Robin Lopez Signing Isn't Glamorous, but Gives New York Knicks a Solid Center
At the beginning of the offseason, the New York Knicks surely intended to use their cap space on the next Madison Square Garden superstar, a player who could team up with Carmelo Anthony and help will them back into the Eastern Conference's playoff picture.
That hasn't happened.
The Knicks' offers for top-tier free agents have largely been rebuffed, but Phil Jackson, still fairly new to his front-office role, has reacted rather nicely. Instead of seeking out the splashy moves that might not do much to turn around this downtrodden organization's fate, he's made smart additions and signed respectable players to reasonable contracts. Arron Afflalo was the first, and Robin Lopez is the latest.
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According to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, the floppy-haired center will be coming to the Big Apple and making $54 million over the next four years:
If your first reaction is to scoff, try to refrain from doing so.
Handing out a $54 million contract sounds like a bigger deal than it actually is, based on the expected skyrocketing cap in the coming seasons. We don't yet know the details of how his salary will be divvied out over the next four years, but let's just assume that he'll be making an even $13.5 million through 2018-19.
Next year, $13.5 million will be a substantial cap hit, though it's not like the Knicks had many better options to spend the money on right now. But as soon as the 2016-17 campaign, he'll be eating up a significantly more minuscule portion of New York's salary allowances.
| 2015-16 | $13.5 | $67.1 | 20.1% |
| 2016-17 | $13.5 | $89 | 15.2% |
| 2017-18 | $13.5 | $108 | 12.5% |
| 2018-19 | $13.5 | $100 | 13.5% |
Doesn't seem so bad in that context, does it?
This time of year, it's important to adjust our thinking to the changing circumstances. That happens every year, but the adjustment needs to be significantly larger this offseason, because of the television deal and the subsequently jumping cap.
As Adi Joseph of Sporting News suggests, Lopez is basically going to be making backup money in a few years, even if his contract currently seems rather exorbitant:
The money is exceedingly reasonable, but money may not be the only reason to initially scoff at Jackson's latest signing. Lopez doesn't have a sterling reputation as one of the league's best centers, so he's not exactly a glamorous addition to a team that tried so desperately to make a cannonball-sized splash in the free-agent pool.
Fear not. Lopez just hasn't yet received the recognition he's earned after laboring away for the Portland Trail Blazers under the shadows of Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge.
The center's traditional numbers don't look particularly impressive. During the 2014-15 campaign, which we now know was his final go-round in Rip City, he averaged only 9.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.3 steals and 1.4 blocks while shooting 53.5 percent from the field.
But those numbers fail to fully encapsulate his value, largely because they don't give him credit for his impressive work on the defensive end.
This half of the Lopez twins wasn't particularly impressive when trying to prevent points fresh out of Stanford, but he's consistently improved during his time in the Association. Good as he was in 2013-14, he was even better during this past season.
According to defensive box plus/minus, which shows the difference per 100 possessions between the player in question and a league-average defender on an average team, he was actually one of the better defensive bigs in the league. Only 10 centers who spent more than 1,600 minutes on the court finished with a higher score.
Looking at his work on a more granular level, Lopez has emerged as one of the league's better rim protectors.
Not only was he one of just 17 players in the league who faced at least eight shots per game at the hoop, per NBA.com's SportVU data, but he also held opponents to 48 percent shooting in that area. The list of players who were even more stingy is relatively short: Rudy Gobert, Serge Ibaka, Nerlens Noel, Hassan Whiteside, Jonas Valanciunas, Tim Duncan and DeMarcus Cousins.
Lopez's value isn't just limited to the point-preventing end, either.
He's a strong rebounder who will look particularly good in New York, where he won't be playing alongside anyone nearly as good at crashing the glass as Aldridge. And beyond that, he's one of the league's best pick-and-roll threats, thanks to his timing and aggressive cuts toward the rim.
On offense, Lopez's game is far from glamorous.
He's not going to stretch out the court with his shooting, even though his keen understanding of angles and positioning has a similar effect at times. He's not going to put up loads of points, and he's not a particularly strong distributor (which could be problematic in New York's triangle offense).
But, as Seth Rosenthal explains for Posting & Toasting, he sets a plethora of effective screens:
"Here's what Robin Lopez does on offense: He screens. He screens constantly. He screens on the ball and off it, then he rolls hard to the rim (a LOT), or he sinks into space then plows into position.
It would behoove the Knicks to work some of that old high pick-and-roll back into their offense (and based on the end of last season, I suspect Derek Fisher is happy to do so), because Lopez has some...well, some Tyson Chandler-like qualities as a threat coming off screens.
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Something as simple as this is rather significant when done so well. Defenses might not have to respect Lopez as a spot-up shooter, but they're still subconsciously aware of where he is, if for no other reason than the threat of him setting a hard screen and then rolling to the hoop.
It helps even more that he's such a strong finisher.
Per NBA.com's data, Lopez served as a roll man on 27.6 percent of his offensive possessions, which left him behind only six other players throughout the entire Association. And despite the heavy usage, he scored 1.17 points per possession, putting him in the 86.4 percentile.
But remember, those percentiles are based on everyone in the league, not just the players who use rolls with such frequency. Someone who runs five and scores on all of them throughout an entire season is going to rank ahead of Lopez, and that's not exactly indicative of his true value.
Thirty-seven players suited up in at least 50 games and had rolls account for no less than 20 percent of their possessions. Sorted by points per possession, these were the best of the bunch:
| Tyson Chandler | 21.5 | 1.41 | 97.7 |
| Meyers Leonard | 20 | 1.32 | 93.7 |
| Chris Andersen | 22 | 1.27 | 92.8 |
| Tyler Zeller | 24.1 | 1.2 | 89.6 |
| Robin Lopez | 27.6 | 1.17 | 86.4 |
| Anthony Davis | 24.5 | 1.16 | 84.6 |
| Amir Johnson | 24.1 | 1.16 | 83.7 |
Obviously, Lopez is part of an elite group, and it's worth noting that he had the highest frequency among that group.
Plus, this is no fluke.
"According to Synergy Sports, Lopez ranks in the 78th percentile as the roll man and was all the way up in the 97th percentile last year. As a result, teams respect this threat, and Lopez has his own gravitational field," Willy Raedy wrote for Blazers Edge in February, before Lopez just kept climbing the in-season leaderboard.
Still, these skills aren't particularly glamorous. It's hard for casual observers to notice how the spacing changes just by virtue of Lopez's positioning on the court and the subtle body shifts he makes around the blocks and elbows. He's also not going to put up many 20-point outings, which won't exactly help his reputation.
As Rosenthal writes, "Lopez isn't a thrilling player to watch, and I can understand why his addition feels like settling, but I'm excited to have him around, and I think every single Knick will be happy to join him."
Even if he struggles a bit with the nuances of the triangle offense, Lopez helps the Knicks get better. More likely than not, that improvement will be rather substantial, given the complete dearth of quality defensive bigs who currently call Madison Square Garden home.
Though he's not the splashy signing the Knicks were going for when the offseason kicked off, he's going to make for a high-quality addition and will only cost $13.5 million per season.
"It's like a jigsaw puzzle," Jackson said about free agency, per Marc Berman of the New York Post.
The Knicks now have another player who fits. Lopez may not be a corner piece, but a puzzle isn't complete without all the parts in place.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
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