Predicting Win-Loss Records for Vegas' Top College Football Favorites in 2015
Vegas has spoken, giving us a short list of who the favorites are to win college football's national championship this season. Early lines provided by Odds Shark have 13 teams with odds of better than 30-to-1 to claim the title, though defending champion Ohio State is the overwhelming leader at 3.25-to-1.
These lines are sure to fluctuate between now and when the season begins in less than eight weeks, but for now we can consider these to be the top title contenders based on what the oddsmakers say.
Only one team can win the championship, though, and to do that it will need to navigate its regular-season schedule with as few losses as possible, if any at all. But will it?
Here's our predictions of each Vegas title favorite's win-loss total for 2015, based only on their 12 regular-season games.
Alabama
1 of 13
Vegas odds to win title: 7.5-to-1
Alabama faces one of its toughest schedules in recent memory, even with the presence of its usual weak nonconference opponents scattered across the slate. Its SEC foes are as tough as ever, and the order the Crimson Tide has to face them in 2015 makes for a treacherous route.
"No one can complain about Alabama’s schedule this season," wrote Bleacher Report's Christopher Walsh, citing the presence of 10 teams that were bowl eligible in 2014.
The easiest stretch is at the beginning, and that's relative, since it begins with a neutral-site clash against Wisconsin before the Tide come to Tuscaloosa for three straight against Middle Tennessee, Ole Miss and Louisiana-Monroe. Ole Miss is the main challenge in there, but the Rebels haven't won on the road in this series since 1988.
Then comes the first of two gauntlets, starting with a crossover trip to Georgia. Arkansas at home follows, then come back-to-back games against opponents (at Texas A&M, vs. Tennessee) who will be coming off byes. It stands to reason a loss will occur during this stretch, most likely at Georgia.
Alabama doesn't get its lone bye until the ninth week, right before the annual grudge match with LSU, this time at home. A week later it's at Mississippi State, which might be down this year but will still be tough amid the clanging cowbells in Starkville.
An FCS-fueled breather comes just before visiting Auburn in the Iron Bowl, and we don't need to go into much detail about what those games are like. In the end, the Tide come out with their "worst" regular-season record since 2010; it'll still be better than most teams in the country, but probably not championship-worthy.
Projected regular-season record: 10-2
Auburn
2 of 13
Vegas odds to win title: 9.5-to-1
Auburn came out of nowhere to make the BCS title game in 2013, and that led to very lofty expectations for last season that couldn't be met. Those expectations still remain, and thanks to a more favorable schedule the Tigers should remain in contention throughout the year.
There are still eight bowl teams from a year ago to deal with, starting with the opener against Louisville in Atlanta, but compared to 2014 when Auburn had most of its toughest games on the road this time around the script has been flipped and the majority of the challenges will be in Jordan-Hare Stadium. That includes the teams that were on the wrong end of certain prayers and returned kicks two years ago.
The only thing standing in the way of Auburn heading into its bye with a 5-0 record is its SEC opener Sept. 19 at LSU. It last won in Baton Rouge in 1999, and the breakout team from 2013 suffered its only regular-season loss at Tiger Stadium.
Auburn has a tricky two-game road trip in October right after its bye, beginning with a Thursday game at Kentucky and then nine days later at Arkansas. Both teams will be fresh off byes themselves, and that's particularly a bad recipe for facing the Razorbacks.
There's a dangerous trip to Texas A&M in early November right before hosting Georgia in the renewal of Deep South's Oldest Rivalry, then after quickly dispatching of Idaho the Tigers finish out with Alabama coming in for the latest Iron Bowl clash.
Auburn will slip up somewhere along the way, either at Arkansas, LSU or Texas A&M, but will hold serve at home and claim the SEC's West Division.
Projected regular-season record: 11-1
Baylor
3 of 13
Vegas odds to win title: 21-to-1
Baylor coach Art Briles doesn't see a need for a Big 12 title game, not when he feels a team that goes unbeaten in conference play is more than deserving of a spot in the playoffs despite not having a 13th game to pad the resume. That's the only way the Bears figure to make the semifinals this year, since they again have a nonconference schedule that does them no favors.
The trio of SMU, FCS school Lamar and Rice to open things up doesn't exactly scream "battle-tested," nor does an October that features matchups against the four worst Big 12 teams from last season. Only one of those is on the road, but that's at a Kansas team that is shaping up to be far worse than the 3-9 squad from a year ago.
It's all about November for the Bears, particularly the end of that month, when they visit TCU the day after Thanksgiving in the unofficial Big 12 title game. Baylor needs to win that game to have a shot at the playoffs, but it probably also needs to be unbeaten heading into that one, and that's no gimme.
