US Open 2015: Separating Contenders from Pretenders Before Sunday's Final Round
It's a Sunday at the U.S. Open, which already means chaos by definition. But when that Sunday arrives with a four-way tie atop the leaderboard, everything is ratcheted up.
It hasn't happened at this country's national championship since Oakmont in 1973, when Johnny Miller emerged from the gaggle with a trophy-clinching 63.
This time around, the contenders are both predictable and not.
Shared leaders Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson and Jason Day all entered the week ranked among the world's top-10 golfers, while South African interloper Branden Grace is the outlier at No. 40.
Fox's Joe Buck closed Saturday's broadcast with the million-dollar setup: "The question tomorrow," he said, "is who will persevere?"
Pretenders and contenders are sure to be revealed over the final 18 holes, which should provide for a scintillating day of golf at Chambers Bay. Read on to find out who's likely to come in on either side of the line, and feel free to provide some suggestions of your own in the comments section.
All quotes are from television broadcasts unless otherwise noted.
J.B. Holmes
1 of 8
If it came down to a single shot Saturday, or a compelling pre-event backstory, it'd be J.B. Holmes' Open to lose.
He drove his ball into a greenside bunker alongside the 372-yard, par-four 16th hole, then proceeded to scoop it out and onto a hill to the right side of the hole before watching it roll back down the slope and directly into the cup for an eagle. The gem got him to two under par at the time, before he gave a stroke back with a bogey at No. 17.
Oh, and by the way, he underwent a pair of brain surgeries in 2011, initially after being diagnosed with a structural defect in his cerebellum and again after he developed an allergy to a plate inserted at the base of his skull.
All that aside, though, the majors have never been a playpen for the Kentucky native, as evidenced by a career-best tie for 14th at the British Open five years ago and three missed cuts since. When push comes to shove Sunday, he'll fall off the pace.
Verdict: Pretender
Shane Lowry
2 of 8
This week's definition of unspectacular steadiness, even in the face of sometimes untenable conditions at Chambers Bay, is best illustrated by Irishman Shane Lowry.
The 28-year-old opened the tournament Thursday with four birdies and three bogeys for a one-under 69. He has since posted consecutive scores of even-par 70 even as many other players climbed prodigiously and plummeted just as quickly.
He was similarly steady in unseemly surroundings at the British Open en route to a tie for ninth place last year, which provides at least an indication that he'll be able to keep it together for the duration in the Pacific Northwest.
If the players above him on the leaderboard are stricken, he has a chance to win by attrition.
Verdict: Contender
Cameron Smith
3 of 8
A handy litmus test for separating the hardcore golf fans from the casual major tournament drop-ins this week would be to ask who before Saturday had ever heard of Cameron Smith.
The 21-year-old Australian was even par through 36 holes and came in with a one-under 69 Saturday to put himself in an unlikely tie for fifth place heading into the final-round pressure-cooker.
And no, even he doesn't claim to have seen it coming.
"No," he said when asked at a post-round media gathering Saturday, "not really."
Smith missed the cut in three of the six previous events he played in this year, and his best finish on U.S. soil was a tie for 15th at the RBC Heritage.
He could keep the surprises coming Sunday, but it's not likely.
Verdict: Pretender
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Louis Oosthuizen
4 of 8
By the time Thursday's opening round ended, it looked as if Louis Oosthuizen couldn't get away from Chambers Bay fast enough. And the seven-over 77 he shot made it seem like a missed cut was imminent.
Until, that is, it wasn't.
The South African escaped the curses that foiled playing partners Tiger Woods and Rickie Fowler (both of whom did miss the cut) and fired a four-under 66 in the second round, then repeated the feat Saturday to make himself one of the most unlikely dark horses in recent major tournament memory.
"As poorly as he played, and look, now he's only three shots off the lead," Fox analyst Greg Norman said at the end of Saturday's round. "It's amazing."
And now that he's gotten to this point, history shows he can close the deal.
He was a winner by seven shots at the 2010 British Open after entering the final round with a four-stroke advantage, and he's also managed major top-10s at the 2011 U.S. Open (tied for ninth) and the 2012 Masters (second).
