World Cup Qualifying: Denmark Retain Narrow Lead In Group One

Denmark have managed to retain their lead in Group One of the first round of European Qualifiers for the 2010 World Cup, despite only managing two draws from their two latest qualifying games.

Firstly Denmark could only manage a draw in their home game clash against Portugal on September 5th, and then, surprisingly, did not appear to show any signs of improvement against a much less-fancied Albanian team today (September 9), as they drew once more.

A couple of months back when I wrote up my predictions for these matches, Denmark were in a much better position, being three points clear of Hungary and they appeared to have a relatively easy path by comparison.

At that time I predicted that Denmark would beat Albania, but would only really need to if any other team in the group also managed to get a win or two.

Hungary needed to, at least, get draws in order to stay in contention but they have now lost twice in succession. In their match against Sweden on Saturday, defeat came courtesy of a show-stopping last minute goal from Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

Then today they were edged out by Portugal, whose victory has seen them rise to third place in the Group Table.

Hungary are just behind, level on points but with a slightly unfavourable goal ratio. It must be very frustrating for the Hungarian team to be in fourth place despite having achieved more wins than Portugal in the qualifying stage.

These losses have allowed Sweden to move to within two points of the leader, and should they prevail against Denmark next month then they will guarantee their place at the World Cup, while Denmark would then need to fight their way through the next stage in order to stay in contention.

It was absolutely crucial for Denmark to win today's game against Albania and they failed to do that. Now they have two matches ahead against strong opponents, firstly against Sweden on October 10th, and then against Hungary on October 14th. The one positive factor for Denmark is that both matches will be home games for them.

The crucial factor for Denmark's hopes may come down to whether the Hungarian team are demoralized after their "fall from grace" or whether they are determined to play with spirit and salvage some pride, though they have little realistic hope of actually making it through to qualification now.

But the real problem for Denmark is that Sweden's last match will be a home game against Albania and they have always been expected to win that one.

If Denmark can beat Sweden then they will be completely safe. If the result is a draw then Denmark are in serious danger, while a loss would be an unmitigated disaster. In that case the only chance that Denmark have to stay in front, is in the unlikely scenario of Sweden losing the home game to Albania.

This is how it works mathematically:

If Denmark beats Sweden then their lead increases 21-15 and they are safe, as in that case Sweden can only get a maximum of six points (taking their total to 18), and neither Portugal nor Hungary can score any more than 19 points, requiring one or the other team to win both of their remaining matches.

If the result between Denmark and Sweden is a draw, then for the moment the status quo is maintained, as Denmark will still be three points ahead (19-16), but it could then possibly become essential to defeat Hungary.

The only thing that can change that is if Portugal and Hungary draw against each other, which would mean that neither of those teams would have any chance of ousting Denmark from the top spot.

And finally a loss to Sweden would mean that Sweden draw level with Denmark to 18-18 with one apparently easy match still ahead of them, while Denmark would face Hungary in their final qualifying match.

Currently it is very close, but the Swedes are looking in a more promising position at the moment. If Denmark had defeated Albania then everything would be so different.

Now the results are going to really matter, and none more so than the outcome of Denmark v Sweden on October 10th. You won't want to miss that one if you're hoping to see either of these teams go through.