Is Damian Lillard Ready to Be Portland Trail Blazers' Franchise Centerpiece?
UPDATE on July 2 at 6 pm ET by Adam Fromal
Damian Lillard is locked into Rip City throughout the foreseeable future.
According to Yahoo Sports' Marc J. Spears, the talented point guard has officially agreed to a maximum extension with the Portland Trail Blazers:
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Portland has faced mixed results throughout the early portion of the offseason, and LaMarcus Aldridge's future with the franchise is entirely up in the air. But Lillard's next five years will now certainly be spent with the Blazers, giving them a definitive centerpiece to build around.
All that can change is the number he's owed, and any shift will be positive for him. After all, he can make an All-NBA squad or win MVP next season, either of which would allow him to qualify for the Derrick Rose rule and eat up 30 percent of the salary cap, rather than the 25 percent that the $120 million currently accounts for.
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ORIGINAL TEXT
Damian Lillard has the All-Star accolades and major-money endorsement deals of an NBA franchise player.
If his numbers aren't at that level, they're awfully close. And the Powerball-sized salary he'll soon collect certainly fits the bill, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein:
But holding true centerpiece status requires more than stature and statistics. For the Portland Trail Blazers to feel comfortable about following Lillard's lead, the 24-year-old must improve his efficiency, consistency and defensive commitment. As Jason Quick of the Oregonian noted, Lillard's new deal would easily be the richest in franchise history, moving ahead of the $84 million pact Zach Randolph signed in 2004.
Clearly, Portland believes Lillard is up for the challenge. Even Blazers billionaire owner Paul Allen can't afford to make a $120 million investment without confidence of reaping a substantial return.
But Portland may have felt extra motivation to make this move based on what has happened (or could soon happen) around Lillard. There's a possibility he'll be the only starter from last season's 51-win team who stays in Rip City.
The Trail Blazers already shipped versatile forward Nicolas Batum out to the Charlotte Hornets in a three-player trade that delivered sophomore Noah Vonleh and veteran Gerald Henderson to the Blazers. LaMarcus Aldridge, Robin Lopez and Wesley Matthews are all unrestricted free agents with mobs of suitors.
Aldridge, the NBA's only player to average at least 21 points and eight rebounds in each of the past five seasons, has long served as Portland's focal point. But the 29-year-old could soon vacate that post. The Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs reportedly share the lead in the Aldridge race, sources told ESPN.com's Marc Stein.
Portland hasn't been officially ruled out for Aldridge. But Blazers assistant coach Kim Hughes said, "I'm sure he won't come back," in an interview with WTHI's Rick Semmler (via Mike Tokito of the Oregonian).
The Blazers could look dramatically different when they open training camp this fall. Retaining Lillard gives them something to build around.
"You're looking at a roster right now that features Noah Vonleh, C.J. McCollum, Mason Plumlee and not much else," wrote NBC Sports' Brett Pollakoff. "Signing Lillard for the maximum number of years allowed ensures at least one star is in place."
But the Blazers need Lillard to ascend from All-Star to full-fledged superstar. He'll carry the heaviest responsibility for the foreseeable future—even if Aldridge returns, Father Time will pass the torch to Lillard in short order—and he must provide a stable presence amid this potentially radical remodeling.
Even though Lillard has been the most recognizable player in Portland these past few seasons, the stat sheet has seen Aldridge as the most important. Their on/off splits in both 2014-15 and 2013-14 show Aldridge as having a greater impact at each end of the floor, per NBA.com.
Those numbers, of course, don't account for the overlap between them. Lillard has yet to miss a game during his NBA career, and Aldridge has only sat out 24 contests over the past two seasons combined. So a lot of that on-court damage has been done in tandem.
But the statistical site NBAWowy.com takes those splits a step further and shows how the Blazers have fared with one but not the other. And those figures also paint Aldridge as Portland's most important player.
"Aldridge is Portland's best all-around player," Grantland's Zach Lowe wrote in January. "... He has developed into the rare big man who can do a little bit of everything on defense. ... On the other end of the floor, opponents ditch their foundational game plans to account for Aldridge."
Even Lillard referred to Aldridge as the Blazers' "best player" earlier this year, per Quick.
Lillard has fueled his NBA rise by becoming a devastatingly effective offensive sidekick.
He can pull apart defenses as both a scorer and distributor. To wit, he's one of only six players to have averaged at least 19 points and five assists in each of the past three seasons. (The other five are all perennial All-Stars: LeBron James, Stephen Curry, James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Kyrie Irving.)
Lillard isn't the most accurate shooter from long range (career 36.8 percent), but his rapid-fire trigger demands constant attention from opposing defenses. The fact that he can comfortably light the lamp from way downtown makes him a constant threat as soon as he crosses half court.
He's an explosive scorer off the bounce—only Harden scored more points off drives than Lillard's 553—and a tactician in the pick-and-roll. Lillard can pile up points from both three-point land and at the rim (the two most efficient zones on the floor), and he always keeps his teammates involved.
"Lillard has become a quintessential NBA point guard on a winning basketball team, effortlessly blending scoring and playmaking," wrote Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry. "His offensive toolbox is equal parts sharing and scaring."
Still, he needs to polish his offensive production if he's going to serve as Portland's primary option. As the No. 2 man behind Aldridge, Lillard has only shot 42.9 percent from the field through his first three seasons.
But that side of the ball isn't where Lillard needs the most work. The two-time All-Star earned this past season's dubious distinction of being San Jose Mercury News columnist Tim Kawakami's No-Defense Player of the Year.
"Nobody dies easier on screens than Lillard, that's just a fact," Kawakami wrote. "Most of the time, it’s almost as if Lillard just stops playing when he's screened–he doesn't work through it, he doesn't switch hard, he doesn't rotate."
Defense remains one of the toughest areas to quantify, but the statistics that are available aren't kind to Lillard. His minus-0.37 defensive real plus-minus ranked 29th among point guards, per ESPN.com. In 2013-14, he was 50th at his position with a minus-1.95.
That ranking isn't close to where it needs to be, but at least it's improving. Lillard credited the strides he's made in that department to experience.
"This year, I'm finally familiar with the terms I hear," Lillard told Goldsberry in January. "When teams call out plays, I'm familiar with what's coming. The intellectual part really helps. When you first get into the league and you don't know these terms, you're lost."
Sharpening his mental approach could work wonders for Lillard's defense. As an athletic 6'3" point guard, he has the physical tools to thrive on that end.
But he has copious amounts of work to do to prepare himself for the centerpiece role that's been set aside for him.
That means no more wild swings in effectiveness (Lillard had 11 outings this past season with 13 points or fewer, then shot just 40.6 percent from the field during Portland's five playoff games). It demands better effort, intensity and execution on defense. It's about setting an example for his young teammates, putting them in position to succeed and never shying away from a spotlight that's as bright as ever.
Regardless of what happens with the rest of the roster, the Blazers are entering a new era. Their future is in the hands of their new $120 million man.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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