10 Biggest Bust Candidates Among MLB Pitchers for 2025 Season
The way baseball statistics are interpreted has changed, with more readily available advanced metrics for anything and everything surrounding on-field production.
The days of simply looking at a player's surface-level stats and expecting those numbers to be duplicated are a thing of the past, and things such as expected ERA, FIP, batting average on balls in play and batted-ball metrics have proved to be a good indicator of potential regression.
Ahead, we've highlighted 10 pitchers who enter the 2025 season as potential bust candidates due to one or more red flags in their advanced metrics. And in some cases, the regression already started during a slow second half on the heels of a great first half.
This is no guarantee that any of these players is going to struggle during the upcoming season, and the term "bust" can mean a lot of different things, but it would be wise to temper expectations for these 10 names.
In case you missed it: 10 Biggest Bust Candidates Among MLB Hitters for 2025 Season
Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds
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Why Expectations are High
After a strong rookie season in 2023, left-hander Andrew Abbott was a staple in the Cincinnati rotation last year, finishing 10-10 with a 3.72 ERA and 114 strikeouts in 138 innings while finishing fourth on the team with 3.3 WAR. Still only 25 years old, he is expected to be a key cog in what should be a strong rotation top-to-bottom for the Reds this year.
Why He Could Be a Bust
While his 3.72 ERA looks good at surface-level, it was backed by a 5.04 FIP that was the fifth-highest among 126 pitchers who tallied at least 100 innings of work in 2024. With a strikeout rate under 20 percent, he relies heavily on soft contact, giving him far less margin for error. With top prospect Rhett Lowder waiting in the wings, Abbott may not be afforded a long runway if he struggles early.
Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels
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Why Expectations are High
Tyler Anderson was an All-Star for the second time in three years in 2024, rebounding from a rocky first season with the Angels to post a 3.81 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 142 strikeouts in 179.1 innings. His 3.1 WAR was the second-highest mark of his career and trailed only shortstop Zach Neto among all players on the Los Angeles roster.
Why He Could Be a Bust
A 4.66 FIP painted a far less encouraging picture of Anderson's work last season, and he ranked in the bottom half of the league in expected ERA (30th percentile) and expected batting average allowed (39th percentile). His first-half numbers (19 GS, 2.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) also propped up an ugly second-half performance (12 GS, 5.43 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) that could be a preview of what's to come in 2025.
Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros
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Why Expectations are High
A spring injury to Justin Verlander opened the door for Ronel Blanco to break camp with a spot in the Houston Astros rotation last year, and he tossed a no-hitter against the Toronto Blue Jays in his first start of the season. That proved to be the start of a breakout year, and he finished 13-6 with a 2.80 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 166 strikeouts in 167.1 innings.
Why He Could Be a Bust
No qualified starter had a better BABIP than the .220 mark Blanco logged in 2024, and his middle-of-the-road batted-ball metrics suggest he is due for significant regression. His 2.80 ERA was backed by a 4.15 FIP and a 4.00 expected ERA, giving him a profile that fits better at the back of the rotation, but he will likely be slotted into the No. 3 starter role on a team with playoff aspirations.
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Bowden Francis, Toronto Blue Jays
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Why Expectations are High
A bright spot in a largely disappointing 2024 season for the Toronto Blue Jays, right-hander Bowden Francis finished with a 3.30 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 103.2 innings spanning 13 starts and 14 relief appearances. The 28-year-old had a 2.92 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 77 innings as a starter, and he will start the 2025 season with a clear spot in the starting rotation.
Why He Could Be a Bust
Francis had a .211 BABIP last season that was the lowest among all pitchers who logged at least 100 innings, which, coupled with his less-than-stellar average exit velocity allowed (89.1 mph, 41st percentile), is a recipe for significant regression. He posted a 5.73 ERA over 31 innings in his six starts against teams that made the playoffs.
Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Why Expectations are High
Since taking his lumps with a 6.17 ERA over 23 starts in 2021, Mitch Keller has emerged as a reliable homegrown starter for the Pittsburgh Pirates. The 28-year-old has a 4.13 ERA in 531.1 innings over the past three seasons, and he was an All-Star in 2023. The Pirates rewarded him with a five-year, $77 million deal prior to last season, and he now looks like a key piece of a rotation on the rise alongside Paul Skenes and Jared Jones.
Why He Could Be a Bust
Last year's hard-hit rate (39.3 percent), average exit velocity (88.8 mph) and expected ERA (4.31) all represented Keller's worst marks since he struggled through the 2021 season. His fastball was also noticeably less effective, with his velocity (95.2 to 94.4 mph), whiff rate (30.2 to 24.0 percent) and batting average against (.175 to .257) all trending in the wrong direction. His 5.65 ERA in 12 starts after the All-Star break could be indicative of what's to come in 2025.
