NFL Week One Preview, Picks, and Covers

Thursday night, the Tennessee Titans travel to Pittsburgh to play the defending Super Bowl Champion Steelers. That's right, the 2009 season is set to begin.

Each week, I will bring you my predictions on who will win, who will lose, and how I think each game will go against the point spread.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-6)

Tennessee will look for redemption from being the top seed in the AFC last year, and being knocked out of the playoffs, while the Steelers who lost to Tennessee in Week 15 went on to win the Super Bowl.

The Titans strength is their running game, while the Steelers strength is their defense. Ben Roethlisberger will expose the weakness in the Titans secondary, while the Titans will not rush for over 100 yards.

Steelers win and cover 27-14.

Miami at Atlanta (-4)

The two Cinderellas of the 2008 season meet to kick off 2009.  The Falcons acquisition of Tony Gonzalez from the Kansas City Chiefs will help the maturation process of Matt Ryan.

Falcons win, but do not cover 24-21.

Philadelphia (-1.5) at Carolina

Philadelphia comes into Carolina without their biggest acquisition of the offseason: Michael Vick.  What they do bring to town is one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

The Panthers were not able to improve their roster much with almost $17 million dollars committed to defensive end Julius Peppers.

I am not sure how Vegas only has the Eagles favored to win by 1.5 points, but I think it is going to be a lot worse than that.

Eagles win and cover 31-10.

Denver at Cincinnati(-4.5)

The Hard Knocks Cincinnati Bengals return Carson Palmer to an offense that will once again be one of the most potent in the AFC.  With the 12th ranked defense in 2008, Cincinnati looks to make a push into the playoffs.

The Denver Broncos, who were one win from the playoffs in 2008, fired their coach, traded their quarterback, and their top receiver does not want to play for them. Plus the defense is one of the weakest in football, this is not going to be a pretty game.

Cincinnati wins and covers 27-3

Minnesota (-4) at Cleveland

The Minnesota Vikings are a popular pick now that they have a quarterback that can actually throw accurate passes. They have one of the most dominant defenses in the NFL, and one of the best running games to go along with it.

Eric Mangini has not even announced who the starting quarterback is going to be Sunday. The defense is a long way from average, and even though the Browns offensive line is improving, the rest of the team has a long way to go.

Minnesota wins and covers 34-13

New York Jets at Houston (-4.5)

Mark Sanchez gets his first professional start against an up and coming defense in the NFL.

The Jets still need some help at the receiver position, but the running game should keep the game close.

Dunta Robinson returns to a defense that is ready to become one the best in the AFC. Mario Williams will make Mark Sanchez have a bad day, but Matt Schaub still has work to do if he is going to lead the Texans to the playoffs.

Texans win, but do not cover 20-17.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-7)

As long as Peyton Manning is your quarterback, your team is going to put points on the board. Bob Sanders is off the PUP list, and should start the season somewhat healthy.

Jack Del Rio is in the hot seat, and Maurice Jones-Drew is banged up.

Indy wins big and covers 31-7.

Detroit at New Orleans (-13)

Matthew Stafford will get his first start against one of the worst defenses in football.  I look for Stafford to start strong, but trying to out pace Drew Brees is an exercise in futility.

The Lions defense is not know to be a strong unit, so expect the Saints offense to put up a lot of yards, and points.

Saints win and cover 37-17.

Kansas City at Baltimore (-13)

The Chiefs take the field without the possibility of having their $60 million quarterback, Matt Cassel, under center.

Joe Flacco and the Ravens are going to keep the Chiefs from scoring a lot of points, but don't look for the Ravens to light up the scoreboard.

Ravens win, but do not cover 21-10.

Dallas (-6) at Tampa Bay

Tony Romo has to start the season strong after Jerry Jones released Terrell Owens in the offseason so that Romo could become the leader.

The Buccaneers start Byron Leftwich, who did great as a backup on the Steelers last year. Tampa has nowhere near the weapons the Steelers did last year, so don't expect tons of points from the Bucs.

Dallas wins and covers 24-10

San Francisco at Arizona (-6.5)

Though the 49ers defense has gotten better, Mike Singletary is not a miracle worker. There is still no one to throw the ball, and with rookie Michael Crabtree still not under contract, no one to throw the ball to.

The Cardinals defense has gotten better, but their strength is still Kurt Warner passing the ball to Fitzgerald and Bolden.

Arizona wins and covers 27-10.

Washington at New York Giants (-6.5)

Eli Manning will get to show everyone that last year's end of season letdown was not the result of Plaxico Burress shooting himself in the leg. After signing a contract that makes him the highest paid player in the NFL, he has to show he is worth the money.

Washington lost out on the Jay Cutler sweepstakes, and Jason Campbell is in his contract year. The biggest weakness of the Redskins was their defensive line, but Albert Haynesworth and first round pick Brian Orakpo were brought in to make it better.

Washington wins 24-20.

Chicago at Green Bay (-3.5)

The oldest rivalry in the NFL starts with Week One.

The Packers are transitioning to the base 3-4 defense, so it may take some time before they are efficient at running it.

Jay Cutler whined his way out of Denver, and leads the Bears as the first "franchise" quarterback since Jim McMahon.

Chicago wins 21-17.

Monday Night Doubleheader

Buffalo at New England (-11)

Tom Brady returns with a chip on his shoulder. After being knocked out of the 2008 season less than one half into it, Brady wants to continue where he left off in 2007.

Rodney Harrison, Richard Seymour and Teddy Bruschi are all gone, so the question is, who will step up and be the leader of this defense?

Will the TO experience work for the Bills?  Will Trent Edwards finally be the quarterback that TO was always looking for? Will Dick Jauron keep his job?

I doubt it.

Patriots win and cover 37-10.

San Diego (-9.5) at Oakland

After winning the AFC West in 2008, with an 8-8 record, the Chargers believe that now Jay Cutler is gone from the Chargers, the West is theirs for the taking. Now that Shawne Merriman could be in trouble with the league, the problems have already started for the Bolts.

The Raiders are looking to turn the franchises fortunes around, and they need to start the season off in 2009 against the Chargers as they ended the 2008 season against the Tampa Buccaneers.  They have the weapons, but will Tom Cable be able to bring the team together?

Oakland beats the Chargers 17-14.

All point spreads are as of Tuesday, Midnight from Vegas.com.  I am not saying anyone should bet on any of these games, and if you use my picks and lose money, it is not my fault. 

Of course, if you win, remember, it is always nice to share!