12 FBS Teams on Upset Alert vs. FCS Opponents in 2015
The 2014 season couldn't possibly match the FCS-on-FBS violence from the year before, when eight lower-division teams rose up and upset the big boys in the first weekend of the season.
It took the FCS the entire 2014 season to match the same number of victories over FBS opponents it had in that wild first week of 2013. Highlights from 2014 included eventual four-time defending champion North Dakota State's throttling of Iowa State, Abilene Christian's shocker over a free-falling Troy program and Northwestern State's upset over bowl-winning Louisiana Tech.
This season, the FBS wised up as a whole and didn't schedule North Dakota State, but there are still a number of schools that could fall victim to the biggest species of upset bug this season.
Here are a dozen FBS programs on major upset alert against FCS opponents this season. This list was determined by the strength of both sides—with special help from Athlon Sports' FCS Preseason Top 25—and their recent histories in FBS vs. FCS contests.
Some of the schools on this list are the usual suspects of struggling programs who will scrape for any win this season, but there are a few Power Five squads that could suffer huge blows at the hands of the smaller-division powers.
Army
1 of 11
Sept. 4 vs. Fordham
Oct. 17 vs. Bucknell
This upset alert list kicks off with Army, which lost at Yale in overtime last season. The Black Knights only return 10 starters from last season's 4-8 squad, and they have to avoid upsets against two FCS schools in 2015.
Fordham won the Patriot League last season with a 11-3 record and lost to Army by only 11 points last year. The Rams have to replace a good-sized amount of talent from that championship team, but they still have a decent chance at revenge in the season opener against the Black Knights, who had to score 28 unanswered points to win last year's matchup.
A few weeks later, Army will have to face another three-loss team from the Patriot League in Bucknell, which is coming off one of its best seasons in decades. If it's a close game, keep your eyes on the Bison, who were 3-1 in one-possession contests last season and won twice in overtime.
Georgia State
2 of 11
Oct. 3 vs. Liberty
It's almost too easy to put Georgia State on this list. The Panthers, who only started playing football in 2010, went 1-7 in a FCS conference in 2012, failed to record a win in 2013 and beat an Abilene Christian team that is in transition to the FCS by one point for their only victory of 2014.
But such is life right now for Georgia State, which plays Liberty for homecoming this season. Turner Gill—remember him?—and the Flames are coming off their first FCS playoff appearance and return a lot of weapons on offense that will give the Panthers plenty of issues to open October.
In perhaps the cruelest use of the transitive property, Liberty has somewhat of an advantage because it upset Appalachian State 55-48 last season. The next week, Appalachian State obliterated Georgia State by a score of 44-0. Hang in there, Panthers.
Idaho
3 of 11
Sept. 19 vs. Wofford
Idaho went 1-10 last season and would've had 11 losses if it wasn't for lightning in its season opener against Florida. Paul Petrino's team needs to show improvement this season, and a loss against Wofford could be fatal to his job security.
The Terriers aren't the most accomplished FCS team on this list, but they have a triple-option attack that ranked third in the division last season for yards per game. Despite its 6-5 record last year, Wofford held its own against bigger opponents and even led future Orange Bowl winner Georgia Tech at halftime.
Wofford's ground game spells trouble for Idaho, which ranked 121st nationally in rushing yards allowed per carry and 122nd in yards per game. The Vandals will be coming off a road game against powerful USC and won't be in the best of shape to handle a hammering option offense.
Iowa and Iowa State
4 of 11
Sept. 5 vs. Illinois State (Iowa), vs. Northern Iowa (Iowa State)
As usual, Iowa and Iowa State will renew their fierce in-state rivalry early in the season. But before these two square off in Week 2, they both have to avoid looking ahead to the big game and handle FCS opponents who will most likely open the season in the division's Top 10.
The Hawkeyes will face Illinois State, which lost by two points to four-time defending champion North Dakota State in last year's FCS title game. While Illinois State hasn't come close to beating a Big 10 team in its history, FCS leading rusher Marshaun Coprich will be a handful against an Iowa team that only beat Northern Iowa by eight points in its 2014 opener.
Speaking of Northern Iowa, the Panthers open their season against Iowa State, which is coming off a ghastly 2-10 season. The Cyclones have lost back-to-back season openers against FCS teams—the previously mentioned decisive defeat at the hands of North Dakota State and a 28-20 loss to this Northern Iowa program in 2013—so they are definitely on full upset alert to start 2015.
Kansas
5 of 11
Sept. 5 vs. South Dakota State
Kansas hits the reset button again this season with new head coach David Beaty, who previously served as a wide receivers coach for the Jayhawks and Texas A&M. With a paltry seven starters returning this season, Kansas could be in for another abysmal year as Beaty begins to rebuild a team that won by six points in 2014 to Southeast Missouri State.
South Dakota State has some rebuilding of its own to do as running back Zach Zenner, who ran for more than 2,000 yards in three straight seasons, is gone. Still, the Jackrabbits are No. 19 in Athlon's preseason FCS poll and made it to the second round of the playoffs last season.
A new head coach and a massive amount of new starters should result in some ugly football in 2015 for Kansas, especially toward the beginning of the season. The Beaty era in Lawrence could easily open with a loss to a team from the junior circuit.
