Men's NCAA Bracketology 2025: Latest Seed and Region Projections for All 68 Teams

Selection Sunday for the 2025 men's NCAA tournament is fast approaching HERE!

Thanks to everyone for following along throughout the week. Hope you loved the graphics and the commentary. Best of luck in your bracket pools!

Here is the projected 2025 men's NCAA tournament field, FINAL as of 4:30 p.m. ET Sunday.

(Regions are presented in descending order of overall seed of the No. 1 seed, meaning Auburn is No. 1 overall, Duke is No. 2, Houston is No. 3 and Florida is No. 4.)

One Final Bit of Business

Apologies if you were waiting for the Sunday morning scrub update that was promised. I did the scrub, but opted to wait until after the SEC championship to actually post any changes, as a Tennessee win would've shaken things up. Instead, Florida won and the No. 1 seed line feels about as cut and dry as I can ever remember a No. 1 seed line being. (Could be some debate on the order, but it's going to be those four teams.)

From our scrub, only two minor changes: Wofford (as suspected last night) moves up to a No. 15 seed, with Bryant the hard luck loser slipping to a No. 16 seed. Also, Grand Canyon moves up to a No. 13 seed, replacing Lipscomb on that line. GCU had a slightly better resume than previously projected WAC champ Utah Valley, hence the change.

Choosing to leave in the following note from Saturday morning on how I came to that conclusion on UNC. One note/conspiracy theory not included in that miniature rant: The selection committee always find a way to squeeze in one more ACC team.

See: 2016/2018/2021 Syracuse, 2017 Wake Forest, 2022 Notre Dame, 2023 Pitt/NC State, 2024 Virginia. The only year in the past eight that we didn't have a bit of a controversial ACC inclusion was in 2019, and the trade-off was the ACC got the Nos. 1, 2 and 3 overall seeds.

Saturday Morning Bubble Scrub / Bid Thief Update

While most of the country was sound asleep in their beds at about 2:30 in the morning on the East Coast, the bubble shrunk by one spot in Las Vegas.

After Boise State upset New Mexico in the first Mountain West semifinal, Colorado State knocked off Utah State in the second one, meaning that one of those teams that just on the outside looking in is now guaranteed a spot in the field. (As the No. 2 seed in that tournament to Boise State's No. 5 seed, Colorado State is the projected champion, slotting in as a No. 12 seed.)

While it's entirely possible that one of New Mexico, Utah State or San Diego State will be kicked out to make room for BSU/CSU, that bubble shrinkage is probably bad news for one of those power conference teams with 13-15 losses on a resume full of warts.

With updated data this morning, we dove into the muck and came up with...

North Carolina last team in; Texas first team out.

Now, keep in mind, it still might not matter. Save some of your outrage until we see what happens in the Big West, Atlantic 10 and American Athletic Conferences, where we plausibly could have more bid thieves. (Definitely a bid thief if Memphis doesn't win the AAC.)

For the time being, though, our justification is that North Carolina simply has a cleaner resume. (It's also not lost on us that this year's committee chair is UNC AD Bubba Cunningham, who isn't allowed to participate in the UNC votes, but most certainly is participating in the debates leading up to the votes.)

Yes, Texas' seven Quad 1 wins destroys North Carolina's 1-12 record against that group. With Quad 1 wins being the primary data point that most of the national media pushes, it seems preposterous to have the Tar Heels ahead of the Longhorns.

In all seven metrics on the team sheets, though, North Carolina is ahead of Texas. And it's more than just Quad 1 wins that matter, or else Minnesota would be in the at-large conversation with its seven victories of that ilk.

UNC is 8-0 vs. Quad 2, where Texas is 3-5. The Tar Heels are also 16-13 against the top three Quads, to Texas' mark of 12-15.

To the best of my knowledge, in the NET era, no team with 16+ wins against the top three Quads and an SOR rank of 40 or better (UNC's is 36) has missed the dance. Also, no team in the NET era to finish multiple games below .500 against the top three Quads (Texas is three games below) has received an at-large bid.

Now, throw in the nonconference problem for Texas. While the Tar Heels faced the fifth-toughest NCSOS, Texas' ranked 285th, its best win coming against NET No. 132 NC State. (Which UNC also had two wins against.)

Without question, Texas did more damage than North Carolina once conference play started. But if there's one thing I've learned from decades of doing this, it's that when the selection committee can send a message to a bubble team for not scheduling more aggressively, it's probably going to do so. The committee is mostly made up of athletic directors who know as well as anyone what goes into building a nonconference schedule, and they have little patience for the teams who try to put together a path of least resistance and want to sneak into the field in spite of it.

All that said, this is nowhere near final. Xavier still warrants plenty of consideration, and we're far from convinced that Indiana or Baylor is safely in the field. We'll take another hard look at that bubble cut line Sunday morning with what should be a clearer picture of how many spots are available. (Though, the AAC championship on Sunday looms extremely large, provided Memphis wins its semifinal today.)

Full Seed List (strongest on left, weakest on right):

No. 1 Line: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida

No. 2 Line: Tennessee, Alabama, St. John's, Michigan State

No. 3 Line: Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Texas A&M

No. 4 Line: Michigan, Arizona, Iowa State, Maryland

No. 5 Line: Purdue, Oregon, Clemson, BYU

No. 6 Line: Illinois, UCLA, Memphis, Ole Miss

No. 7 Line: Gonzaga, Missouri, Kansas, Louisville

No. 8 Line: Saint Mary's, Creighton, Marquette, Connecticut

No. 9 Line: Mississippi State, New Mexico, Drake, Georgia

No. 10 Line: UC San Diego, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Utah State

No. 11 Line: Arkansas, VCU, Vanderbilt, San Diego State/Baylor

No. 12 Line: Indiana/North Carolina, Colorado State, Liberty, McNeese

No. 13 Line: Yale, High Point, Akron, Grand Canyon

No. 14 Line: Lipscomb, UNC-Wilmington, Montana, Troy

No. 15 Line: Robert Morris, Wofford, Norfolk State, Omaha

No. 16 Line: Bryant, SIU-Edwardsville, American, Mount St. Mary's, Alabama State, Saint Francis

First Five Out: Xavier, Texas, Boise State, UC Irvine, Dayton