Fresh MLB Playoff Predictions as Midway Point Nears
The time to reconsider some things is upon us.
The Major League Baseball season is nearly three months old and is just shy of the halfway mark for games played. Through the 70-plus games already in the book for each team, there have been pleasant surprises and disappointments.
Because of those occurrences, chances are everyone's preseason predictions have taken some dings along the way. It's not like the entire world picked the Houston Astros to be leading their division heading into the All-Star break or the Washington Nationals to struggle to separate in theirs, right?
So, based on what we've seen so far, some tinkering with predictions is in order.
At the near-halfway point of the season, here are some revised playoff guesstimates with division winners and Wild Card holders for both leagues.
American League East: Tampa Bay Rays
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When the season started, the Rays seemed to be the ignored team in this division. But they have forced themselves into the conversation by doing what they always do—pitching and pitching well.
Tampa Bay's rotation went into its weekend series against the Boston Red Sox, a chic preseason pick to win the division, with the second-lowest ERA, FIP, xFIP and BABIP in the American League, according to FanGraphs data. It had the second-highest strikeout rate and was third in overall WAR, strikeout-to-walk ratio, strikeouts per nine innings and home runs allowed per nine innings. It led the league in strand rate (77.4 percent).
It has the best pitcher in the division, if not the entire American League, in Chris Archer, and things could get better. Jake Odorizzi and his 2.47 ERA are on the disabled list but could return in a couple weeks. Drew Smyly is rehabbing from his labrum tear and could return in the second half, and Matt Moore, an All-Star in 2013 who had Tommy John surgery last year, will rejoin the rotation next week for the first time since April 7 of last season.
The Rays, currently leading the AL East, don't do much in the way of offense, but as they have proved in the past, great pitching can overcome other deficiencies to win their offense-heavy division.
The New York Yankees might be the most well-rounded club in the East, but their pitching is not consistent enough, and they are at risk of falling back with an injury to any of their key cogs.
The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles can score, but they might not prevent other teams from scoring enough to showcase their firepower. Plus, the Rays have beaten Toronto seven of the 10 times they've met, showing what quality pitching can do to quality hitting.
As for the Red Sox, well, you've seen the debacle they've become as they continue falling out of contention.
National League East: Washington Nationals
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It took almost half a season, but the Nationals are finally resembling the team so many believed would run away with the division after they signed ace Max Scherzer.
They have won seven consecutive games, and their rotation, once hailed as the best in the business before a pitch was ever thrown, had a streak of 48 consecutive scoreless innings snapped Friday. Scherzer has led the way, as he's being paid to do, with a 1.79 ERA. And in his last three starts, he's pitched 26 innings, allowed six hits and two runs with a no-hitter sandwiched in the middle.
The recent comebacks of Stephen Strasburg and Doug Fister have provided signs of promise. If those two can keep it up, Washington's rotation will dominate the rest of the league in the second half.
It would also bury the New York Mets. Not that the Mets are completely awful, despite their recent seven-game losing skid, but the Nationals would be that much better.
The Nats have struggled with injuries and shoddy performances throughout the first two-plus months, but their pitching is finally starting to live up to the preseason hype. That means they will be putting this division to bed soon enough.
American League Central: Kansas City Royals
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The problem for the Royals coming into the season was starting pitching. Mainly, did they have enough of it to return to the postseason so they could defend their American League pennant?
Well, that concern is still legitimate, as the rotation has been worth a lousy 3.5 WAR, better than only the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL by FanGraphs' calculations. It could be a damning fact if the offense was not outperforming last season's numbers, when it was 11th in the league in wRC+ and 10th in wOBA.
This season the Royals' hitters are currently seventh in wRC+ (103) and fifth in wOBA (.320). Both those marks are above league average, according to FanGraphs.
Their bullpen and defense have not fallen off from last season either. This year, the relievers have a 2.09 ERA despite closer Greg Holland missing a few weeks with a pectoral strain. Their 40 defensive runs saved are by far the most in the majors, according to FanGraphs. Those parts of the team have led to the Royals having a plus-55 run differential, which is second-best in the league.
The Detroit Tigers have won the division four years in a row, but this year their rotation has not pitched well enough, and the bullpen is still a serious problem.
The Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians have disappointed, and while the Minnesota Twins have been one of the game's surprises this year, they likely do not have enough firepower to sustain a real threat to the Royals.
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National League Central: St. Louis Cardinals
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Injuries have yet to take a toll on the Cardinals, but there have been plenty, from Adam Wainwright to Matt Holliday. Still, the team has kept rolling and is 16-7 in June despite Wainwright having been gone since April and Holliday missing all but a week of the month.
The main reason is the rotation. Its 2.93 ERA led the majors entering Saturday. Its 3.27 FIP was third, its 8.3 Fangraphs WAR was second and its 78.3 percent strand rate was first.
The bullpen has put up like numbers with a big league-leading 2.07 ERA and 86.5 percent strand rate.