Reynaldo López, Atlanta Braves
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Why Expectations are High
The Atlanta Braves struck gold when they signed Reynaldo López to a three-year, $30 million contract last offseason and moved him back into a starting role after three years of pitching primarily in relief. He finished with a 1.99 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 148 strikeouts in 135.2 innings, earning his first All-Star selection and finishing 11th in NL Cy Young voting during a 5.1-WAR season.
Why He Could Be a Bust
López had the largest gap between his ERA (1.99) and expected ERA (3.94) of any qualified starting pitcher. That no doubt stems from his lackluster showing in hard-hit rate (42.2%, 20th percentile) and average exit velocity allowed (89.9 mph, 23rd percentile). He also consistently pitched his way out of trouble with an 87.0 percent left on base rate that was the highest of any pitcher with 100 innings pitched. He can still be an effective back-of-the-rotation starter, but significant regression from last year might be unavoidable.
Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies
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Why Expectations are High
A top prospect during his time in the Athletics farm system, left-hander Jesús Luzardo took some time to find success in the big leagues. He turned a corner after he was traded to the Miami Marlins with a solid 2022 season, then truly broke out the following year when he finished 10-10 with a 3.58 ERA and 208 strikeouts in 178.2 innings. His 2024 season was derailed by injuries, but he is still only 27 years old and controllable through 2026.
Why He Could Be a Bust
Prior to being shut down for the season last year, Luzardo had a 5.00 ERA in 66.2 innings, and his strikeout rate plummeted from 28.1 to 21.2 percent. The Phillies don't need him to be anything more than a serviceable No. 5 starter thanks to their stacked rotation, but expecting him to return to his 2023 numbers might be a stretch given his peripherals. Giving up young shortstop Starlyn Caba to acquire him could be a move the Phillies come to regret.
Charlie Morton, Baltimore Orioles
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Why Expectations are High
Durability has been an issue for the Baltimore Orioles starting rotation in recent years, and that is an area where Charlie Morton should be able to help. The veteran right-hander has made at least 30 starts and logged at least 160 innings in each of the past four seasons while pitching for the Atlanta Braves. He has also missed plenty of bats along the way, averaging 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings in 686.1 innings of work during that span. The O's inked him to a one-year, $15 million deal in January.
Why He Could Be a Bust
At 41 years old, Morton is still a capable back-of-the-rotation workhorse, but the Orioles signed him to try to ease the loss of ace Corbin Burnes in free agency. Things started trending in the wrong direction after the All-Star break last year when he logged a 4.37 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 13 starts, and he dealt with a finger issue down the stretch that kept him out of action in October. If he were signed to simply be back-end depth, expectations might be different, but he is penciled into the No. 3 starter job on a playoff hopeful.
David Peterson, New York Mets
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Why Expectations are High
After an inconsistent first four seasons in the majors where he logged a 4.51 ERA over 333 innings of work, David Peterson was one of the breakout starters of the 2024 season. The 29-year-old went 10-3 with a 2.90 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 101 strikeouts in 121 innings, logging 2.9 WAR over 21 starts while providing the Mets rotation a major boost. The No. 20 overall pick in the 2017 draft, he has a top-prospect pedigree and is controllable through the 2026 season.
Why He Could Be a Bust
A couple duds in September against the Blue Jays (4.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER) and Phillies (3.2 IP, 8 H, 4 ER) likely played a role in Peterson being used in relief during the first two rounds of the playoffs, and he allowed six hits and four walks in 3.2 innings as the starter in Game 5 of the NLCS. His 2.20 strikeout-to-walk ratio ranked 107th among 126 pitchers who logged at least 100 innings, and his batted-ball metrics ranked into the bottom third across the board. Expecting him to be more than a No. 4/5 starter in 2025 might be wishful thinking.
Justin Verlander, San Francisco Giants
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Why Expectations are High
One of the best pitchers of his generation and a sure-fire future Hall of Famer, Justin Verlander is just two years removed from winning 2022 AL Cy Young honors and a year removed from going 13-8 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 144 strikeouts in 162.1 innings in his age-40 season. He had a season to forget in 2024, but it stands to reason that a pitcher of his caliber would simply hang it up if he believed he didn't have anything left in the tank. On a one-year, $15 million deal, he represents a low-risk, high-reward addition to the San Francisco Giants rotation.
Why He Could Be a Bust
A 4.78 FIP does suggest Verlander is in line for some positive regression relative to his 5.48 ERA last season, but that's still a ugly number. His 93.5 mph fastball velocity and 18.7 percent strikeout rate were both career-low marks, and his curveball was absolutely shelled to the tune of a .340 average and .560 slugging percentage. The 41-year-old has adapted his game as his stuff has diminished, but the fall-off might be too drastic this time around to salvage. From a team standpoint, signing him as the only outside addition to counter the loss of Blake Snell is also a recipe for disappointment.
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