'09 AFC Preview & Predictions: How It's Gonna Be

Here’s How It’s Gonna Be

It's the best time of year again...football season is back! Here is my division by division breakdown of how the AFC is going to shake out.

AFC North

Pittsburgh 11-5

Baltimore 10-6

Cincinnati 6-10

Cleveland 4-12

How I See It:

The Steelers have a three-headed running attack, an efficient offense led by a QB who can gain yards with his arm or his feet, and a nasty defense…oh, and they won the Super Bowl last year and pretty much have everyone back.

I see the Ravens inching closer to the Steelers, but until they prove otherwise, I gotta go with the defending champs. I see Flacco building on last year and throwing the ball more, but watch for Ray Rice to have a breakout year if the diminutive back can endure the wear and tear and stay healthy.

The Bengals won four games with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB last year (you know your season is a disaster when an Irish guy plays the most important position on your football team...and I ain't talkin' about Euro football [I can say that cause anyone who has seen my pasty-white complexion knows I’m a Mick]), so with Carson Palmer coming back, and a new, feistier defense that now includes USC standout Rey Muauluga at linebacker, you can pencil them in for a few more W’s.

Offensive line issues and an average running game will leave this team below .500, though.

I see the Browns having a miserable year, because, frankly, they just aren’t very good. Their coach just named a starting QB (Quinn), they have an old Jamal Lewis at running back, a sub par receiving core that includes a No. 1 who has been known to get cases of the “dropsy’s,” and a defense “led” by cast-offs from a New York Jets defense that new coach Eric Mangini brought with him.

There is also the issue of whether a team that had gotten so used to players-coach Romeo Crennel will buy into disciplinarian Mangini’s quirky and odd methods. All this adds up to a recipe for a turd sandwich in Cleveland.

AFC South

Indianapolis 13-3

Tennessee 10-6

Houston 8-8

Jacksonville 7-9

How I See It:

After a very un-Indy-like start last year (1-2? How terrible!), the Colts won nine of 10 to finish the season and were running on all cylinders before being upset by San Diego in the playoffs. Tony Dungy is gone, but much of the personal remains the same, and the Hall of Fame bound coach groomed new guy Jim Caldwell for the job.

Peyton Manning is still there with weapons, and if a defense that was in the upper-echelon of passing D last year can improve on stopping the run, the Colts might become the favorite to represent the AFC.

The Titans lost Albert Haynesworth, a rock that led the defense, and arguably their best player on that side of the ball.

Though they have a solid running game (which will be improved because LenDale White admittedly gave up his heavy consumption of Patron), an experienced quarterback, and an unflashy-yet-effective team that should compete for a wild-card spot, I think they missed their chance to do something special last year.

The Texans look good on paper with a lethal offense and a front four led by Mario Williams (insert obligatory Reggie Bush comment here), but they have an injury-prone quarterback and they have issues stopping the run.

Most worrisome is the thought of what will happen, not if, but when, Matt Schaub is forced out of the lineup due to injury. Last year he missed four games, but Sage Rosenfels stepped in and managed to win two games.

This year, are you really banking your playoff hopes on Dan Orlovsky or Rex Grossman to pick up the slack when you have Indy and Tennessee on your schedule two times each?…YIKES! Throw in the fact that they always start slow, and I think you will see a .500 season from the Texans.

The Jaguars were decimated by injuries last year, so they will no-doubt be better, but now Fred Taylor is gone, so 5’ 7” MJD (Maurice Jones-Drew) will be given the reins at running back for the first time.

As explosive as he is, I need MJD to show me something on a consistent basis before I can say the Jags have a hope at the playoffs.

Plus they have an inconsistent QB who can manage a game, but will have a hard time single-handedly winning one for you…especially with a receiving core of Torry Holt, Troy Williamson, Mike Sims-Walker, and Nate Hughes. My point exactly…who?

AFC East

New England 12-4

New York 8-8

Miami 7-9

Buffalo 6-10

How I See It:

The Patriots have arguably the best QB in the world returning from a serious injury that cost him all but about eight minutes of last season. They also still have Randy Moss and Wes Welker catching passes, and a new red-zone target in TE Chris Baker.