Prior to TCU, Baylor must visit Kansas State, host Oklahoma and visit Oklahoma State. It last won at OK State in the 1930s and two years ago went to Stillwater with a perfect record only to get run off the field by the Cowboys.
Baylor is good enough to handle all of the challenges leading up to TCU and can beat the Horned Frogs, but it won't. And that lone loss is all it will take to keep the Bears out of the playoffs yet again.
Projected regular-season record: 11-1
Clemson
4 of 13
Vegas odds to win title: 23.5-to-1
Clemson has won 10 or more games for four straight seasons, but because it's been stuck in the same division of the ACC as powerhouse Florida State the Tigers have been relegated to second-tier status among the nation's top teams. This could be the year they overcome the Seminoles and ascend to the top of the conference, as well as finally get into the national title picture.
That's assuming a few key things, though, such as whether explosive quarterback Deshaun Watson can return to his old form after having knee surgery in December and if he can avoid getting hurt again. There's also the issue of Clemson's schedule, though that mostly works in its favor in 2015.
Arguably its three toughest opponents all visit Death Valley this year, as Clemson hosts Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Florida State. The first two are in back-to-back weeks in October, following an extended bye thanks to facing Louisville on the road on Sept. 17 and then having 16 days off. Assuming it wins at Louisville, there's plenty of time to rest up for those consecutive challenges.
Florida State comes to Clemson in early November, but that's right after Clemson hits the road for a tricky two-game stretch at Miami (Florida) and North Carolina State. Those are both losable games, and the odds lean toward the Tigers dropping at least one of those.
Clemson also has to visit rival South Carolina to end the season, and it hasn't won in Columbia since 2007.
The Tigers will win the ACC's Atlantic Division, dropping only one game, but they'll also lose their finale at South Carolina to knock them out of playoff contention.
Projected regular-season record: 10-2
Florida State
5 of 13
Vegas odds to win title: 15-to-1
Despite losing 11 starters to the NFL draft, including No. 1 overall pick and Heisman winner Jameis Winston at quarterback, Vegas still thinks highly of Florida State and what Jimbo Fisher has going in Tallahassee. Maybe the oddsmakers are being a little too ambitious, because the combination of youth (albeit talented youth) and a few tough spots on the schedule make it unlikely the Seminoles can continue on their recent run of national title pursuits.
FSU was badmouthed by many experts last season even as it went unbeaten, both because it didn't have a particularly tough schedule and it didn't win very convincingly along the way. Imagine what the reactions will be this year, as the Seminoles have a tougher go of it and stand to lose a few during the regular season.
The first pitfall comes Oct. 24, when FSU visits Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were among the many teams that pushed the Seminoles to the limit last year, and while both teams lost a lot from those squads Tech still has quarterback Justin Thomas. He ran for 104 yards against FSU on just 11 carries.
Two weeks later the 'Noles go to Clemson, and while they've won there in the past this looks to be the year the Tigers get their revenge. A finale at Florida won't be easy, either, especially with new blood on the other side of the rivalry in the form of coach Jim McElwain.
The addition of Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson to be its potential starting quarterback is helpful, but that won't be enough to keep FSU in the playoff hunt or even atop the ACC mountain.
Projected regular-season record: 10-2
Georgia
6 of 13
Vegas odds to win title: 25-to-1
Georgia is getting Vegas' nod once again as the de facto SEC runner-up, the East Division winner that would ultimately fall to the West champion in the conference title game. The Bulldogs have been in this position the previous two years but have ended up dropping too many games to hold off upstart Missouri.
To prevent coming up short for a third straight year, Georgia must maintain focus throughout what sets up as a difficult-yet-still-very-manageable 12-game schedule.
The Bulldogs have drawn both Alabama schools for their crossover games in 2015, with Alabama coming to Athens on Oct. 3. Both teams should be unbeaten—unless Georgia were to slip up at home against South Carolina—heading into this huge battle, and the winner should be considered the SEC's front-runner for a playoff spot. Georgia can win this game, and it will, but then immediately after comes one of those traps that it has fallen into lately.
A visit to Tennessee follows the Alabama game, and that's not the best spot to face a rising program that's come close to knocking off the Bulldogs in recent years. Just as ill-timed is the next game, at home against Missouri, especially if Georgia gets past the Volunteers on the road.
Georgia has a bye before playing Florida in Jacksonville, which should help prevent not being prepared for that one (though that didn't seem to matter last season), then after knocking off Kentucky at home the road gets treacherous. The Bulldogs' final three regular-season opponents went a combined 28-11 last year, and they have to play two of those (Auburn and Georgia Tech) on the road.
In between is a sneaky-good Georgia Southern team, the first of two straight option teams Georgia ends with.
