Five Bold Predictions For the 2009 NFL Season

As any fan of football knows, the NFL season begins Thursday night. It’s been an interesting preseason to say the least, and if this pace continues, ratings should reach record highs this year.

To make things interesting, here are a few bold predictions for the season.

1. The Philadelphia Eagles Aren't as Good as You Think

The only thing the addition of Michael Vick has done is create a quarterback controversy and divide the locker room. And don’t forget Brian Westbrook is coming off surgery and is now 30 years old. For running backs, that’s the beginning of the end. The Eagles may not run the ball a lot, but Westbrook is usually the team’s leading receiver.

While the Eagles may still be the class of the division this year (due to a lack of improvement by the Redskins and the loss of No. 1 receivers by both the Giants and Cowboys), crowning them Super Bowl Champions during the preseason for adding a backup quarterback is an utterly ridiculous assumption.

2. The Raiders Will Finish in Second Place in the AFC West

It sounds crazy to say, but hear me out.

The Chiefs added a franchise quarterback during the offseason, trading for Matt Cassel. While they improved at that position, they also traded away Tony Gonzalez, widely regarded to be the best tight end in the history of the league. Larry Johnson is showing his age and the defense is still as poor as the one that limped to a 2-14 record last year.

The Broncos managed to get worse too.

New head coach Josh McDaniels immediately alienated starting quarterback Jay Cutler by attempting to trade for Cassel. In turn, Cutler decided to whine and cry about the situation instead of being a team leader, and got traded to the Bears.

While Kyle Orton, the man most likely to replace Cutler, isn’t an awful quarterback, he isn’t great either. Orton is at his best when he has a strong running game supporting him and when he doesn’t have to throw more than 20 passes.

The real reason the Broncos will suffer this year is because they have a new head coach, and with a new coach comes a new offense. Forget what happened last year in Atlanta and Baltimore; teams usually play abysmally in their first year in a new offensive or defensive system.

Not to mention, they have to deal with the ticking time bomb of distraction known as Brandon Marshall. He’s been suspended for insubordination already during the preseason, and I really don’t see him finishing the season in a Bronco uniform.

The Raiders, now with a legitimate deep-threat receiver in Darius Heyward-Bey and solid defensive end Richard Seymour, have actually started to look like a middle-of-the-road AFC team. If JaMarcus Russell can play with confidence and just manage not to screw things up, the Raiders could break even this year.

3. The Winner of the NFC West Will Have a sub-.500 Record.

Really, that one isn’t a stretch. The Cardinals won the division last year with a 9-7 record. While that’s not terrible, the embarrassment is the fact that they only scored one more point than they gave up.

That’s right. One.

And two-thirds of their wins came against the division, meaning the Cards went only 3-7 outside the NFC West. They also choked down the stretch, going 2-3 in their last five games, nearly losing the division to the San Francisco 49ers.

Not a single team in that division has their long-term quarterback situation figured out. Kurt Warner is signed for two years and has the likes of Matt Leinart (looking like another first-round bust) and Brian St. Pierre for backups, Marc Bulger is on the hot seat in St. Louis, it looks like the end of the line for Matt Hasselbeck (so much so that the Seahawks were expected to draft Mark Sanchez) and the 49ers have no-names at the position.

Not a single one of those four teams has a defense. They just have a bunch of guys that stand on the field while their opponent’s offense scores.

This is, without a doubt, the weakest division in football. The NFC South, on the other hand, had all four members score more points than they gave up, the only division to accomplish this feat. In spite of being dead last in their division, the Saints, at 8-8, would legitimately challenge the junior varsity squads put on the field in the NFC West.

4. The Colts Will Miss the Playoffs

I actually had to sleep on this one because it didn’t feel right at first. But there are ample reasons why it could happen.

Tony Dungy has retired from coaching, leaving Jim Caldwell as the head coach. He coached previously in college, but only with a record of 26-63, and his only season with a win percentage over .500 happened in 1999 when Wake Forest went 7-5.

What confuses me more is the fact that before Dungy’s retirement, Caldwell was the quarterbacks coach for the Colts. That’s right. Not the offensive or defensive coordinator, but a position coach. I don’t feel he has the experience to lead this team, especially having to follow such a strong leader as Dungy.

While his season last year was awful to say the least, the Colts will miss Marvin Harrison's veteran leadership. Peyton Manning will now have to lead the team by himself, and considering the Titan's strength last year and the ever-improving Texans, it may be too much for one man to do.

The defense has been in decline recently as well. Last year, the Colts defense allowed more yards through the air than Manning could throw. If that isn’t a warning sign, I don’t know what is.

The biggest issue is Bob Sanders. When he’s healthy, the Colts defense is unstoppable. When he’s hurt, they play like a doormat. One player shouldn’t be that important to your team. The Colts need to find depth on their defense quickly.

Lastly, consider the strength of the AFC. The New England Patriots won 11 games last season and missed the playoffs. The Colts won 12 and were only a Wild Card team. It’s going to take an amazing season just to make the playoffs if this season is anything like last year, and for a team in transition, there’s a good chance it just won’t happen.

5. This year's Super Bowl Champion Will be a First-Timer

Last year, five out of the six NFC teams in the playoffs had not won a Super Bowl before, and two out of the six AFC teams could make the same claim.

The Vikings are the favorites in the NFC (0-4 in Super Bowls), but don’t sleep on Carolina or Atlanta. Matt Ryan was spectacular last year, winning Rookie of the Year, and with the addition of Tony Gonzalez to help take some pressure off Roddy White and Michael Turner, Atlanta’s offense should be explosive this year.

Carolina, on the other hand, didn’t have to do much to improve on last year. If the Panthers can focus on playing the same run-first, pass-second style of play that put up over 300 yards rushing against Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football, they should be able to win the division for the second year in a row.

In the AFC, the Titans should remain strong even with the departure of Albert Haynesworth. As with the Panthers, the Titans need to focus on their strength: running the ball. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the AFC title game.

The Chargers showed a lot of promise late in the season, and with their backs against the wall (and with the Broncos' collapse), San Diego kept winning and won the AFC West. Shawne Merriman is healthy this season and his return to the team should help the Chargers improve by three or four wins.

Anything can happen in the NFL. Week One is full of surprises year in and year out, and as a fan of the game of football, I’m excited to see what develops this season.