U.S. Open Picks 2015: Dark-Horse Candidates to Win the U.S. Open Trophy
The PGA Tour's TV slogan, "These guys are good," is particularly applicable when majors arrive.
Though fans, media and others are enamored with the sport's biggest names—Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Tiger Woods, etc.—the reality is that there are dozens of players legitimately capable of stringing together four rounds this weekend at Chambers Bay and walking away with the U.S. Open trophy.
For precedent, look no farther than last year.
Though German-born Martin Kaymer had a pair of significant wins on his resume—the 2010 PGA Championship and the 2014 Players Championship—upon arriving at Pinehurst last June, he was no better than a 40-to-1 betting prospect.
As it turned out, the then-29-year-old scorched the course with 65s on both Thursday and Friday, then coasted home to an eight-stroke win with rounds of 72 and 69 on the final two days.
Incidentally, the consensus pre-tournament favorite, McIlroy, finished tied for 23rd.
Given the depth of the field this time around, it's not hard to see a similar surprise in 2015.
For our purposes, we considered anyone tagged as 30-1 or higher to be a dark horse, though six of our eight suggestions are 50-1 or better and two are considered triple-digit shots going in.
Read on to see who stands a chance at winning the second major of 2015 and feel free to drop in a suggestion or two of your own in the comments thread.
Odds come courtesy of Odds Shark.
Jim Furyk (33-1)
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Last We Saw Jim Furyk: T5 at the Memorial Tournament
2014 U.S. Finish: T12
Best U.S. Open Finish: 1, 2003
He's a former U.S. Open winner and enters this year's event ranked third in the world, but it's still difficult to fathom 45-year-old Jim Furyk as a favorite on the level of Rory McIlroy or Jordan Spieth.
And having labeled him a 33-to-1 proposition, the odds-makers clearly agree.
Nevertheless, there's something about the way the old man has looked while grinding out four top-10 finishes this season—including a win at the RBC Heritage—that gives the feeling he'll have a chance.
He tied for fifth at the Memorial Tournament in his last pre-Chambers Bay tune-up two weeks ago, was in the top 15 in all four majors last season and has been a top-five commodity in six previous U.S Opens.
If track record determines your selections, Furyk has got to be a consideration.
Hideki Matsuyama (33-1)
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Last We Saw Hideki Matsuyama: T5 at the Memorial Tournament
2014 U.S. Open Finish: T35
Best U.S. Open Finish: T10, 2013
When you hear chatter about the world's top 20-something players, it's typically centered on Rory McIlroy (26) and Jordan Spieth (21). But by the time Sunday night arrives, that could change.
At 23, Hideki Matsuyama has finished in the top 10 in three of the 10 majors he's played—including fifth at this year's Masters—and could be primed for a Far East breakthrough in Washington.
He's been a fixture near the top of the leaderboard away from Augusta, too, including five other top-five finishes and seven more in the top 10 among the 16 PGA Tour events he's played this season.
Like Jim Furyk, he comes in this week after a fifth-place tie at the Memorial Tournament, and, according to manager/translator Bob Turner, he won't be satisfied with near misses for too much longer.
"He wants to be the best golfer he can be," Turner told ESPN.com. "He's passionate about it. On his days off, he plays golf. He's not satisfied with where he's at right now."
Billy Horschel (50-1)
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Last We Saw Billy Horschel: T8 at the FedEx St. Jude Classic
2014 U.S. Open Finish: T23
Best U.S. Open Finish: T4, 2013
Even before he began showing up in PGA Tour commercials and walked away with the 2014 FedEx Cup, Billy Horschel flashed some major potential.
He shared the 36-hole lead with Phil Mickelson at the 2013 U.S. Open at Merion, joining Lefty as the only other player under par after hitting all 18 greens in regulation in the second round.
He went on to shoot 72 and 74 on the weekend to end up tied for fourth in his first professional major but has since learned to close the deal. Back-to-back wins at the BMW Championship and the Tour Championship last September gave the Floridian leaderboard-topping street cred, and he's incrementally improved his finishes in each of six events this season since missing the cut at the Masters in April.
Horschel shot 65 in the final round at the FedEx St. Jude Classic, finishing in a four-way tie for eighth, and lauded the TPC Southwind course in Memphis as an ideal—if not well-known—set-up for this week.
"It’s one of the top five golf courses (on Tour). But you don’t get the big names here because of the Open the week after,” he told the Memphis Daily News. "If they come here, they will realize how great of a golf course it is, how challenging of a course it is, and how it prepares you for the U.S. Open."
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Brooks Koepka (50-1)
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Last We Saw Brooks Koepka: T3 at the FedEx St. Jude Classic
2014 U.S. Open Finish: T4
Best U.S. Open Finish: T4, 2014
If pre-U.S. Open momentum matters, Brooks Koepka is in a good place.
