5 High-Seed Teams Most at Risk of Losing Early in 2025 Men’s NCAA Tournament

The thrill of earning a high seed in March Madness can quickly vanish after the opening round tips off.

Last year, No. 3 Kentucky and No. 4 Auburn—in addition to a pair of No. 5 seeds—saw their men's NCAA tournament hopes dashed in the first game. Oakland and Yale, respectively, shocked the SEC programs and advanced to the second round.

Those kinds of results are not mathematically inevitable, but they typically happen.

Not since 2017 has the Big Dance not included a top-four seed getting knocked out immediately.

The following teams—all no worse than a No. 4 seed on the latest Bracket Matrix update—may soon be on upset alert during the opening weekend.

Arizona Wildcats

David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Caleb Love

When a team's top player is also incredibly streaky, the potential of an exasperating result is ever-present.

Such is the reality for Arizona, which has a talented roster that includes eight players scoring eight-plus points per game and three with three-plus assists. The rotation is built around standout guard Caleb Love, who's never seen a shot he couldn't make.

That, of course, is the point.

Love has connected on just 30.2 percent of his 7.9 threes per night and only 38.0 percent overall. Five of Arizona's nine losses have coincided with him managing less than 10 points.

If he struggles in the eventual first-round matchup, the 'Cats may be headed home early as a top-four seed yet again.

Kentucky Wildcats

Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Lamont Butler

By no means, is this a reflection of Kentucky's shocking loss to Oakland last year. There's a new coach and a completely overhauled roster in Lexington right now.

But the March Madness result could be the same.

Despite all of those offseason changes, UK still uses a fast-paced, high-scoring style but struggles on the defensive end. It has yielded 80-plus points in 11 games, and those outings have accounted for seven of the team's nine losses.

The good news is Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson are both nearing a return from injury. With a healthier backcourt, the Wildcats should have an improved margin for error.

Kentucky's shaky defense, nevertheless, will linger as a concern.

Purdue Boilermakers

Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Braden Smith

During the last four NCAA tournaments, Purdue has earned a top-four seed in every one. Those appearances have ended with losses in the first round, Sweet 16, first round—memorably, as a top-seeded team—and national championship.

So, you know, who knows?

The greater issue, though, is the Boilermakers are sliding. They've dropped four straight games, including an ugly 15-point setback at rival Indiana. The combination of poor interior defense and not forcing turnovers has been disastrous.

In theory, the Boilers have too much talent to not bounce back in time for the Big Dance.

But we might need to see that to believe in Purdue.

Texas A&M Aggies

Jack Gorman/Getty Images

Buzz Williams

Texas A&M faces a similar but opposing outlook.

While the defense is typically excellent—opponents shoot below 40 percent on the year—the Aggies are an adventure on the other end.

Not only is A&M ranked 288th on two-point attempts, but it is also 337th from beyond the arc. The Aggies' saving grace is leading the nation in offensive rebounding rate, along with a stout defense that forces turnovers at a healthy clip.

However, it can hardly be said enough: The randomness of a one-game sample is not kind to inconsistent teams.

Texas A&M might hold an opening-round opponent to, like, 57 points in a soul-crushing game for a lower seed. Conversely, the Aggies may be begging for an upset if they struggle to find second-chance opportunities.

Wisconsin Badgers

John Fisher/Getty Images

John Tonje

Wisconsin has a reputation of being a defense-driven program, but the current team is known for its offense.

The fun part? Everybody shoots. All nine members of the Badgers' rotation take at least 1.3 three-pointers per game, and six connect at 35 percent or better. Max Klesmit is hitting a shockingly low 28.8 percent this season but holds a 35.3 career mark as a volume option, too.

In the wrong matchup, though, UW’s profile can be exploited.

The team’s reliance on perimeter shots—24th nationally in three-point attempt rate—is the highest among projected top-four seeds. Wisconsin is also 333rd in steal rate and 343rd in block rate.

If the Badgers go cold on the outside, their average defense will be challenged to limit the damage.