Reckless Adventues in Optimism: Why The Lions Win 10 Games in 2009

Yes, dear reader, you read that headline correctly. The Detroit Lions will win 10 games and the division in 2009. Yes, the same Detroit Lions that went 0-16 last season, the same Detroit Lions that haven't had a winning season in nine years, the same Detroit Lions that thought starting this guy at QB for 7 games last season was a good idea.

All the naysayers out there might say: "Aside from your reckless optimism, there is absolutely no logical reason to make this bold a prediction. In fact, three wins would be pretty good at this point." And to them, I would say: "Shut up and grab me another drink, the floor hasn't started spinning yet." And then, when sober, I would say: "Nay to you, naysayer! In fact, I say bollocks to you and your keen grasp of recent Lions history! BOLLOCKS! You have obviously already forgotten that this year's roster looks much, much different than last year's roster! And what about all the other worst to first teams in NFL history?" (Yes, I realize that last link is to an article published in the year 2000. This is why I am a blogger and not a columnist. That, and the whole "not getting paid" thing. But I digress.)

Here are some more crazy predictions for the upcoming season of Lions football. Before we start, may I suggest some Kool-Aid? It's freshly made. Honolulu blue, of course.

1. The Lions Will Not Go 16-0. I fully realize that this is not a very bold prediction. (Forecasting a December snowfall in Michigan might be bolder, though I suppose we can't completely discount global warming.) Why will they not go 16-0? Many positions have been significantly upgraded from last year's roster. The offensive line has not. And that o-line has been bad, bad, bad.

Yes, this is the same offensive line that brought us last year's debacle and 2007's second half collapse. But it is ALSO the same offensive line that got the Lions out to that 6-2 start in 2007, and they've been on this particular roller coaster together a long time now. What if Matt Millen actually DID finally figure out what he was doing and somehow put together an offensive line that can, y'know, block, needing a season or two to figure it out and pull things together? He didn't, of course.

2. Kevin Smith will rush for 1,500 yards. He was 24 yards short of 1,000 last season, in grand Lions tradition. Barry Sanders pulled himself from the last game of his rookie season 10 yards short of the league rushing title. The Lions were winning the game, and Barry Sanders is a class act. (Barry Sanders was, in his prime, also one of the only persons on this earth who could tie Chuck Norris in a footrace. Obviously, no one beats the Chuck.) It's also worth mentioning that Kevin Smith finished his college career 62 yards short of the all time NCAA record...which belongs to Barry Sanders. I'm a sucker for superstitious symmetry. And alliteration. But again, I digress.

If not for being benched in favor of Rudi Johnson for a few games early on, he could have easily rushed for over 1,000. And sure, he struggled early last year as a rookie, but around week 10 he started averaging nearly 100 yards a game (the Tennessee stink bomb notwithstanding). He's also even more of a reckless optimist than I am, which I like. (Scroll down a bit to his post from May 6th.) If there's a team that could use more reckless optimism, it's the Lions.

3. Ernie Sims will make the Pro Bowl. Hey, isn't Gunther Cunningham that guy that used to coach the Chiefs, and has been a pretty good D-coordinator for a while? Hey, isn't that the guy that played linebacker for the Steelers last year? Hey, isn't that the sometimes Pro Bowl linebacker that played for MSU a long time ago? Aren't they all upgrades over whoever Millen and Marinelli picked to make this defense work? Yes. Yes they are. They, and the new defensive scheme, will put Ernie Sims back on the NFL map. Gunther Cunningham and Ernie Sims both want Ernie Sims running downhill, directly at the opposing offense. This can only be a good thing.

Ernie Sims will have a big year. I mean, I'm not saying I WANT Brett Favre's knee, shoulder, or elbow sprained, crushed, or destroyed in Week 2 at Ford Field, ending his career and leaving the Vikings in the hands of Sage "Helicopter" Rosenfels or Tavaris "Rag Doll" Jackson, I'm just asking if it would be a bad thing. (Answer: No. No it would not.) Yeah...biiiig year for Ernie Sims.

4. I will miss having Cory Schleshinger around. When I first made my list of 10 Lions predictions, I wanted to come up with something nice to say about the current Lions' FB situation. Then I realized that I wasn't even sure if Detroit even had any FBs on its roster. (They do, actually. The starting FB's name is Jerome Felton, and according to the bio on his college page, he's a professionally trained scuba diver and rescuer. So that's neat!)

I just know that Cory Schleshinger was a tank, one of the few perennially decent players the Lions have had in the last thirty years. I figure at some point this season, I am going to wish the Lions had a fullback who could pound the rock in the red zone the way this guy used to. (Interesting tidbit: Lions FBs rushed the ball three times last season. THREE! Unless the coaching staff gets back to solid, black and blue, NFC North style football, Jerome Felton will probably not score many TDs this season, causing him to eventually leave football for a gig on a Caribbean island, rescuing beautiful girls that can't swim from horrible drownings, pretending that he never, ever played for the Detroit Lions, lest the beautiful girls try to escape from his arms for fear of accidental, rescuer induced drowning.)

