Men's NCAA Bracket Predictions 2025: Sleeper Teams That Could Make Deep Runs
Countless words will be written about mid-major sleepers and double-digit seeds that have a chance to play the role of Cinderella in the 2025 men's NCAA tournament, but what about the sleeper teams hiding in the middle of the pack?
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Just two years ago marked the first time in tournament history that no teams from the top three seed lines reached the Final Four, with No. 4 UConn, No. 5 San Diego State, No. 5 Miami and No. 9 Florida Atlantic emerging from their respective regions.
Which teams outside the nation's elite have a chance to go on a similar run this year?
Ahead we've highlighted five squads seeded below the top four seed lines with a legitimate shot at making a run to the national championship.
They might not be Cinderella stories during the opening weekend, but any of these squads reaching the Final Four would likely mean at least one huge upset victory along the way.
BYU Cougars
1 of 5
Seed: No. 6 in East Region
Top 4 Teams in Region: 1. Duke, 2. Alabama, 3. Wisconsin, 4. Arizona
The BYU Cougars (24-9) were regarded as the fifth-best team in the Big 12 this year behind Houston, Texas Tech, Iowa State and Arizona, but they are an extremely dangerous team with real Final Four upside.
Their resume includes eight Quad 1 victories, and they closed out the regular season riding an eight-game winning streak, besting Iowa State, Arizona and Kansas during that stretch before handing Iowa State another loss in their Big 12 tournament opener.
They rank No. 11 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, averaging 17.2 assists and 80.1 points per game, and the lineup boasts a legitimate star in Richie Saunders.
The 6'5" guard averages 16.0 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game, and he has made 74 threes at a blistering 43.3 percent clip. The Cougars are 13-1 when he scores above his 16-point average, and he has a 30-point game to his credit against Arizona State.
With nine players who average at least 16.9 minutes and 5.8 points per game, they are also one of the deepest teams in the field, preparing them well for any potential foul trouble or up-tempo opponent.
Missouri Tigers
2 of 5
Seed: No. 6 in West Region
Top 4 Teams in Region: 1. Florida, 2. St. John's, 3. Texas Tech, 4. Maryland
Any NCAA tournament team coming out of the SEC this year is battle-tested with at least a few marquee wins on the resume, so there are several options to potentially emerge as a surprise Final Four threat from their long list of teams in March Madness.
The Missouri Tigers (22-11) have seven Quad 1 wins, with a road win over Florida and a home victory against Alabama standing as the crown jewels of their resume.
Momentum is not necessarily on their side with five losses in their last seven games, but there is still a lot to like from a metrics standpoint, including the No. 5 offense in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric. They trail only Florida, Auburn, Duke and Alabama on that list.
Duke transfer Mark Mitchell (14.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 25 blocks) provides a presence on the inside, while sharpshooters Caleb Grill (13.7 PPG, 40.5 3PT%, 77 threes) and Tamar Bates (13.4 PPG, 40.0 3PT%, 52 threes) keep teams honest on the perimeter.
On the defensive end, they average 9.4 steals and 14.1 turnovers forced per game, which both rank among the best in this year's tournament field. Anthony Robinson II leads the team with 64 steals and earned SEC All-Defensive team honors.
New Mexico Lobos
3 of 5
Seed: No. 10 in South Region
Top 4 Teams in Region: 1. Auburn, 2. Michigan State, 3. Iowa State, 4. Texas A&M
In recent years, the Mountain West has gone from a perennial one- or two-bid league to routinely putting four or more teams into the NCAA tournament field, and the best of the bunch this year is New Mexico.
The Lobos (26-7) won the regular-season title with a 17-3 record in conference play, with all three losses coming on the road and two of them against fellow NCAA tournament teams.
Only Alabama plays at a more blistering up-and-down pace among this year's tournament teams, and the Lobos are led by two legitimate stars in Mountain West Player of the Year Donovan Dent (20.6 PPG, 6.4 APG) and fellow MWC first-team selection Nelly Junior Joseph (14.0 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG).
They average 81.2 points per game, but it's their defense that might be the strength of the team, checking in No. 19 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency while forcing a staggering 15.3 turnovers per game.
With games against St. John's, UCLA, USC, Arizona State and VCU during non-conference play, they also had more exposure to major-conference competition than most mid-major teams, so there shouldn't be a culture shock in March.
Oregon Ducks
4 of 5
Seed: No. 5 in East Region
Top 4 Teams in Region: 1. Duke, 2. Alabama, 3. Wisconsin, 4. Arizona
There is more to assessing a team's outlook than simply counting Quad 1 victories, but it's also awfully difficult to ignore the fact that the Oregon Ducks (24-9) boast eight such wins.
Five of those came on the road in Big Ten play and another was a home victory against Maryland. However, they also made major noise back in November when they beat Texas A&M, San Diego State and Alabama in a span of five days to win the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas.
After winning a game as a No. 11 seed in last year's tournament, the Ducks made a smooth transition from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten. They climbed as high as No. 9 in the AP poll during a 12-1 start to the year and won eight straight before falling to Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament.
Former 5-star recruit Nate Bittle (14.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.2 BPG) has taken a massive step forward as a senior after a broken wrist and illness limited him to just five games last season. He had 22 points, 12 rebounds and two blocks against Michigan State on Friday.
A strong track record away from home and against top-tier competition, along with a late-season hot streak, make the Ducks capable of outplaying their seeding and making a deep run.
Saint Mary's Gaels
5 of 5
Seed: No. 7 in East Region
Top 4 Teams in Region: 1. Duke, 2. Alabama, 3. Wisconsin, 4. Arizona
The Saint Mary's Gaels (28-5) are in the NCAA tournament for the fourth year in a row, but after receiving three consecutive No. 5 seeds, they find themselves further down the seeding line this time around.
The Gaels went 17-1 in conference play, with their lone loss coming on the road against San Francisco, as they took both regular-season matchups against rival Gonzaga. It's never easy to beat a team three times, and they ended up on the wrong end of a 58-51 score against the Zags in the WCC title game, but they were the class of the conference this season.
What makes them such a tough draw is the snail-like pace at which they play, checking in 359th out of 364 teams in KenPom's adjusted tempo metric and limiting opponents to 60.7 points per game.
That low point total is not simply a result of their tempo, as they rank No. 8 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, holding opponents to 40.8 percent from the field and 30.8 percent from three-point range.
Throw in a veteran point guard in Augustas Marciulionis (14.3 PPG, 6.1 APG) steering the ship, and the Gaels are in a good position to avenge last year's first-round upset at the hands of No. 12 seed Grand Canyon.
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