Verdict: Contender
Branden Grace
5 of 8
Remember the old Sesame Street song that went "one of these things is not like the others, one of these things just doesn't belong"? If so, don't be surprised if you're humming it when Branden Grace tees off alongside Jordan Spieth on Sunday.
The 40th-ranked player in the world managed to work his way into a four-way tie for the lead in which he's joined by three players ranked second, seventh and 10th.
His even-par 70 followed pre-weekend rounds of 69 and 67, and earned a rave review from fellow South African Ernie Els, who knows a thing or two about winning majors.
"We've played a couple practice rounds together, and I said from the start that out of all the players from South Africa, he's got the best shot," Els said on Fox's Saturday broadcast. "He's got the all-around game for this place."
Good enough for the Big Easy...good enough for us.
Verdict: Contender
Jordan Spieth
6 of 8
He won the 2015 Masters, he came into the U.S. Open as the second betting favorite behind Rory McIlroy, and then he entered the weekend after rounds of 68 and 67 gave him a share of the 36-hole lead.
But somehow, it felt like a letdown for the Jordan Spieth aura.
The 21-year-old looked ready to lap the field again after birdieing the second and third holes Saturday, but four bogeys in the subsequent six holes—and a pedestrian 35 on the back nine—left him in contact with the commoners. In fact, the one-over 36 on the front nine was his first over-par nine holes in a major this season.
"All in all, I was just a little bit off," he told Fox after the round. "You just have to take your medicine sometimes."
Still, when it comes to understanding the final-round pressures, it's better to be a reigning Masters champion than not. And if he closes the deal, he'll be the sixth player to win both the Masters and the U.S. Open in the same year.
"I think about that here and there," he conceded, "but once I get on the course, I'll just be focused on the round and how to separate from the pack."
Verdict: Contender
Dustin Johnson
7 of 8
Fox Sports 1 analyst Joe Ogilvie called it for Dustin Johnson from the beginning.
"He's got to look at this course like 'This is my time, I'm prepared. I'm ready to go,'" Ogilvie said on Thursday's pre-tournament broadcast. "He has everything that he needs to be No. 1 in the world. He's got what it takes to win multiple majors."
The father of Wayne Gretzky's grandson went out and shot 65 after that high praise, stayed in the running with a 71 on day two and continued to have some of the good and the bad Saturday.
He got to six under par and led after a birdie on No. 9—his fourth on the front nine—then proceeded to go bogey, birdie, double bogey on 11, 12 and 13 to drop back to minus-four. Five pars to finish the round kept him in a share of the lead coming into Sunday, and it gave the player known as DJ another chance to make Ogilvie look prescient.
"The space between his ears is the territory that he most has to conquer," Ogilvie said. "He's a guy whose matured both on and off the golf course. Having a kid, for a guy like Dustin, is very maturing."
What better script, then, than a win on Father's Day?
Verdict: Contender
Jason Day
8 of 8
He collapsed on the course with vertigo symptoms after playing his final hole in Friday's round, then, coming into Saturday, didn't know if he'd be able to make it through the entire round.
So, naturally, Jason Day birdied Nos. 17 and 18 to shoot 68 for the second time in three days and lock up the sentimental 72-hole trophy before the 54-hole scores were even posted.
He chose not to make an appearance at the post-round media gathering, but his caddie, Colin Swatton, came on with Fox to present the same viewpoint that nearly everyone else now shares.
"A lot of people would have spent the time in the bedroom with the drapes drawn," Swatton said. "He's dug deeper than he's ever dug before. It's just real, real impressive." Fox's Joe Buck followed, suggesting "People will remember what Jason Day did today, whether he wins or not."
The reality is, he probably won't.
Though the Saturday effort was Herculean and historic, it'd be hard for a guy looking as bad as Day did after the round to summon the strength to do it twice. He'll have his moments and he'll earn his applause, but the bolt of lightning he showed from holes 37 to 54 will be absent in the homestretch.
Verdict: Pretender
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