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Men's NCAA Tournament 2025: B/R Expert Predictions for Sweet 16
We've all had a few days to catch our breath after the flurry of activity that is the opening weekend of the men's NCAA tournament, but now it's time to shift our focus to the upcoming matchups in the Sweet 16.
With no team seeded lower than a No. 10 and only major-conference teams left standing, Cinderella was not invited to the party this year, but we should be in for some extremely competitive basketball in the second weekend as teams battle for a spot in the Final Four.
Ahead we've provided a rundown of what each of the remaining teams needs to do to win their upcoming showdown, along with picks from our team of college basketball writers on how they expect Thursday and Friday to play out.
Let's set the scene for the Sweet 16.
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (South Region)
1 of 8
Tipoff: Friday, 7:09 p.m. ET (CBS)
Michigan State Wins If: The Spartans have limited opponents to an NCAA-leading 27.8 percent shooting from beyond the arc, and while the deep ball has not been a major weapon for Ole Miss this year, they are 19-of-39 from beyond the arc in their two NCAA tournament wins. That is a big reason they are in the Sweet 16, and taking away that newfound weapon will be a major key to success for Michigan State.
Ole Miss Wins If: Rebounding is a major weakness for the Rebels, and a quick look at the team rebounding margin leaderboard reveals a troubling disparity between Michigan State (+9.4, 2nd in NCAA) and Ole Miss (-4.3, 337th in NCAA) in that department. The Rebels have to find a way to bridge that gap to win this game.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Michigan State
Kerry Miller: Michigan State
Joel Reuter: Michigan State
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 3 Kentucky (Midwest Region)
2 of 8
Tipoff: Friday, 7:39 p.m. ET (TBS)
Tennessee Wins If: The Volunteers lost twice to Kentucky during the regular season, and perimeter defense was their undoing. They allowed the Wildcats to shoot 12-of-24 from three-point range in each of those earlier meetings, and while Kentucky is a solid shooting team, those performances are outliers rather than par for the course.
Kentucky Wins If: It is extremely difficult to beat a team three times in the same season, and the Volunteers figure to make defending the deep ball a priority, so the Wildcats will need to find other ways to attack a Tennessee defense that ranks No. 3 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency metric. Expecting what has worked twice to work a third time will be a recipe for disaster.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Tennessee
Kerry Miller: Tennessee
Joel Reuter: Tennessee
No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 5 Michigan (South Region)
3 of 8
Tipoff: Friday, 9:39 p.m. ET (CBS)
Auburn Wins If: It speaks to Auburn's depth that All-American Johni Broome scored just 22 points over their first two games in the NCAA tournament and they still won those contests by a combined 32 points. That said, he will need to be a major factor on both ends of the floor against 7-footers Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf. Freshman Tahaad Pettiford has emerged as a major X-factor, and he had 23 points, six rebounds and three assists in Saturday's win over Creighton.
Michigan Wins If: Since scoring 21 points against Maryland in the Big Ten tournament semifinals, Danny Wolf has tallied just 31 points on 40.6 percent shooting over his last three games, so he needs to get on track for Michigan to have a real shot at the upset. The Wolverines average 13.9 turnovers per game, and they can't afford to give Auburn that many extra possessions, so taking care of the basketball will be paramount.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Auburn
Kerry Miller: Auburn
Joel Reuter: Auburn
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 4 Purdue (Midwest Region)
4 of 8
Tipoff: Friday, 10:09 p.m. ET (TBS)
Houston Wins If: The Cougars have the best defense in the country, and if they are on their game on that end of the floor, they can go ahead and punch their ticket to the Elite Eight. They are 30-0 when they hold the opposition under 70 points, and they have lost just one game since the beginning of December. Point guard Milos Uzan will be the X-factor on both ends of the floor.
Purdue Wins If: The Boilermakers survived a pair of upset-minded mid-major teams in High Point and McNeese to get to the Sweet 16, but the competition ramps up to another level in this one. Trey Kaufman-Renn is averaging 24.4 points and shooting 58.3 percent from the floor over his last seven games, and he will need to shoulder the load once again while Big Ten Player of the Year Braden Smith does his best to limit mistakes against Houston's stifling defense.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Houston
Kerry Miller: Houston
Joel Reuter: Houston
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 6 BYU (East Region)
5 of 8
Tipoff: Thursday, 7:09 p.m. ET (CBS)
Alabama Wins If: The Crimson Tide are 20-2 when they score more than 85 points, and they are at their best when they can turn the game into a track meet and run up the score. Mark Sears went 10-of-27 from the field and 1-of-9 from three-point range against Robert Morris and Saint Mary's, so he will need to shake off a mild shooting slump.
BYU Wins If: The Cougars are playing as well as anyone right now with an 11-1 record in their last 12 games, and they squeezed out a 91-89 victory over a high-powered Wisconsin offense on Saturday. They have a terrific offense of their own and won't be run out of the gym with a rotation that goes 10 deep, but a defense that ranks No. 71 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency needs to play its best game of the year to slow down the Alabama offense.
Predictions
David Kenyon: BYU
Kerry Miller: BYU
Joel Reuter: Alabama
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 4 Maryland (West Region)
6 of 8
Tipoff: Thursday, 7:39 p.m. ET (TBS)
Florida Wins If: The Gators three-headed guard monster is going to do plenty of damage on the offensive end as usual, but the story of this game will be whether Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu and Thomas Haugh can slow down Derik Queen (6'10", 246 lbs) and Julian Reese (6'9", 230 lbs) on the inside.
Maryland Wins If: As always, the Terrapins need to avoid foul trouble, as the bench played just 21 total minutes in Sunday's win over Colorado State and the starters account for nearly 85 percent of their points this year. The Gators had 12 turnovers in each of their first two games, and a stout Maryland defense needs to take full advantage of their mistakes.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Florida
Kerry Miller: Florida
Joel Reuter: Florida
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 4 Arizona (East Region)
7 of 8
Tipoff: Thursday, 9:39 p.m. ET (CBS)
Duke Wins If: The Blue Devils have looked like a runaway freight train through their first two games, beating Mount St. Mary's and Baylor by a combined 67 points. For all the attention that Cooper Flagg gets, Tyrese Proctor has been the team's best player, tallying 44 points on 13-of-16 from three-point range through two games. No one can beat Duke if it play its game on both ends of the floor.
Arizona Wins If: The Wildcats were one of three teams to hold Duke under 70 points this year when they lost 69-55 to the Blue Devils back on Nov. 22, and finding a way to slow down the offense will be the first step in pulling off an upset. The Wildcats are 11-2 when Caleb Love scores at least 20 points, compared to 2-5 when he is limited to single digits, so his shot will need to be falling.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Duke
Kerry Miller: Duke
Joel Reuter: Duke
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 10 Arkansas (West Region)
8 of 8
Tipoff: 10:09 p.m. ET (TBS)
Texas Tech Wins If: The Red Raiders do a great job protecting the basketball, averaging just 9.7 turnovers per game, and five of their eight losses came in games where they had double-digit turnovers. They need to limit transition opportunities and control the pace of the game by grinding out possessions in the half court to negate the Razorbacks' strengths.
Arkansas Wins If: Aside from successfully hunting turnovers and getting some easy baskets, the Razorbacks also need to find a way to slow down All-American JT Toppin on the inside. He had a dominant 25-point, 12-rebound performance against Drake on Saturday, and he also has 12 blocks in his last 10 games. The status of Adou Thiero and continued ramp up of Boogie Fland will be a major X-factor.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Texas Tech
Kerry Miller: Arkansas
Joel Reuter: Texas Tech
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