Preseason Prognostications—Part 1: The AFC

Well, it’s that time again. Aged NFL veterans are out of work, college free agents have had their big-league dreams smashed, and fans everywhere are obsessing over the results of their fantasy drafts. The NFL regular season must be here.

That means it’s time for that annual rite of autumn, the preseason predictions. Every sportswriter is going to tell you how it will all play out this season. You know what they won’t do? Admit they were wrong in four months time. They bury those columns—which are about as accurate as a three-day weather report in Kansas—deep so you can’t see they picked Baltimore to finish third in their division, not second in their conference, or that they said the Falcons wouldn’t make the playoffs with a rookie quarterback.

Not here, baby. Like every other idiot who watches the NFL, I’ve got an opinion, and like every sportswriter, I’m going to share it with you. But come January, I’ll compare what I said was going to happen to what really did. That way, I can brag about how right I was, or you can make fun of my puny football mind.

Here’s the rules. First, I only pick playoffs teams. I’m not going to tell you who will win the Super Bowl. That’s silly. I’ll tell you who will be in the tournament, and we can sort it out from there. Second, I pick eight teams per conference—six I think will make it and two dark horses. It’s no fun if you can’t conjecture a little. Third, if a dark horse makes the playoffs, it counts as though I was right. So essentially, I get eight chances to get six teams right. I know that’s cheating, but it’s my game, and I make the rules.

I’ll write this in three parts. Today, you get the AFC playoffs picture. Tomorrow, the NFC. On Friday, I’ll preview the 16 teams I’m sure are out. So write this down, boys and girls, because it will come back to haunt one of us in January.

Playoff Teams (in no particular order):
New England Patriots
Indianapolis Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers
San Diego Chargers
Miami Dolphins
Tennessee Titans 

Dark Horses:
Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals

New England Patriots: The fact that an 11-5 team missed the playoffs last season is a testament to how bad the NFL’s playoffs rules are. It’s also a testament to how good the Patriots are. They won 11 games without the services of the best quarterback in the game. Tom Brady’s back and appears to have recovered from season-ending knee surgery. Until they prove otherwise, the Patriots get an automatic bid on my playoff card.

Indianapolis Colts: I’m less sure about this one. Tony Dungy isn’t there anymore. Will things be the same? Probably, because Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Joseph Addai, and Bob Sanders are still there. Like the Patriots, you have to give these guys an automatic nod until they prove otherwise.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The defending champions return 19 of 22 starters. They had the No. 1  defense in the league last year. They have vowed not to have a Super Bowl hangover. If the offensive line can protect Ben Roethlisberger, they should stay sober.

San Diego Chargers: I’m not sure how good the Chargers are. I am sure they play in the same division as the Chiefs, Broncos, and Raiders. Put San Diego on the board.

Miami Dolphins: Things get trickier in the wildcard race. Miami is returning the same squad that surprised everyone last year. Chad Pennington appears to have a little more gas in the tank, and they have great personnel to run the Wildcat offense. It’s a tough division the Dolphins play in, though, and hard to know if these guys can really hang with the rest of the conference for a whole season on a consistent basis. But I’ll go ahead and bet they can.

Tennessee Titans: Speaking of tough divisions, does anyone want to play in the AFC South? Because I sure don’t. Tennessee has some questions to answer. Can Kerry Collins really still play at a high level? Is Vince Young ready to be an NFL starter? How badly do they miss Albert Haynesworth? Ordinarily, these sorts of questions might cause me to downgrade them to a Dark Horse, but I’ll bet on Jeff Fisher to pull it off.

Jacksonville Jaguars: I’m not sure I can support this pick with any facts. It’s really just a feeling. David Garrard had an off-year last season. Maurice Jones-Drew is a dominant back. They improved the offensive line in the offseason. The Jaguars are a team you never want to play. They might not make the playoffs, but they’ll make you work to get there. If a few things bounce the right way, they’re in.

Cincinnati Bengals: Alright, I admit this is a homer call, but hear me out. Carson Palmer is healthy again. Chad Ochocinco has his brain back. Rookie defenders Rey Maualuga and Michael Johnson are going to improve a defensive unit that finished 12th in the NFL last season. If the reconstituted offensive line keeps Palmer clean and can open some holes for Cedric Benson, the Bengals are going to be the surprise of the league in 2009.

Tomorrow: the NFC.