Who Is New England Patriots' Most Underrated Playmaker?

Every New England Patriots fan knows about the team's difficulty with drafting wide receivers, but the free-agent route hasn't served the organization any better. Apart from solid depth contributors David Patten and Jabar Gaffney, the Pats have largely whiffed on a bevy of one-year wonders like Brandon Lloyd, Chad Johnson and Reche Caldwell.

So when Brandon LaFell inked a modest three-year, $9 million deal last offseason, it didn't elicit much more than a shrug around most corners. Former second-rounder Aaron Dobson was the favorite to start at split end, and given Dobson's promising rookie year glimpses and hefty draft investment, most were probably rooting for him to take the second-year leap forward.

Of course, injuries sabotaged Dobson's sophomore year, opening the door for LaFell to fill the "X" receiver void. After earning a full-time starter's role in Week 4, LaFell became a fixture in New England's lineup, totaling career-highs in receptions (74), receiving yards (953) and touchdown receptions (7). 

Now, it's hard to imagine the Patriots passing game next season without LaFell. While we shouldn't hyperbolize too much—LaFell certainly isn't Randy Moss circa 2007—there are elements in his game that are unique to the Patriots' receiving corps. Reviewing his 2014 season, let's illustrate exactly why LaFell was a critical cog in the Pats offense, while also setting potential expectations for 2015.

Versatility

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

OK, so I've already misled you a bit by labeling LaFell an "X" receiver. Though he possesses split-end size at 6'3" and 210 pounds, LaFell wasn't really that different from Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola in terms of route diversity last season. Though he was typically tethered to the line of scrimmage and rarely went in motion, LaFell lined up in various spots on both the right and left sides and ran a wide variety of routes (more on this in a second).

This got me thinking about how different New England LaFell was from the Carolina Panthers version.  During his final season in Charlotte, LaFell ran a whopping 63.0 percent of his routes from the slot. Last year, LaFell ran only 16.6 percent of his routes from the slot during the regular season, though that number increased to 21.9 percent during the Patriots' three postseason games.

With that vast discrepancy in pre-snap alignment, one would expect LaFell's route distribution to differ significantly from 2013 to 2014. While I don't have access to his complete route-running log, I went back and took a representative sample, watching New England's three postseason games and comparing them to Weeks 12-14 of the 2013 season, the three-week stretch when Carolina attempted its greatest number of passes. 

By Sterling Xie

This obviously isn't gospel, but there are some interesting trends here. As one would expect, LaFell ran a lot more out-breaking routes during his slot-heavy Carolina time, particularly corner and flat routes. In general, the Panthers appeared focused on running routes that highlighted LaFell's size advantage. Knowing how Carolina has constructed its roster with a preference for towering receivers like Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess, this seems predictable in hindsight.

Source: NFL Game Rewind

Source: NFL Game Rewind

However, as we continue to see with the Panthers today, that strategy has its advantages and drawbacks. The first screenshot worked out beautifully for Carolina, as the safety's attempts to split twin go routes left Ted Ginn wide open for a touchdown. Conversely, the second seam route ended in an interception due to an underthrow. In fact, in the three games I watched, Cam Newton threw three picks while targeting LaFell.

When LaFell migrated north to Foxborough, the emphasis shifted from his size to his quickness. ESPN's Field Yates wrote a brief scouting report on LaFell at the time of his signing, and his words belie the receiver's deceptive agility for a player of his size:

"

He can torque his body to bend and make difficult catches, and has very good field awareness. He ran what looked like reliable routes in Carolina and is a pluck-and-snatch catcher, not allowing the ball to come to his body. His unique length allows him to be an effective blocker on the edge and down the field. He has enough suddenness to break off his routes against off-man coverage.

"

Indeed, LaFell is far from a prototypical split end, as he doesn't possess the deep speed and leaping ability of a Calvin Johnson or Julio Jones type. Though he ran a ton of straight 9-routes, he was rarely targeted or successful on any of those plays, apart from the memorable game-winning touchdown against the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round. It's also important to note that, despite the low percentage of slot routes, LaFell often lined up in a reduced split (closer to the ball), so the adjustment wasn't necessarily as drastic as the percentages would imply.

LaFell's most successful usage came on short and intermediate route combinations and option reads, both staples in the New England passing game. This utilization also led to LaFell's most valuable contribution in 2014, one that flew quietly under the radar.

The Drive Starter

If you watched enough of the Patriots last season, you might've begun to sniff out one of their favorite first-down plays: a play-action pass to LaFell on either a dig, comeback or curl route. The play action held the linebackers and safeties in their pre-snap spots, allowing LaFell to use his footwork to create room on an island against a perimeter corner:

Source: NFL Game Rewind

Source: NFL Game Rewind

Including the playoffs, LaFell led the team with 44 first-down receptions while also tying Rob Gronkowski with a team-high total of 64 first-down targets. Among all players, only Demaryius Thomas and Antonio Brown accrued more first-down catches, and LaFell's 68.8 percent catch rate ranked seventh among the 23 players with at least 50 first-down targets, per Pro-Football-Reference.com. 

