Chad Mendes vs. Conor McGregor: A Full Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC 189 is just days away.
Hopefully, you've accepted Jose Aldo's injury as fate—as an opportunity for the UFC to finally test Conor McGregor against the sort of competitor that MMA fans have been calling for.
Last time out, McGregor was busy showcasing his skills in front of thousands of Irish faithful at the TD Garden in Boston. He said he'd finish Dennis Siver in two minutes. It ended up taking him two rounds, but most of us were content with his performance anyway. He brought all his tools with him, showing us that, at the very least, he was ready for a step up in competition—"competition" in the form of UFC featherweight champion.
But, as we all know by now, one swift spinning back kick to the ribs would be that title fight's undoing.
In stepped Chad Mendes to save the day.
He is only one fight removed from his second loss to Aldo—albeit a much closer title fight than the first. He brings abilities into the cage that none of McGregor's previous opponents have ever brought. Most of us expect this to be McGregor's biggest test in the UFC—although it may not say much, considering how swiftly he's run through most of his opponents in the Octagon.
In what will likely end up being the latest platform for McGregor's fanatics and detractors to voice their opinions, let us break down Saturday's main event.
Striking
1 of 5
Conor McGregor is the best striker in the UFC's featherweight division.
That statement is not only founded upon the sort of tactics he brings into the cage but also hinged upon the sheer physical advantages he holds over just about any 145-pound opponent the UFC can place in front of him. He's a rangy fighter, boasting 74 inches of reach.
| Rank | Name | Reach |
| Champion | Jose Aldo | 70" |
| 1. | Frankie Edgar | 72" |
| 2. | Chad Mendes | 66" |
| 4. | Ricardo Lamas | 68" |
And that's what gives McGregor the confidence to throw such unorthodox strikes—the idea that few men are capable of getting past that long range to put him in any sort of viable danger. So he throws with little caution; he throws with conviction.
Unfortunately for Chad Mendes, he won't be included on that ultra-exclusive list of fighters who are rangier than McGregor. Mendes will be giving up eight inches of reach to his UFC 189 opponent. If anything, speed is the only advantage Mendes brings in the striking department of this fight.
Edge: McGregor
Grappling
2 of 5
This is the slide all of Chad Mendes' supporters will point to. This is the argument most MMA fans have brought up once they realized the UFC was dressing him to the nines in preparation for something bigger.
He's a striker who's fought other lesser strikers. He's never stepped into the cage against a fighter capable of keeping him on his back for more than a few seconds.
But just as the critics were getting louder and louder over what they believed was a premature title shot, Mendes stepped up to the plate ready to advertise all of his wrestling plaques. A two-time NCAA All-American at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and 2008 NCAA Championships runner-up, "Money" Mendes looks to cash in on this big opportunity—in a financial and competitive sense, so to speak.
There hasn't been a UFC or WEC opponent Mendes hasn't been able to take down (assuming he would have done so, if not for knocking them out first). And no one has taken him down in turn, either.
Chances are, those streaks won't break come Saturday night. Be ready and warned: McGregor will show us how quickly and often he can get back up. And he'll have to, because I'm fairly certain he won't be able to throw wild kicks from his back.
Edge: Mendes
Submissions
3 of 5
This is a bit more than the cliche striker-versus-grappler bout MMA fans and writers like to talk about.
But make no mistake, neither man is a submission specialist. Not even close. There isn't too much data to work with, considering both fighters only have three combined submission victories between them.
What we do have to work with is McGregor's pair of submission losses. Because it shows something inside of him that most opponents should look to exploit. It's not a lapse in submission defense as much as it is a lapse in mental toughness. Now, it'd be unfair to neglect the sort of progression McGregor has made in his game since those losses to Artemij Sitenkov and Joseph Duffy. His style is more fluid, and his ground game is much more improved.
Regardless of the progression, McGregor tapped. He quit—twice, in fact. And proven quitters don't get the nod in this department without superb submission skills of their own.
Edge: Mendes
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X-Factors
4 of 5
McGregor: Limiting Kicks
Here's where the fight might get challenging for McGregor, because we've seen him throw those deadly spinning back kicks to just about every vulnerable part of an opponent's body. He throws kicks early. He throws kicks often.
And that's going to be a problem for McGregor unless he follows a strict game plan of limiting the number of kicks he throws in this fight—especially the ones that fans have come to love.
Choosing to lean heavily on his flashy kicks in hopes of dropping the UFC's No. 2-ranked featherweight could ultimately lead to his demise—a demise that sees him on his back for the better part of 25 minutes. And something tells me the 2,500 or so Irish fans didn't spend lots of money on expensive boarding passes, expensive hotel reservations and expensive fight-night tickets to watch their pride and joy come back to Ireland empty-handed.
Mendes: Closing Distance
As mentioned three slides back, Chad Mendes is giving up a whopping eight inches in his interim title fight Saturday night. It'll be the first time he's given up such a reach advantage to any UFC opponent, with the next closest coming in the shape of now-welterweight Cody McKenzie and his 72-inch reach. It didn't take Mendes long to break through the defensive range, dropping McKenzie in just 30 seconds.
Alas, McGregor is not McKenzie.
You can almost be assured he'll have a tougher time getting past the extended right arm McGregor likes to use to keep opponents at bay. Especially considering the Irishman is faster and more skilled than McKenzie ever was.
Closing the distance is the only way Mendes can put on that shiny interim strap. If he stays on the outside, he'll in prime real estate for McGregor to throw whatever wild punches and kicks he chooses to throw.
Prediction
5 of 5
Mendes got the edge in two of three categories. He's a better wrestler, and he's never shown any indication of his ability to give up.
But every round starts on the feet, and McGregor will have at least one opportunity to show what sort of strengths he has over the two-time title contender who struggled to keep the champion down for more than a minute or so in either one of his title attempts. Again, Mendes is a phenomenal wrestler, but if he doesn't stick to that game plan—a game plan that would force just about every fan in that arena to heckle his ears off—he won't get it done.
That's not to say he absolutely won't get it done, because this fight feels as much of a toss-up as any main event pay-per-view since Hendricks vs. Lawler II in December.
Gut instinct says we see Aldo vs. McGregor unfold before our eyes before the calendar year comes to a close.
| Striking | √ | |
| √ | Grappling | |
| √ | Submissions |
| Prediction | McGregor defeats Mendes via TKO |
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