5. Brandon Pettigrew is what fantasy football players call a "sleeper." Pettigrew was picked with the first rounder Detroit got from Dallas in the Roy Williams trade. For once, the Lions brass pulled a fast one on an opposing team's GM (albeit a GM that also happens to be the second craziest team owner in the league). He's big, he's fast, and he'll get a lot of the red zone touches that the barely-existent Lions FBs would have gotten. He'll certainly score more than two touchdowns, which is what 2008 Lions TEs Michael Gaines and John Owens combined to put up. As a bonus, he played college ball for a 40 year old man.

6. The coaching staff will be much better, simply because they are not last year's staff. Let's examine a quote from one Mr. Rod Marinelli:

"You would think, at this level, that you shouldn't have to coach tackling. No, you do. The people that don't, don't tackle well. You watch games and say, 'Well, that's sloppy tackling.' Well, you have to work on tackles and angles. It's your fundamentals. It's like if you are playing golf, you work on your golf swing even if you play 20 years, right?"

Actually, Rod, I WOULD think that at this level, you shouldn't have to coach tackling. I'm sure that after the Titans and Patriots are done with training camp that Jeff Fisher and Bill Belichick spend a lot of time teaching their guys proper four point tackling technique. And yes, during your three years as head coach, the Lions WERE sloppy tacklers. Obviously, your players did not actually LEARN anything when you were instructing them on how to do something THEY should have learned a long, long time ago. And I tried to think of a way to make your golf analogy work in the context of the rest of your quote, but it just hurt my head. I don't know EXACTLY how this new coaching staff is going to work out, but I know that I am glad Rod Marinelli has nothing to do with the Detroit Lions anymore.

7. Matthew Stafford will be a straight up baller. The Matthew Stafford Era will be a good thing, Lions fans. Matthew Stafford is not Joey Harrington. Matthew Stafford is not Joey Harrington. Matthew Stafford. Is not. Joey Harrington. Aw, man...typing Joey Harrington that many times in a row just caused me to weep uncontrollably. Let's move on.

How do I know Matthew Stafford will be a straight up baller? First, watch that highlight reel again. (This is where the naysayers may be tempted to say something like "But Joey Harrington ALSO has some awesome college highlight reels!!!", to which I would reply, "Did you get me that drink yet? The floor STILL isn't spinning AND I'm about to hit you.")

Also, there's the whole "Curse of Bobby Layne" business. Here's the Cliffs Notes version (which I am only calling the Cliffs Notes version because the geezers out there haven't heard about Spark Notes yet):

Bobby Layne was the last Hall of Fame QB the Detroit Lions ever had. After leading the Lions to three NFL championships in the 1950's, he was unceremoniously traded in 1958 to the Steelers. Apparently, he was very upset about this. In angry retribution, he decided the Lions would not win again for the next 50 years (and since he's Bobby Layne he got to "decide" this and not "predict" it). Well...let's crunch some numbers here. 1958...plus 50...2008...OMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMG THE CURSE HAS EXPIRED!!!

And if that doesn't do it for you...Bobby Layne graduated from Highland Park High School in Dallas, TX. Know who else graduated from Highland Park?...one Matthew Stafford. Hey, I already told you, I'm a sucker for superstitious symmetry.

8. The Lions will be plus-.500 in division play. According to my hypothesis, Kevin Smith, Ernie Sims, Brandon Pettigrew and Matthew Stafford will all have breakout seasons (and I didn't even mention the big year we're all expecting Calvin Johnson to have, but how does he have a big season if Stafford doesn't also?), Brett Favre will be retired for real by the end of Week 2, the improved linebacker corps will make the rest of the Lions' D at least serviceable, and the coaches seem to know what they're doing.

According to this same hypothesis, Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler will each have at least one terrible game against the Lions, while Matthew Stafford will torch the Packers and Bears twice. (I'd explain further, but (a) I don't have stats to back it up and (b) I'm too lazy to want to write a whole lot more, and this article is already past my self-imposed deadline.) This means either a 5-1 or 4-2 divisional record for the Lions, which is absolutely possible in a mediocre NFC North, and should be enough to take them to the division title.

9. Also, the Lions' non-divisional schedule isn't that tough. The Saints in week 1, the Steelers in week 5 and the Ravens in week 14 are the only elite teams the Lions will play all year. The Saints' offense will tear up the Lions' secondary, and the Steelers and Ravens will probably both have good days against Matthew Stafford. All the other games on the schedule, though, are very winnable. (Naysayers: "Of course, a lot of LAST year's games were winnable, too." Damn you, naysayers! You're very good at what you do. Good thing for you the floor is spinning now.)

So if we take the slightly inflated divisional record of 5-1 (which we will, because we're optimists until the Lions play week one) and the three aforementioned losses, the Lions only need to win five games out of seven against the likes of the Redskins (whose front office secretly hates their starting QB), Rams (who can score points but can't stop anyone), Seahawks (who are very, very average), Browns (we pretty much own them going back to the 50's), Bengals (who should have never been on HBO's Hard Knocks, it's going to mess with their whole season), Cardinals (who not only won't go back to the Super Bowl, but won't make the playoffs), and 49ers (also very average).

So there you go. This has been your case study in how a perpetually downtrodden fan base psyches itself up for what will probably be another season in which we try to find out what the word "futility" really means.

But until then, have another glass of Kool-Aid. My treat.