The 25-year-old was nine-under par after two rounds at the FedEx St. Jude Classic over the weekend, wound up in a five-way tie for third place and pronounced himself ready for this week's test.
Koepka was still winless on the PGA Tour when he tied for fourth at the 2014 U.S. Open, which earned him a full-time playing pass for this season. He broke through for his initial victory at the Waste Management Phoenix Open in February but hadn't found the top 10 again until his four days in Memphis.
"It was important to me," he said. "I needed a few more rounds to help to try to find the confidence, find my good play. I've been playing well, just don't feel like I'm getting the results. And I felt like I just needed another week to really figure it out, and it's nice to figure it out a little bit."
Kevin Kisner (80-1)
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Last We Saw Kevin Kisner: T8 at the Memorial Tournament
2014 U.S. Open Finish: Cut
Best U.S. Open Finish: Cut
If you'd never watched a PGA Tour event before April—or even if you had—there's a pretty good chance you'd never heard of Kevin Kisner.
But if you've watched any since, he's fast becoming a familiar commodity.
The 31-year-old ended the 2014 season at No. 236 in the Official World Golf Ranking, but he's since jumped no fewer than 179 positions, thanks to a two-month stretch that's yielded four top-10 finishes—including a pair of sudden-death losses to stars named Jim Furyk and Rickie Fowler.
He earned the spot at Chambers Bay thanks to that prodigious rise, and the cool demeanor he's shown while in the presence of high-profile foes suggests Chambers Bay won't be too big a stage.
"I know I can win," Kisner told USA Today. "I told (swing coach) John (Tillery) to give me the right stuff to get in position to win, because I'm pretty good when I'm in contention. If you've watched my career I've progressed. Each year I'm more comfortable and each year has gotten a little better. Now I'm in a place where I can win."
Kevin Na (80-1)
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Last We Saw Kevin Na: T13 at the Memorial Tournament
2014 U.S. Open Finish: T12
Best U.S. Open Finish: T12, 2014
At some point, consistency is bound to pay off for Kevin Na.
In a major way.
The 31-year-old native of South Korea has been a model of repetitive success in 2015, making the cut in 10 straight PGA Tour events since February and recording five top-10 finishes and two more in the top 20.
He missed the cut in his initial two appearances at the U.S. Open in 2010 and 2011 but stayed for the weekend and wound up tied for 29th in 2012, then jumped all the way to a tie for 12th last year after a back injury had caused him to miss the event in 2013.
His biggest hurdle this week? Overcoming his own self-doubt.
"When it comes to crunch time," Na told ESPN.com, "you've got to trust your stroke and just stay in the moment."
Charley Hoffman (125-1)
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Last We Saw Charley Hoffman: T2 at the AT&T Byron Nelson
2014 U.S. Open Finish: DNP
Best U.S. Open Finish: T45, 2011, 2013
The dude with rock-star hair may soon become the dude with rock-star game.
Though he'd been a pro since 2000 and had three PGA Tour wins, Charley Hoffman arrived at Augusta for the 2015 Masters with more questions about the locks he'd cut off than the shots he'd unleash.
Four rounds later, perceptions had changed.
The San Diego native went 67-68 through 36 holes to put himself into contention and stayed around long enough for a ninth-place tie; he has since posted three more top-20 finishes in five events.
His last pre-U.S. Open appearance resulted in a tie for second at the AT&T Byron Nelson after four blistering rounds of 69-65-64-65 and caught the eye of GolfChannel.com's Ryan Lavner.
"OK, so Charley Hoffman isn’t going to dazzle you, but the guy has played some of the best golf of his career this season," Lavner wrote in his Monday U.S. Open preview.
"The 38-year-old Californian has seven top-15s this season, and that includes (A) a ninth-place showing at the Masters, and (B) back-to-back top-10s in Texas, his most recent appearances. Hmmm."
Victor Dubuisson (150-1)
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Last We Saw Victor Dubuisson: MC at the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open
2014 U.S. Open Finish: T28
Best U.S. Open Finish: T28, 2014
Because four of the last five U.S. Open champions have come from beyond domestic borders, it's only natural to assume another international interloper will hoist hardware come Sunday.
And if that trend holds true, Victor Dubuisson is as good a candidate as any.
The 25-year-old Frenchman has been quietly raising his world profile for each of the last five years, from his No. 866 world ranking at the close of 2010 to a No. 17 position by the close of 2014.
The most recent placement came courtesy of top-10 finishes at both the Open Championship and PGA Championship last summer, and his game seems particularly suited to a 7,742-yard, par-70 layout that was constructed in a particularly European manner.
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