Cleveland Browns 2009 Outlook: I Can Only Go By What I See

"I can only go by what I see." With those words, Bill Belichick benched fan favorite Bernie Kosar in 1993 in favor of Vinny Testaverde before ultimately releasing Kosar.

With those words, I approach the 2009 Cleveland Browns season.

First, I don't see the 2-14 record Peter King of Sports Illustrated predicted for this team. But I'm also not delusional. I don't see the Browns going 13-3 with a certain Notre Dame alumnus leading them deep into the playoffs.

Both scenarios are just not gonna happen. Here's how I think things will go, based on what I've seen.

OK, let's start with the good stuff:

Special Teams:

New coaching, new approach plus Josh Cribbs should have the Browns' special teams ranked among the NFL's elite units. Phil Dawson remains a solid kicker, and Dave Zastudil is well above average as a punter. Barring injury, no problems here.

 

Offensive Line:

You build from the trenches, and the left side of the offensive line looks solid. The right side, not so much.

But there is more depth on the line overall, and "addition by subtraction" is no more evident than releasing Kevin Shaffer, also known as the Human Parking Cone, from the squad.

 

Intangibles:

The schedule is much easier than the one the Browns faced in 2008, and regardless of the record, expect a disciplined team with fewer exasperating penalties and much better clock management.

New coaching also brings new hope on the lakefront, and the Browns could get a "dead cat bounce" from the regime change alone.

With low expectations, the Browns could sneak up on a few opponents and pull some upsets. Nonetheless, only a few of the long-term pieces are in place.

 

Now, the stuff that's improved:

Wide Receiver:

This is Braylon Edwards' contract year, and visions of briefcases full of Benjamins can be a miracle cure for the dropsies.

In the debacle that was the 2008 campaign, the absence of Joe Jurevicius was another key component in that epic fail.

Mike Furrey appears capable of filling Jurevicius' old "money on third down" role, and in the second receiver spot, we might be tracking the Who's "The Kids Are All Right" by the end of the season.

Josh Cribbs might fill the bill in part, with Mohamed Massaquoi delivering more of the goods.

Brian Robiskie, despite his high football IQ, might not be ready to make an impact in 2009, but Mo, Robo, Cribbs and Furrey represent a significant upgrade over the likes of Syndric Steptoe.

No mention of Donté Stallworth is, again, addition by subtraction.

 

Defensive Line

The key here is health. The Browns' DL was banged up last season, and its performance was not helped by Romeo Crennel's passive, read-and react 3-4.

Robaire Smith, recovered from an Achilles injury, should make a major difference at defensive end, and the bright spot of the preseason may have been Ahtyba Rubin, who showed he can handle the nose tackle position if need be.

Shaun Rogers, aka Big Baby, is enough to make grown men who play center cry, and if healthy with better talent around him, he should be an All-Pro level force.

 

Linebacker:

Gone is Willie McGinest, who coaches could time with a sun dial. Kamerion Wimbley showed flashes of his 2006 form in preseason, and D'Qwell Jackson remains solid. Alex Hall also showed potential in exhibition games,

The biggest difference in this unit should be the coaching, as Rob Ryan will bring a more aggressive version of the 3-4 to the lakefront.

Also, look out for Kaluka Maiava. Who? Fourth-round pick from USC in 2009 who I expect to work his way up from special teams and blossom into an impact ILB in a few years.

 

Secondary:

Brandon McDonald and Eric Wright at the corners will not make Browns fans forget Hanford Dixon and Frank Minnifield, but with another year of seasoning plus playing behind a front seven with greater QB pressure, they should be serviceable.

The ugly part of this is the lack of depth at safety, and the back end of Cleveland's defense could again be porous. Browns fans can hope Mike Adams and Abram Elam are passable, with Adams having more upside.

Still, I'm calling the unit improved by virtue of coaching changes.

 

The stuff we don't know about:

Quarterback:

Will Brady Quinn be the next Joe Montana or the next Rick Mirer? Or maybe and more likely, another Kelly Holcomb?

Browns fans, once some of the NFL's most knowledgeable, are showing unwarranted blind loyalty to the point of myopia on the quarterback issue.

For example, if you're a conservative, the level of discourse on the QB position could be likened to growing up reading William F. Buckley and being subjected to Fox News in adulthood.

While agreement is still possible, you wish people of higher caliber were around to make a more eloquent case for your position.

If Quinn continues to eschew the long ball for shorter and safer throws, defenses will stack eight men "in the box," and it could be a long season on the south shore of Lake Erie.

Derek Anderson, despite his higher likelihood of tossing picks, forces defenses to respect the long ball, which opens up the running game.

Whoever the starter is, Browns fans should just root for the laundry anyway.

If Quinn gets the nod and flames out, Peter King's prediction becomes plausible. Derek, stick around. I think we'll need you. Ken Dorsey, don't call us. We'll call you.

 

That which could make for a long season:

Running Back:

In NFL running back years, 30 is the new 50, especially for a workhorse like Jamal Lewis. Instead of his traditional burst into the hole, Lewis has developed a tentative stutter step which led me to comment, "Is this football, or Dancing With The Stars?"

No less than Jim Brown has cited that hesitancy as a sure sign that a running back is past his prime.

James Davis could prove to be a complete sixth-round steal, but Jerome Harrison has been MIA the entire pre-season. Lawrence Vickers is a solid blocker at fullback, but no real running threat.

Unless Lewis can turn from Dancer into Dasher again, Browns fans could have visions of a high draft choice dancing in their heads by Christmas.

 

Tight End:

Yes, many fans miss the Soldier (AKA Kellen Winslow), but his tour of duty in Cleveland aged him too fast. At this position, there's not much on the plate.

Steve Heiden is a solid journeyman, but he's long in the tooth. Robert Royal is the type of player that would get a "C" at best at his position.

Who else is left? What was the name of that "can't-miss" prospect Phil Savage drafted? Is he still around? Oh yeah, Martin Rucker, who has given Browns fans nothing to see here, so move along.

Go root for Buffalo, Phil.

 

Prediction:

7-9 overall, with a 2-4 record in the AFC North, good for third place behind Pittsburgh and Baltimore.