It will be strange to see their defense without Tedy Bruschi flying around at LB, but their mastermind coach who will remain nameless (I’ve hated him with a fiery passion since he resigned as the "HC of the NYJ", and went on to win world titles with our arch-nemesis up North) always finds a way to get the most out of whoever is wearing the blue, red, and silver that week.

They should have no trouble wrapping up the division well before Christmas.

All bias aside, I think we are going to see a mixed bag from the Jets this season. Playmakers like Leon Washington, Darrell Revis, and Bart Scott will be fun to watch, and an outstanding O-line, lethal linebacking crew, and above average secondary will keep the Jets in every game.

I think Mark Sanchez is going to be an outstanding QB one day, but I can’t predict a winning season for a team facing their type of schedule with a rookie QB, rookie head coach, and revamped defense…even if they are my team.

You heard it here first…or second…or third…well, okay, you heard it here: the trick is up, and the Miami Dolphins will come crashing back down to earth this year.

A good D will keep them in games, an excellent game manager at QB will routinely give them a shot to win, but a lack of playmakers and a first-place schedule makes this team finish below .500.

One could argue that the offensive line is the most important part of a football team. It establishes the run, blocks for the QB, and is key to offensive success.

Do you know how many O-lineman there are on the field at one time? Five. Do you know how many starting O-lineman are new or playing a new position on the Buffalo Bills this season? Five. Did I mention that the Bills QB has concussion issues and that the O-line is brand new?

Throw in the fact that the newly-implemented no-huddle offense has yet to score a TD in the preseason (I don’t care if it’s only preseason!), and they have a goober of a head coach (I’m not even sure what that means, but it’s the first thing that came to mind when thinking of Dick Jauron), and it’s going to be a long season in Buffalo.

Even though they do have some nice weapons with Marshawn Lynch (suspended until week four), Terrell Owens, and Lee Evans, if you don’t have an O-line to block for you, your offense is going to be about as effective as a condom that’s been put through a blender.

NOTE: since I wrote this article, the Bills have fired their offensive coordinator, further proving that they are in shambles and will be terrible.

AFC West

San Diego 11-5

Oakland 6-10

Kansas City 5-11

Denver 4-12

How I See It:

The Chargers are going to be a trendy pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this year. They have a ton of talent, an easy division, and playmakers on both sides of the ball.

On the other hand, they have Norv Turner to kill their championship dreams, and a few tough games (playing the NFC East is not easy) that will lead me to project them a win or two lower than most. They will still run away with the division, however.

The Raiders have named Jamarcus Russell the starting QB, and he will try to team up with a now-healthy Darren McFadden to lead a youth-movement in old-as-dirt Al Davis’ Black Hole.

The defense should continue to be stout and stingy, and an effective running game should allow Russell to make some plays. The Raiders will take strides this year, but I’m still not impressed.

Getting rid of Herm Edwards will automatically get the Chiefs a few more wins, and bringing in Matt Cassel at QB will help. Still, trading away your best receiver in tight end Tony Gonzalez is a head scratcher, and the O-line in KC is not nearly as good as Cassel had in New England.

Consider that the defense will take time to adjust from a 4-3 to a 3-4, there are not many weapons other than Dwayne Bowe on offense, and Cassel and back-up Tyler Thigpen are already injured (sprained MCL and broken ribs, respectively), and you have Brodie Croyle leading a below average team.

The Broncos quickly rid themselves of all the legitimacy that Mike Shanahan brought during his long tenure as head coach.

Josh McDaniels (the latest mini-Belicheck) quickly ran Jay Cutler, his gun-slinging franchise quarterback, out of town, and has caused his No. 1 receiver, Brandon Marshall, to get all pouty and suspended for “conduct detrimental to the team."

Great offseason in Denver, right?

Factor in that Denver relied on the aforementioned Cutler to win them games by putting up points and over-compensating for their porous defense; their current QB is Kyle Orton; Kyle Orton isn’t very good; porous is an adjective used to describe crappy defenses; and you have a disaster of a season looming in the Rockies.