NBA Fraud Meter: 5 Contenders Nobody Should Bet On
Perceived parity throughout the NBA paints the picture of a wide-open 2025 championship race. Is it really so wide-open, though?
As the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder continue to, generally speaking, run roughshod over the rest of the league, it's time we redefine the barrier for Finals-bound potential.
There is plenty of parity inside the Association's secondary tiers. Indistinguishable lines seemingly separate 10 or more teams. But the tippy top of the NBA's hierarchy feels more closed off. It is through this restrictive lens that we will identify the worst title bets now that March is underway.
This exercise is all about prospective value. At this point, it will be a genuine surprise if a champion is crowned outside Boston, Cleveland or Oklahoma City. The question at hand: Relative to that landscape, which teams are not providing an intriguing (read: lucrative) enough payout to be considered wise investments?
*Note: All 2025 NBA title odds come courtesy of FanDuel.
Dallas Mavericks (+10000)
1 of 5
The Dallas Mavericks have zero business ranking ahead of teams like the Houston Rockets (+13000), Minnesota Timberwolves (+13000) and Indiana Pacers (+15000) on the championship-odds picture. That remains true even if you give their post-Luka Dončić vision the benefit of the doubt. (Which...yeah.)
Dallas has the size, physicality and versatility at full strength to give opposing offenses hell. Its full-strength group may even be uniquely built to rough up heavyweights like the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Denver Nuggets.
The operative phrase here is "full strength." The Mavs are banged up on the frontline beyond comprehension, with no end to the shallowness in sight.
Assuming they get healthier ahead of the playoffs does little to improve their outlook. Never mind that they're tracking toward play-in territory. They are going to have so few reps with Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively II, specifically, playing together.
This is a real concern when considering how many of Dallas' core lineups previously featured four-out spacing. Their new-look best combinations won't—unless they're rolling with one big. The trickle-down effect of having P.J. Washington functioning like a 3 on offense also cannot be written off. Nor can the lack of primary creation outside Kyrie Irving.
Los Angeles Lakers (+1800)
2 of 5
Nobody should actively want to face the Los Angeles Lakers in a playoff series so long as Luka Dončić and LeBron James are both in uniform. They are both high-IQ postseason psychopaths capable of manipulating most defenses even when they're not operating at 100 percent.
Top-five championship odds is nevertheless a stretch. The Dončić trade is immediately tantalizing—and already paying dividends. But it remains a move geared more toward the future, particularly when the roster is so incomplete.
Los Angeles is holding its own with some smaller-ball lineups, playing what can only be called shockingly good defense after jettisoning their two best bodies at the less-glamorous end, in Max Christie and Anthony Davis. The Lakers are first in points allowed per possession since AD last suited up for them.
But is this really a defense you can trust in the playoffs? With this center rotation? More critically, is this a team you can trust when Luka, despite turning in a couple of good performances, doesn't yet look like First Team All-NBA Luka?
Answers to these questions could vary if the Lakers were laying 50-to-1 odds. Or even a 25-to-1 line. They're not.
Memphis Grizzlies (+3600)
3 of 5
Familiar vulnerabilities continue to compromise the Memphis Grizzlies' championship stock. Especially on the offensive end.
Memphis ranks in the top seven of points scored per possession. But its success is heavily predicated on transition and second-chance opportunities. Those are among the strengths most likely to be neutralized over the course of a seven-game series.
That is problematic for a Grizzlies squad without an elite half-court attack. They rank 13th in half-court efficiency on the season, and that standing dips all the way to 24th when facing teams with top-10 point differentials.
Jaren Jackson Jr.'s improvement as a self-starter looms large here. It is far from a panacea when Ja Morant looks less than transcendent this year, and when Memphis' three-point volume remains ill-fit to adequately open up the floor versus set defenses.
This all says nothing of the wing defense. The Grizzlies are getting the job done now. Will that remain true when rookie Jaylen Wells and Vince Williams Jr. are saddled with outsized superstar assignments?
Given Memphis' overarching question marks, if not outright limitations, it should be laying something closer to the Houston Rockets' line (+13000).
Milwaukee Bucks (+5000)
4 of 5
Kyle Kuzma and Kevin Porter Jr. are so far proving to be more valuable on-court additions than most anticipated. Kuzma has increased his off-ball movement and defensive intensity, and the presence of both has allowed head coach Doc Rivers to experiment with sitting Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard at the same time.
To that end, there's little use quibbling over the Milwaukee Bucks' championship-odds rank.
They have the fourth-best line in the East, which feels correct, give or take a spot. But a +5000 return isn't nearly worthwhile enough when weighing their flaws.
Bankable playmakers are hard to come by after Lillard and Antetokounmpo. Khris Middleton may not be Khris Middleton anymore, but he was still one of their three best initiators.
Milwaukee's offense also ranks dead last in points scored per possession during fourth quarters. And the defense is 28th in points allowed per possession versus top-10 offenses—a real issue when the Bucks will have to go through two of the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks to exit the Eastern Conference.
New York Knicks (+1800)
5 of 5
Nearly three-quarters of the way through the regular season, we know who the New York Knicks are: a really good team that's eons away from genuine championship contention.
Virtually every defensive concern is valid. The Knicks are 30th in points allowed per possession against top-10 offenses and only improve to 26th if you filter out their open-night shellacking at the hands of the Boston Celtics.
For as valuable as Karl-Anthony Towns' offense is at the center position, his defense can be even more damaging. The Celtics (11-of-15) and Cavs (12-of-13) this season are shooting a combined 82.8 percent against him at the rim. In the Boston matchup specifically, this barely scratches the surface of his issues.
Mitchell Robinson's return will help some. It is not a cure-all. He hasn't played in over a year, there's no guarantee sliding Towns to the 4 pans out defensively, and even if it does, the Knicks sacrifice spacing by leaning on dual-big setups. Especially if they try to buy minutes with Josh Hart in those situations.
Having tough-shot-maker extraordinaire Jalen Brunson leaves New York with margin for error. But its offense hasn't exactly set the world on fire versus Boston or Cleveland. And more fundamentally, because the Knicks have failed to beat the Celtics or Cavs even once thus far, there's no reason to believe anything they do, with or without Robinson, will lead to defeating one or both of them four times in seven tries.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
Unless otherwise cited, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac. Draft-pick obligations via RealGM.
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