BYU's Chances of Going Undefeated and Playing for a National Championship

Contrary to my beliefs of a bias against the Mountain West, BYU has earned the respect of the sports media, jumping to No. 9 in the AP poll.

This is the highest ranking a team from a non-BCS conference has had after the first week of the season.

With BYU's upcoming schedule, which includes TCU (16), Utah (17), and Florida State (32); BYU has an opportunity to rise much higher.

If BYU runs the table, they will most likely have an opportunity to play in the title game. But what are the odds that it actually happens?

Here is a look at the rest of their schedule:

Sept. 12 at Tulane

This one should be easy. Tulane got blown out by Tulsa in the opening weekend, and was only 2-10 last year.

Likelihood of a BYU win: 99%

Sept. 19 vs. Florida State

BYU's home opener, this is one of three very tough home games for BYU. BYU will be favored in this game, but not by much. FSU dropped their opener to Miami, but came a few yards short of the end zone in the final seconds and ended up losing by four.

This game will help show if the Cougars are the real deal, or if they just played out of their minds against Oklahoma. Florida State will definitely not underestimate BYU here. BYU's fans will come out in droves to support their team and Provo is a very tough place to play.

Likelihood of a BYU win: 75%

Sept. 26 vs. Colorado State

Colorado State is clearly in the middle tier of the MWC. They had the second most impressive MWC win of opening weekend, defeating their big 12 rival, Colorado. This one could be tough if the Cougars underestimate them.

Likelihood of a BYU win: 95%

Oct. 2 vs. Utah State

USU did look vastly more competitive then expected against Utah. They ran for 221 yards against a good team. They showed big-play potential with a 96 yard run in the first quarter. They play some very tough teams this year - Utah (17), BYU, (9), and Texas A&M on the road, and Boise St. (12) at home. But they might be able to win 4-6 games in an underated WAC conference. But, this one really isn't even worth worrying about. 

Likelihood of a BYU win: 99%

Oct. 10 at UNLV

This one should be interesting. BYU needed a late TD to avoid the upset in Provo last year, and UNLV should be much improved. They beat Iowa State and Arizona State last year, but faltered in their conference schedule, going 2-6. This is BYU's toughest road game remaining.

Likelihood of a BYU win: 85%

Oct. 17 at San Diego State

This one should be easy for BYU, but on the road, you never know. BYU has had a history of doing well in San Diego, I expect that trend to continue.

Likelihood of a BYU win: 95%

Oct. 24 vs. TCU

TCU is yet to play this year, but they were the consensus preseason pick to win the MWC. They beat BYU 32-7 last year, when BYU was ranked eighth in the nation and was 6-0.

BYU will be looking for revenge. I judge this game as the toughest remaining game on BYU's schedule. BYU hasn't lost a home game in nearly four years. But those losses in 2005 came to TCU and Utah.

Likelihood of a BYU win: 65%

Nov. 7 at Wyoming

Wyoming had trouble beating Weber St. in the opener, winning 29-22; but they usually are very competitive in Laramie. However, BYU shouldn't have much trouble at all with this one. (If Wyoming upsets Texas this weekend, then I will laugh myself to death)

Likelihood of a BYU win: 95%

Nov. 14 at New Mexico

New Mexico didn't look very good in their opener against Texas A&M, losing 41-6. BYU should be able to pull of the win here.

Likelihood of a BYU win: 95%

Nov. 21 vs. Air Force

Air Force decimated Nichols State 72-0 in their opener. They will battle with UNLV and Colorado State to be the fourth best team in the conference. They could keep this one close, but I expect a BYU victory.

Likelihood of a BYU win: 90%

Nov. 28 vs. Utah

Utah destroyed BYU last year 45-24, because of five Max Hall interceptions. Despite either team's record, this game has been very competitive in recent years. BYU pulled of two miracle plays in 2006 and 2007 to win. This is one of the fiercest, most competitive, and important rivalries in all of college football.

Utah didn't look great against Utah State in their opener, but they got the job done. If BYU is still undefeated up to this point, they will likely be playing for a spot in the national title game and have a top-three ranking.

This could be a game for the ages. But I expect BYU's home-field advantage to carry the day.

Likelihood of a BYU win: 70%

Now I've made a lot of predictions, based solely on my subjective biases and week one college football action. But assuming the predictions I've made up to this point are correct, I will try and compute the likelihood of BYU going undefeated through the rest of their season.

Now all I have to do is multiply .99 x .75 x .95 x .99 x . 85 x .95 x . 65 x .95 x .95 x .9 x .7

And the answer comes out too...

So BYU has a 20.8% chance of finishing the regular season undefeated...

And if they can do that, then we will likely see BYU vs. Texas, Florida, USC, or some other college football powerhouse in a national title game in Pasadena.

*Update* - As the season progresses, I will keep updating this percentage, removing each game won from the equation.

After Beating Tulane 54-3, BYU's chances go to a solid 21%!

After Losing to Florida State, BYU's chances of going undefeated go to 0%!

Their chances of going 11-1 are 28%

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