That's a huge uptick from his previous rates in Carolina, which were already increasing annually. Even if we look at first-down stats on a percentage rather than raw basis, the Patriots clearly made a more concerted effort to utilize LaFell as a primary target:

Season	Targets	Receptions	% of Total Tgt.	% of Total Rec.
2014 (NE)	64	44	53.8%	59.5%
2013	36	23	42.4%	46.9%
2012	29	17	38.2%	38.6%
2011	18	9	32.1%	23.7%
2010	19	8	24.7%	21.1%

LaFell's first-down value also extends beyond his receiving ability. First-and-10 remains one of the few havens for the running game, which lags increasingly farther behind the passing game in terms of efficiency. Nevertheless, teams still ran the ball on 51.9 percent of first downs last year, even though research has proven that strategy is suboptimal.

Game theory aside, LaFell does provide underrated value as a run blocker. This is actually the greatest payoff of his size, as LaFell demonstrates good strength and balance to seal off smaller cornerbacks. As the second screenshot illustrates, the Panthers even utilized him in the backfield as an H-back on some designed quarterback runs:

Source: NFL Game Rewind

Source: NFL Game Rewind

Given that New England is also a screen-heavy team, this remained a useful trait for LaFell last season. The Patriots became much more of a gap-blocking, between-the-tackles running team in 2014, though, so barring a read-option craze under Jimmy Garoppolo, LaFell's run blocking won't be on display much in 2015. Still, it's a useful trait to have in his back pocket.

LaFell's first-down efficacy is worth highlighting not merely for trivia, but also in thinking about how the Pats can keep Garoppolo comfortable if he needs to start during a Tom Brady suspension. The Brady-led passing offense used LaFell to establish its rhythm at the start of myriad drives. With the callow Garoppolo under center, generating those same high-percentage completions should be vital toward keeping the Pats offense humming.

LaFell certainly isn't the first person most will consider when ranking the people most important to Garoppolo's success. However, if LaFell can continue winning short-to-intermediate one-on-ones and help kick-start offensive drives, that would represent an important step in minimizing Garoppolo's bust potential this season.

What Will the Encore Bring?

If first impressions are everything, then LaFell could have a long-term home with the Patriots. Most of New England's free-agent wide receiver busts have flamed out in the first year, so LaFell has made it past the toughest hurdle.

Astoundingly, we have no real track record of what to expect from a player like LaFell. In the era of head coach Bill Belichick, the Pats have had just four receivers who joined the team in free agency and stuck around for a second season. This excludes bit players who accrued fewer than 10 receptions during their Patriots tenures (sorry, Kelley Washington and Isaiah Stanback) as well as players already on the team who simply re-signed as free agents:

Player	Year 1 Rec./Yds./TD	Year 2 Rec./Yds./TD
David Patten	51 / 749 / 4	61 / 824 / 5
Jabar Gaffney	11 / 142 / 1	36 / 449 / 5
Danny Amendola	54 / 633 / 2	27 / 200 / 1
Sam Aiken	8 / 101 / 0	20 / 326 / 2

In fairness, the Pats have had players arrive via trade and thrive, most notably Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Deion Branch (during his second New England stint). It's certainly not impossible for veteran receivers to sustain success in the Patriots' system, even if the track record is fairly poor.

LaFell won't be handed his starting job in 2015, though, especially with the disappointing Dobson making a big push to keep his roster spot. Reports surrounding the third-year pro have been positive so far, though all optimism comes with heaping mounds of salt at this time of year. More relevant is the news that LaFell remains in a walking boot as he recovers from a left foot injury that nagged him through the latter half of the 2014 season.

It'll take more than a minicamp absence for LaFell to lose his job, but given that neither he nor Dobson has an established rapport with Garoppolo, it's not impossible to envision the youngster catching on with the presumptive Week 1 starter and stealing snaps from LaFell. After all, Dobson has had an opportunity to work on his game this offseason, while LaFell has largely dealt with an offseason of rehab.

Still, even if LaFell only sustains his 2014 form, he'll provide the steady hands and route-running diversity that Dobson has yet to exhibit in his career. Entering his sixth season, LaFell is not going to turn into the type of dynamic threat that anchors a passing game. But his skill set dovetailed perfectly with New England's system last season, and Brady's apparent trust should solidify LaFell's status as an integral cog in the 2015 offense.

Sterling Xie is a Patriots Featured Columnist whose work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and Advanced Football Analytics. Sterling is a co-author of the Football Outsiders Almanac 2015, coming out mid-July.