Pittsburgh
6 of 11
Sept. 5 vs. Youngstown State
Pittsburgh fans should have reason for optimism this season—or as much optimism as one would expect from a fanbase that has been through painful disappointment time and again. And the Panthers, who are under first-year head coach Pat Narduzzi this season, know their Week 1 opponents can put a dent in those hopes in the opening kickoff.
Bo Pelini's Youngstown State visits Heinz Field to start the season, and the former Nebraska head coach inherits a lot of talented Penguins for 2015. Youngstown State defeated Pittsburgh in its last meeting, a stunning 31-17 upset in 2012.
This matchup of first-year head coaches might be the best-looking game on this entire list. Pittsburgh is well aware it can't look past Youngstown State, and the Penguins would love nothing more than to repeat the program's biggest upset win in Pelini's first game in charge.
Purdue
7 of 11
Sept. 12 vs. Indiana State
Purdue has won only four games in two seasons under head coach Darrell Hazell, but there's a chance the Boilermakers could sneak into a bowl game this season. That won't happen, though, if they lose to an Indiana State team that has recent experience in knocking off FBS opponents.
Indiana State returns 10 starters from one of the FCS's best defenses in 2014 and defeated Ball State 27-20 last season. The Sycamores came close to upsetting Purdue in 2013 as the Boilermakers needed a last-minute interception inside their own territory to preserve a 20-14 win.
Purdue will enter this game with a shorter amount of rest than usual as it plays Marshall on the Sunday before this home opener. The Sycamores will be focused on finishing the job they started two seasons ago, and the Boilermakers should be in for another tough in-state matchup.
SMU
8 of 11
Sept. 26 vs. James Madison
SMU's 2014 season was a disaster. It didn't come close to winning a game until November's 14-13 loss against South Florida. The Mustangs ended 2015 on somewhat of a high note by beating UConn—another team on this list—and hiring Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris for its head coaching vacancy early in the offseason.
James Madison posted a 9-4 record last season, coming third in a tough Colonial Athletic Association. The Dukes will be led at quarterback by the FCS's all-purpose offense leader from a year ago, former Georgia Tech transfer Vad Lee. Although James Madison was blown out by Maryland in 2014, its last game against a Group of Five opponent was a two-point loss to Akron in 2013.
SMU should be much improved in its first season under Morris, but rebuilding the once-proud program will take some time. The Mustangs will enter this game after a tough road matchup against national title contender TCU, so a letdown is quite possible against the Dukes.
Texas Tech
9 of 11
Sept. 5 vs. Sam Houston State
Texas Tech is coming off a dreadful year in which it went 4-8 and had the fourth-worst defense in all of college football. The Red Raiders are returning most of their starters on both sides of the ball, but as SB Nation's Bill Connelly wrote earlier this week, head coach Kliff Kingsbury is hitting the reset button ahead of this season.
Sam Houston State, on the other hand, rebounded from a 3-4 start to the 2014 season and ran all the way to the FCS semifinals. The Bearkats return 19 starters for 2015, including quarterback Jared Johnson, who came extremely close to 3,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards last season under first-year head coach K.C. Keeler.
While history is on the Red Raiders' side for this matchup—they beat the Bearkats 80-21 in their only previous meeting—Texas Tech beat what turned out to be a 6-6 Central Arkansas team by seven points in last season's opener. A sloppy start against a high-powered FCS offense could doom Kingsbury's squad in this year's opener.
UConn
10 of 11
Sept. 3 vs. Villanova
UConn has been on a slow decline since its BCS bowl berth in 2010 as an 8-5 team, and Bob Diaco's first season in Storrs ended with two victories. While the Huskies should show signs of improvement in Diaco's second season, they start with one of the toughest draws of any FBS/FCS matchup.
Villanova returns the Walter Payton Award winner—the FCS's version of the Heisman—in senior quarterback John Robertson, who scored 46 touchdowns a year ago. The Wildcats' three losses last season came by a combined five points, including a heartbreaking double overtime loss to Syracuse in Week 1.
The Huskies are actually 4-7 all time against Villanova as they played in what was formerly known as Division I-AA football until 1999. UConn lost a home opener to a tough FCS team in Towson in 2013, and the experience of Villanova on the first Thursday night of the season will be quite troublesome for a program looking for any sort of positive result at the moment.
UNLV
11 of 11
Sept. 26 vs. Idaho State
This could be an extremely long year for UNLV, which went 2-11 last season. The Rebels' new head coach, Tony Sanchez, will be in his first year on a college staff—he came from Vegas high school powerhouse Bishop Gorman—and he inherits only 10 returning starters from a year ago.
Idaho State, on the other hand, is coming off one of its best seasons in recent program history. The Bengals went 8-2 with close losses to ranked opponents Eastern Washington and Montana State after opening the 2014 season with road defeats at Utah and Utah State.
UNLV has split its last four games against FCS opponents, and one of those wins was last season's 13-12 escape against a 3-8 Northern Colorado team. Idaho State will already have a taste of Mountain West competition heading into this game as it faces powerful Boise State the week before its trip to Las Vegas.
Justin Ferguson is an on-call college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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