Look for Georgia to get into the SEC title game as East champs but do so with at least one league loss and probably two overall setbacks.
Projected regular-season record: 10-2
LSU
7 of 13
Vegas odds to win title: 26.5-to-1
The oddsmakers still like LSU despite it not having spent much time as a title contender the last three years, and with a team that looks very similar to the 2014 version that went 8-5 it's hard to think what it is Vegas sees that we don't.
LSU has a schedule that isn't conducive to making a run at the championship unless it manages to be good enough to handle an SEC road slate against teams that won 38 games last season. The Tigers' "easiest" road game is out of conference play, as they make an odd September trip to Syracuse right after a tough two-game SEC stretch at Mississippi State and home against Auburn.
The Tigers' least-imposing conference road game is at South Carolina, and its November is as tough as it comes in the SEC: at Alabama, vs. Arkansas, at Ole Miss, vs. Texas A&M.
LSU doesn't even have the mystique of Tiger Stadium on a Saturday night to fall back on as much anymore, as last year it lost twice at home. The Tigers will still be a tough out, wherever the game is, but this isn't a championship-level team.
Projected regular-season record: 8-4
Michigan State
8 of 13
Vegas odds to win title: 25-to-1
Michigan State is the only Big Ten team to beat Urban Meyer in his three seasons at Ohio State, which by itself is enough to keep the Spartans in the discussion for a national title in 2015. It's not enough, so thankfully they also have a very valuable nonconference game and mostly winnable schedule to help their cause.
As it was in 2014, MSU's game against Oregon will be one of the biggest of the early weeks of this season. This one's in East Lansing, and the home team figures to be able to exact revenge on the Marcus Mariota-less Ducks. A solid win there will propel the Spartans through the first half of their schedule, which doesn't present another significant challenge until they visit Michigan in mid-October.
The arrival of Jim Harbaugh at Michigan, and the fact the game is on the road, is what makes this a potential hurdle for MSU. The talent advantage is still in the Spartans' favor for now, so this might be the last time they can expect to waltz into Michigan Stadium and pull out a victory for a while.
After that, the only other game to worry about for MSU is the one against defending national champion Ohio State on Nov. 21. The Spartans beat the Buckeyes in the 2013 Big Ten title game but were outrun at home by them last year, and their one win in Columbus this century came during OSU's scandal-filled 2011 season.
The Big Ten isn't strong enough to get two teams into the playoffs, especially when they'd likely be from the same division. That means the single loss at Ohio State will be all it takes to keep MSU out of the running.
Projected regular-season record: 11-1
Notre Dame
9 of 13
Vegas odds to win title: 21.5-to-1
As an independent, Notre Dame usually has complete control of its schedule each year and therefore has no one to blame but itself for the strength or weakness of that slate. The agreement with the ACC to play a handful of schools from that league each year has changed this dynamic, as the Fighting Irish are now at the mercy of which teams it draws from the ACC.
Last year the Irish lucked out with a trip to Florida State, a game that helped lift an otherwise unimpressive schedule. This season they landed Clemson and Georgia Tech, but also Virginia and Wake Forest, an example of how hit or miss this affiliation will be over the years.
Notre Dame's schedule from an overall standpoint is one that could propel it into the playoffs if it doesn't lose more than one game, though any momentum it builds will have to come during the first half since the second half is pretty soft.
The Irish open at home against Texas before visiting Virginia, then get Georgia Tech to come to South Bend. Two weeks later they're at Clemson, followed by visits from Navy and USC. After a bye it gets quite easy, with matchups at Temple and Pittsburgh, then home for Wake Forest before facing Boston College at Fenway Park.
The finale at Stanford is always a tough one, but unless the Irish head into that one at 10-1 it won't have much of an impact on their playoff chances.
Projected regular-season record: 10-2
Ohio State
10 of 13
Vegas odds to win title: 3.125-to-1
There's no question who Vegas believes is the overwhelming front-runner to win the national title, the same team that won it last year and which brings a 13-game win streak into this season. Ohio State returns almost the exact same team as the one that steamrolled through the 2014-15 postseason, and even with the continuing uncertainty as to who will be the Buckeyes' starting quarterback there's little concern that a repeat would be difficult.
It's no guarantee, though, since OSU still has a few games that will provide a challenge. That includes the opener on Labor Day at Virginia Tech, a game that figures to be far more difficult than some have projected. ESPN cited the Golden Nugget's sportsbook in Las Vegas as setting the opening line for that contest at minus-16 for the Buckeyes, and while that's still a very possible margin of victory, the atmosphere of opening a title defense on the road at night might make for the toughest double-digit win in recent memory.
