Where Can the Indiana Pacers Trade Roy Hibbert During the 2015 Offseason?
For now, Roy Hibbert remains with the Indiana Pacers. But that's likely to change very soon.
At the end of June, Hibbert elected to opt-in for the final year of his contract, securing a $15.5 million salary for himself this season and making himself an unrestricted free agent at the end of next season.
The Pacers appear to be less than thrilled with this state of affairs and are reported to be actively working to trade Hibbert.
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Hibbert was underwhelming last season—falling off slightly as a defensive force and continuing to offer next to nothing on offense. This is just one year removed from playing a huge role in the Pacers catastrophic second-half decline in the 2013-14 season. All things considered, it's a disturbing trend for a max player whose effort has been questioned.
In his end-of-season press conference, team president Larry Bird gave a Hibbert a not-so-subtle nudge away from his picking up his player option for next year, saying, "We assume he's [Hibbert] going to be back, and if he comes back, we're probably going to play another style, and I can't guarantee him anything. He's going to have to earn it," according to Candace Buckner of The Indianapolis Star.
Bird went on to elaborate, also per the Buckner article, on the different style he'd like to play, subtly pointing out other places Hibbert wouldn't fit:
"I was talking to coach earlier; we'd like to play a little faster tempo. And that means we've got to run a little faster, maybe at times play a little smaller. We just got into it, so I don't know what style, but we'd like to change it a little bit. … But I would like to score more points, and to do that, you've got to run.
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Setting aside the question of style, there is the matter of actual production. A study at Forbes last summer found that, on average, teams paid about $1.65 million per Win Share (a measure of player productivity correlated to actual wins). At Hibbert's salary for next season, an average level of production would be about 9.4 Win Shares. Hibbert produced 4.2 Win Shares last year. Magic pebbles and birthday wishes aside, there are no plausible scenarios where he suddenly becomes twice the player he was last year.
The issue is that all the reasons the Pacers would like to trade Hibbert—poor production, bad stylistic fit, enormous contract—are the same reasons that other teams would be skeptical about acquiring him. As Zach Lowe of Grantland put it:
"It will be surprising if the Pacers can snag a real asset for Hibbert. Few teams in the new NBA are starved for cap relief, and that has sucked away most of the trade value that expiring contracts once carried. Everyone will have room when the cap skyrockets next summer, and most contracts under the new collective bargaining agreement are so short, teams can see their expiration date from the moment they are signed.
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The reality of Hibbert's situation means the only likely trade partners for the Pacers would have an equally valueless contract to trade and would either play a system where Hibbert could fit in, or aren't necessarily tied to making the playoffs and being as competitive as possible next season.
Looking at the landscape, that leaves just a handful of possibilities.
As is, the Celtics will be paying Gerald Wallace just over $10 million next season to take up a roster spot. Wallace has one year left on his deal, played just 286 minutes for the Celtics last season and has no place in the future of this team.
Using Wallace as a primary trade chip in a Hibbert deal would at least allow the Celtics to get some production for their money. He may not factor into their long-term plans any more than Wallace does, but Hibbert could also be cut loose at the end of next season without any long-term cost for the Celtics—a team that is in desperate need of rim protection.
In the meantime, Hibbert could provide rim protection for a messy roster of ill-fitting pieces looking to coalesce into something young and competitive. If, by some miracle, the team and Hibbert develop some sort of promising synergy, they'd have an advantage in re-signing him next summer at a much more reasonable price.
There is a significant difference in Hibbert and Wallace's salaries—just over $5 million—which would necessitate the Celtics throwing in at least one more player to make the deal meet league rules. Given that Hibbert would be most likely a one-year rental for the Celtics, that extra player heading back to the Pacers would probably not be a significant piece.
Either of the Celtics' first round draft picks would work—Terry Rozier, a pesky point guard defender, and R.J. Hunter an outside shooting specialist on the wings. Both players would give the Pacers some added depth and youth to develop, but neither fills a need in any dramatic way. It might be strange to consider the Celtics giving up a first round pick for Hibbert, but neither Rozier or Hunter look like the kind of player to dramatically change the fortunes of Boston.
Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk and Tyler Zeller would all make the salaries work as well. Individually, each would appear to be far more valuable to the Celtics than Hibbert. But there is enough overlap in their mid-range-shooting skill sets that the Celtics may be willing to part with one of them for a little variety in their frontcourt.
From a Pacers perspective, one of these youthful bigs might give them the lineup flexibility they've been looking for in terms of spacing the floor. Each could also provide a chance to play with a little more offensive space than they mustered with Hibbert's plodding low-post-focused skill set on the floor, something the organization has made clear they'll prioritize going forward.
The Nuggets are another team looking for a dramatic remaking of their roster. Like the Celtics, they are not necessarily gunning for the playoffs next season and could be okay with trying out Hibbert as a way to shake up their core and their style of play without assuming long-term risk.
The Nuggets already have their center of the future in Jusuf Nurkic, but Hibbert is probably best suited for a smaller role anyway. Both players are slow of foot and so a similar defensive scheme would play to the strengths of both.
In a deal with the Nuggets, Danilo Gallinari would probably need to be the key piece heading back to Indiana. His deal has just one season left, as well, at just over $11 million, and he's been mentioned in trade rumors this offseason as a potential Memphis Grizzlies target. He has struggled to stay healthy for the past few seasons but—when able to stay in the lineup—was a dynamic outside shooter capable of playing both forward positions. In a vacuum, Gallinari would be the ideal type of player to allow Indiana to play a more versatile and flexible offensive style.
Gallinari also will be a free agent at the end of next season and, like Wallace, his salary doesn't quite match Hibbert's. Even with his injury history, he's probably much more highly regarded than Hibbert. To make things work, the Pacers would probably need to also take J.J. Hickson's one-year, $5.6 million contract, possibly even sending a draft pick back to Denver as well.
This deal is more of a stretch than the Boston scenarios, but it is probably more enticing for Indiana, provided they feel comfortable with Gallinari's health.
The Mavericks currently have just over $30 million in salaries committed for next season, according to Sportrac. They have already cut ties with Tyson Chandler, Rajon Rondo and Monta Ellis, meaning there are holes all over their rotation. Part of the salary-slashing has been a big push to sign DeAndre Jordan. However, if he decides to sign elsewhere, a one-year rental of Hibbert might be a reasonable backup option.
This morning, Tim MacMahon of ESPN reported that the Mavericks would be open to this exact scenario if negotations with Jordan fall apart.
Depending on how the rest of their free agent signings shake out, the Mavericks could theoretically absorb Hibbert's salary without having to send back equal salaries. They don't have much to offer the Pacers in terms of players, but if the deal was done in the next few days, the Pacers could use the cap space left over in the deal to pursue someone else.
This is an unlikely possibility. However, when the Mavericks have missed out on big free agent targets in the past, they've shown a willingness to roll things over with second-tier contributors on short contracts. In that regard, Hibbert would fit the bill perfectly. And he would help to shore up a defense that ranked 20th in the league in efficiency last season, according to Basketball-Reference.
So Where Could Hibbert End Up?
The truth is that none of these options are slam dunks for either team involved. All things being equal, it seems just as likely that no worthwhile deal emerges.
If the Pacers are forced to hold onto to Hibbert for the beginning of the season, trying to find a trade partner later in the year around the deadline may allow the team to get something of more value for Hibbert's expiring deal.
Hibbert's stock certainly isn't going drop any lower. He has been such a huge part of the team's defense and identity over the past few seasons that it might be worth giving him one more opportunity to make this thing work, if only to flip him for another piece before his contract—and tenure—with the Pacers runs out.
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