US Open Favorites 2015: Projecting Daily Score Totals for Golf's Top Stars
The 2015 U.S. Open at Chambers Bay is set to present a daunting challenge to this year's field—and that doesn't exclude favorites like Phil Mickelson, Jordan Spieth or Rory McIlroy.
While recent Opens—think Merion in 2013—have been played at historic courses renowned for tight fairways that have precipitated tougher scoring conditions, this year's tournament will have a different feel.
As the setting shifts to the Pacific Northwest for the first time, golf's most renowned talents will need to embrace a links-style course that typically isn't associated with the national championship.
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Instead of trying to navigate narrow windows off the tee, players will face their most difficult tests on the expansive greens Chambers Bay has to offer.
Course designer Jay Blasi shared his thoughts on how Chambers Bay fits in with other Open courses with Santa Cruz Sentinel's Jim Seimas:
"Traditionally, U.S. Opens are played on park-land golf courses; there’s lots of trees, narrow fairways and high rough. Chambers Bay will be the exact opposite. There's only one tree, the fairways are wide, and there is no rough. The greens will be fast and firm, though. The players will be able to putt from 50 yards off every green.
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As players prepare for a change of pace, here's a look at how the favorites could fare when things get under way at the par-70 spectacle.
Phil Mickelson
Mickelson is still chasing his first career U.S. Open victory, but if early odds and recent play are any indication, he is unquestionably a front-runner to take home this year's hardware.
According to Odds Shark, Mickelson heads to Chambers Bay with the third-best odds (16/1) of any player, trailing only Spieth and McIlroy.
Mickelson's been hot recently, too, especially on the major circuit.
He finished tied for second at The Masters with Justin Rose and notched an eight-under score that tied him for third at the FedEx St. Jude Classic last weekend. Lefty cranked out a final-round 65 to shoot up the leaderboard after tallying an even-par 70 on Saturday.
| Round 1 | 10:33 a.m. ET | 68 |
| Round 2 | 4:33 p.m. ET | 71 |
| Round 3 | TBD | 69 |
| Round 4 | TBD | 69 |
Now, entering the year's second major, Mickelson appears ready to put his pristine short game to work.
"It’s a special course in that there’s a lot of different ways to play shots to a lot of different pins," Mickelson said, according to Golf Digest's John Strege. "If you play the highest percentage shot it’s not a hard golf course. But if you don’t know what that shot is and you play the wrong one, there’s a lot of penalty there."
Currently ranked No. 7 overall in putts per round (27.95) and ninth in one-putt percentage (43.78), Mickelson's deft touch around the green should pay dividends as his peers struggle to read some massive putting surfaces.
Jordan Spieth
After burning past his opponents at The Masters and capturing a green jacket, Jordan Spieth's play at Chambers Bay will be tracked intently.
Recently, Spieth has stayed relatively poised, finishing second at Crowne Plaza and third at the Memorial with a 30th-place finish at the Byron Nelson Championship sandwiched between those impressive results.
Now, Spieth will look to go back-to-back on the major circuit and prolong what's been a fruitful season thus far.
| Round 1 | 5: 17 p.m. ET | 69 |
| Round 2 | 11:17 a.m. ET | 67 |
| Round 3 | TBD | 68 |
| Round 4 | TBD | 69 |
At 8/1 odds, Spieth trots into the year's second major with serious momentum and a bit of extra confidence based on his caddie's background.
"While Chambers Bay will be a mystery to all but a handful of the players, Spieth does have an ace up his sleeve—his caddie, Michael Greller, worked at Chambers Bay before carrying Spieth's bag on the PGA Tour," AFP's Greg Heakes wrote (via Yahoo Sports).
And like the rest of his competition, Spieth is focused on executing close to the pin.
"I need a shot I can trust from the runoff areas," he said, per Yahoo Sports' Greg Heakes. "The greens are massive, so controlling your speed on these longer putts, you are not going to be able to feed it into a lot of these pins."
Considering the 21-year-old ranks first in scoring average (69.1) and tops in putting average (1.68), there's reason to believe his sensational run will continue.
Rory McIlroy
Unlike Spieth and Mickelson before him, McIlroy hasn't been particularly hot of late. While he did capture titles at the WGC-Cadillac Match Play and Wells Fargo Championships earlier in the spring, he proceeded to miss the cut at the Irish Open and BMW Championship in May.
However, the Irishman's raw numbers indicate he should be a force to be reckoned with on the links course. At present, McIlroy ranks No. 1 overall in ball striking, total driving and success rate when scrambling from the fringe.
| Round 1 | 11:28 a.m. ET | 69 |
| Round 2 | 5:28 p.m. ET | 70 |
| Round 3 | TBD | 67 |
| Round 4 | TBD | 68 |
On a course that will demand precision in all phases, it's no wonder McIlroy enters the weekend as the favorite at 7/1 odds.
"I feel a lot better coming into this tournament than I did going into the last two," McIlroy said, according to BBC Sport. "The two weeks off helped to refresh the mind a little bit. I had not played five weeks in a row for a long time."
And as the Guardian's Ewan Murray suggested, "Recent history is in McIlroy’s favour. Four of the past five U.S. Opens have been won by European players."
Scoring could prove to be volatile across the leaderboard as competitors attempt to figure out a mysterious new beast, but McIlroy is as safe a bet as any to come out and thrive on the links.
All odds courtesy of Odds Shark. All statistics courtesy of PGA.com.
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