After that, though, OSU can put it on cruise control for more than two months. Though it will face seven straight teams from Sept. 19-Nov. 7 that went bowling last year, five of those are at home and two of them are Mid-American Conference teams. The toughest game in that stretch is at Rutgers, a team OSU beat by 39 at home in 2014.
The final two weeks are where OSU is going to fall, it it does. First is the visit from Michigan State, its closest competitor in the Big Ten, and then a week later is the rivalry game at Michigan. That one is always a challenge, no matter the locale or quality of teams, and the addition of Jim Harbaugh to the mix adds further intrigue and increases the possibility of a loss.
But not by enough to mean it will happen. OSU runs the table and, barring a loss in the Big Ten title game, should be an overwhelming No. 1 seed in the semifinals.
Projected regular-season record: 12-0
Oregon
11 of 13
Vegas odds to win title: 21-to-1
Though Oregon has much of the same team that made the title game last year returning, as well as the same potent offensive scheme to work with, it is missing one key ingredient from 2014: quarterback Marcus Mariota. His absence is a big reason the Ducks' odds are much lower this season, and with no clear-cut replacement for him at this point it's hard to see them repeating history.
Oregon's playoff hopes will be on the line early when they visit Michigan State on Sept. 12. That victory over MSU in 2014 helped them overcome a surprise loss to Arizona a few weeks afterward, but losing that game this year will put it behind the eight ball from the outset.
The Ducks have plenty of marquee games to get props for winning, but most are at the end of the season. That's when they visit Arizona State just before Halloween, then two weeks later go to Stanford before coming home to host USC. A perfect run through that trio will keep Oregon in the playoff hunt, but it won't be able to accomplish that feat.
Oregon won't be part of the playoff picture after making to the championship game a year ago, and it might not even win the Pac-12's North Division.
Projected regular-season record: 9-3
TCU
12 of 13
Vegas odds to win title: 9.75-to-1
Had there been the ability to reseed the playoffs following the semifinal games last season, TCU might have been given Florida State's spot and a shot to compete for the title. That's a small consolation for what was a good Horned Frogs team that was left out of the playoff party and is motivated to avoid having that happen again.
"No matter what we've called it during my 33 years of college football coaching, whether we had the BCS or the coaches' poll, whatever they had, somebody has felt like they got screwed," TCU coach Gary Patterson told reporters in April (h/t Kevin McGuire of NBC Sports). "That will go on."
TCU's one loss kept it out last year, and a single setback could do the trick again this year unless it comes to someone other than Baylor. It's widely believed that the winner of the Nov. 27 game between TCU and Baylor (hosted by the Frogs) will be the Big 12 champion, and while Baylor probably needs to run the table to get a playoff bid TCU isn't in as dire straits.
Thanks to the Thursday night season opener at Minnesota, the Frogs have some value to their nonconference schedule. SMU and FCS school Stephen F. Austin don't add anything to it, but one good non-league opponent might be all that's needed to help offset a potential loss somewhere along the way to meeting Baylor at the end of the year.
There aren't many places where that could happen, though, even with three of the first four Big 12 games on the road. Those are at Texas Tech, Kansas State and Iowa State, along with a visit from Texas in there, a stretch that doesn't appear too imposing.
The biggest non-Baylor challenges come just before that showdown, games at Oklahoma State and Oklahoma in November. The Oklahoma game is six days before the Baylor match, making the Sooners improbably a candidate to "surprise" someone else.
But TCU appears too good, and most importantly too motivated, to slip up anywhere and therefore will lock up a playoff bid with a perfect regular season.
Projected regular-season record: 12-0
USC
13 of 13
Vegas odds to win title: 17-to-1
USC has all the talent in the world, no longer restricted by NCAA sanctions that limited scholarships and turned off potential prospects. The Trojans have stockpiled strong players at every position and appear poised to return to the top of the college football world.
That's assuming they don't stub their toe too much, as was the case with an equally talent-laden team in 2014.
Last year USC pulled off a strong win at Stanford only to get upset by Boston College the following week. It also blew a big lead at home to Arizona State and was run over by rival UCLA. There are similar places for USC to trip up this season, as well, such as the early one-two punch of hosting Stanford and then visiting ASU.
The Trojans also have the midseason trip to Notre Dame that always proves to be challenging and home games against Utah and Arizona will still be difficult. The season is likely to come down to the final two weeks, though, when they visit Oregon and then come home to play UCLA.
It's hard to predict when a team will mess up, or if it will at all. This could be the Trojans' year, and the schedule is strong enough that they can withstand one loss (as long as it's not to a bad team) and still make the playoffs as the Pac-12 representative.
Projected regular-season record: 11-1
Vegas odds courtesy of OddsShark.com and are based on averaging the odds from multiple sports books.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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