The Cardinals have not slouched offensively, either. Their 102 wRC+ was third in the league as of the start of play Saturday, and their .318 wOBA was fifth, according to FanGraphs.
Add in the fact that they boast one of the best defenses in the league, and the Cardinals are possibly the most complete team in the NL. That their lead in the Central is eight games means they are in a comfortable position, even with those injuries.
American League West: Houston Astros
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Yes, they have staying power. It's hard to argue that when they still hold a five-game lead in the division nearly halfway through the season.
The Astros were supposed to be a couple seasons away from this, but they're in contention now, which forces them to promote players sooner than expected. Shortstop Carlos Correa is a perfect example of this, but he has already proved he is ready for the major leagues by becoming the best player at his position in his league. He has an .821 OPS with 22 hits and four home runs in 18 games.
As for the rest of the team, their high-strikeout, high-power approach is paying off. They lead the league in strikeouts by more than 100, but they are also the most powerful team in the majors with 107 home runs. They are also in the top 11 in wRC+ and wOBA, according to FanGraphs.
On the pitching side, the rotation has not been great, but there is a real ace in Dallas Keuchel (2.17 ERA). The bullpen has truly been great with a 2.62 ERA, 9.54 strikeouts per nine, an 81.9 percent strand rate and a 0.97 WHIP, which would be the lowest qualified mark in the game's history.
The Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners and Oakland A's were expected to be fighting for the top spot in the division, but the stunning Astros have changed the landscape while speeding up their competitive clock.
This team is for real, and it will continue showing it over the next few months.
National League West: Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Dodgers have dealt with as many injuries as the St. Louis Cardinals, but theirs have probably been more meaningful, as they've been without two-fifths of their rotation nearly all season—Hyun-Jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy—and who was supposed to be their best offensive player, Yasiel Puig, for all but 28 games.
They still are hanging on at the top of their division, and it is highly unlikely they let the non-waiver trade deadline pass without improving the rotation and possibly even the bullpen. If they do land someone like Johnny Cueto or Scott Kazmir, it could be enough for them to run away with the division.
The San Francisco Giants are a serious threat, and they are getting back Matt Cain and Jake Peavy soon. Those additions could be meaningful in this race, but as long as Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and whoever they bring in before the deadline perform up to current or expected standards, the Dodgers will have too much pitching and offense for the Giants to catch them.
Los Angeles' lineup leads the league with a 15.3 FanGraphs WAR, 115 wRC+, .334 wOBA and .179 ISO. Those numbers are great indicators that the Dodgers offense has been powerful and deep.
As long as it stays relatively healthy, Los Angeles will walk away with a third consecutive division title.
American League Wild Cards: Toronto Blue Jays and Oakland A’s
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Yeah, that's right. The Jays and the A's.
The Blue Jays have one of the worst rotations in the league. It is not great at preventing runs or striking out hitters, and it tends to give up homers. Absolutely nothing about it says "postseason contender."
But the team's run differential does. It is a pretty incredible plus-91, the best in the majors. Based partly on that, Bill James' Pythagorean record predictor says the Jays should be 17 games above .500, while Fangraphs' BaseRuns says they should be 13 games above. Currently they are five above .500, and their pitching is the reason why.
Clearly that means the offense is a force, but the Jays have gone all-in this season, so they might as well make a huge splash in the pitching trade market over the next month.
As for the A's, they have been a huge disappointment this year, but they have won 11 of their last 16 games. That stretch is more evident of who the A's are than their 34-42 record, which is evident by their plus-43 run differential, which is tied with the Pirates for the second-best mark of any non-division leader in the majors after the Blue Jays.
The A's currently sit 6.5 games out of a Wild Card spot and nine games out in their division, but as long as they don't have a clearance sale at the trade deadline, they have what it takes to make a run to capture one of the play-in spots.
National League Wild Cards: San Francisco Giants and Pittsburg Pirates
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This will be an odd-year anomaly for the Giants as they'll actually make the playoffs in a year that ends with an odd number. And the Pirates will pull out their third consecutive Wild Card berth after missing the postseason for 20 consecutive seasons.
The Giants have been a solid offensive club despite having Hunter Pence for only 18 games this season. He is still on the DL with a wrist injury, and Nori Aoki and his .317/.383/.768 slash line have joined him with a fractured fibula.
Missing those two will damage the lineup, but what the Giants miss in offense they can possibly gain on the pitching side as Matt Cain and Jake Peavy could return from their DL stints next week. If they are effective, it will give the Giants the best rotation of any of the other Wild Card contenders.
The Pirates have a pretty solid rotation, too. It is fourth in the league in FanGraphs WAR and second in the league behind the Washington Nationals with a 3.22 FIP.
They lack a bit offensively, but Andrew McCutchen, Francisco Cervelli and Josh Harrison have hit their stride in the last month. Assuming that continues, their plus-43 run differential, which is third-best in the league behind the Cardinals and Dodgers, will grow, as will their chances to capture another Wild Card berth.
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