US Open Golf 2015: Odds for Sleepers and Favorites Heading into Chambers Bay
We should know by now to expect the unexpected in the U.S. Open. Whether it's the likes of Michael Campbell (2005) and Angel Cabrera (2007) outlasting an in-form Tiger Woods, Webb Simpson getting hot at the right time in 2012 or the lack of American winners (three) over the last 11 years, this tournament is always jam-packed with intrigue.
That quality is taken up another notch this year, as Chambers Bay—a course that was just opened in 2007—will play host to the nation's most prestigious tournament. Why does Chambers Bay add another fascinating element to this year's event? Well, simply because it's unlike any other U.S. Open track.
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Rather than the usual narrow-fairway, slick-green, tree-lined American tracks, Chambers Bay has more of a links feel. It has extremely wide fairways, large greens, plenty of fescue and barely any trees on the course's open layout. It almost feels more like an Open Championship track.
The course has received plenty of criticism from the tournament's contenders, and Ryan Palmer didn't pull any punches when speaking about it during an interview with Mark Cannizzaro of the New York Post:
"As far as the greens are concerned, it's not a championship golf course—not with the way some of the greens are and the pin placements they can put out there. [Davis'] idea of tee boxes is ridiculous. That's not golf. I don't care what anybody says. It will get a lot of bad press from the players. It is a joke. I don't understand it. I just don't know why they would do it.
"
Palmer and some other players may not like the setup, but, hey, someone has to win.
That said, let's take a look at the current Vegas odds for the tournament's favorites and sleepers as we anxiously await to see how the field is able to navigate Chambers Bay.
U.S. Open Odds
| Rory McIlroy | 6-1 |
| Jordan Spieth | 7-1 |
| Dustin Johnson | 16-1 |
| Justin Rose | 18-1 |
| Phil Mickelson | 18-1 |
| Rickie Fowler | 18-1 |
| Adam Scott | 20-1 |
| Jason Day | 22-1 |
| Henrik Stenson | 25-1 |
| Bubba Watson | 28-1 |
| Sergio Garcia | 28-1 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 33-1 |
| Jim Furyk | 33-1 |
| Jimmy Walker | 33-1 |
| Martin Kaymer | 33-1 |
| Matt Kuchar | 33-1 |
| Patrick Reed | 33-1 |
| Tiger Woods | 33-1 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 50-1 |
| Brooks Koepka | 50-1 |
| Billy Horschel | 55-1 |
| Keegan Bradley | 55-1 |
| Paul Casey | 55-1 |
| Graeme McDowell | 66-1 |
| Hunter Mahan | 66-1 |
| JB Holmes | 66-1 |
| Lee Westwood | 66-1 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 66-1 |
| Ryan Moore | 66-1 |
| Webb Simpson | 66-1 |
| Zach Johnson | 66-1 |
All tournament odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
Notable Favorites
Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy enters the U.S. Open as the odds-on favorite despite missing the cut in each of his last two starts. The world No. 1 didn't fare well in the BMW PGA Championship or the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open, bringing his tally of missed cuts to three on the season. Still, he's also posted three wins and a runner-up finish during his roller-coaster year.
During the PGA Championship's media day, McIlroy shared his mentality every time he enters a competition, via Maggie Hendricks of USA Today: "Even if I come out of a tournament, and I've played my best and I haven't won, there's nothing more I can do. Then it's out of my hands. Someone else has played better. I want to perform to the best of my ability that week. If that means I end up lifting up the trophy at the end of it, that's great."
McIlroy isn't letting his bad stretch get to him, and he retreated to Florida to practice for the U.S. Open after taking a week off. The Northern Irishman tends to show up in a big way in majors, and we shouldn't be surprised to see a bounce-back performance at Chambers Bay.
Jordan Spieth
World No. 2 Jordan Spieth continues to nip at McIlroy's heels. Like the world No. 1, Spieth has produced some varied results of late. In Spieth's last four tournaments, he missed a cut, rebounded to finish tied for second two weeks later, posted a tie for 30th the following week and bounced back to notch a tie for third after that.
While his play has been up and down lately, Spieth has done something no other golfer has done yet this season—he won a major. His Masters victory allows him to enter the U.S. Open for the first time as a major winner. That will take a great deal of pressure off the 21-year-old phenom and allow him to compete at a very high level.
Interestingly enough, Spieth appears to enjoy Chambers Bay despite admitting to having trouble with the track's difficult greens. Here's what he had to say during an interview with Bill Nichols of The Dallas Morning News:
"You literally have to land the ball in a 1-yard circle to get it within 20 feet. It can be done, but I just didn't do it.
I absolutely love the golf course, but I just felt like the greens were too hard, too difficult.
"
Spieth may have trouble keeping his ball on the green—most players will likely have the same issue at Chambers Bay—but he can certainly make up for it with his great putting. Ranked first in average putts per round on the PGA Tour, expect the world No. 2 to contend for his second major title in as many attempts.
Notable Sleepers
Generally, Phil Mickelson wouldn't be considered a sleeper in a U.S. Open. After all, Lefty has accumulated six runner-up finishes in the event over the years. However, due to his recent issues with his swing and health, along with the fact that pretty much every player not named McIlroy or Spieth isn't really a favorite, Mickelson lands in this category.
Lefty's start to his 2015 campaign was disastrous, to say the least. He missed two cuts in his first three tournaments and managed no better than a tie for 17th in any event until the Masters. Mickelson found his form at Augusta and put together four solid rounds that led to a tie for second. Since then, he's been all over the place.
He followed up his showing at Augusta by missing the cut in The Players Championship. However, Lefty bounced back quickly with a tie for fourth in the Wells Fargo Championship. His form declined once more, as he finished tied for 65th in the Memorial after a three-week layoff, but he came back strong with a tie for third in last week's St. Jude Classic.
Mickelson has some momentum entering the U.S. Open, and considering Chambers Bay boasts very difficult greens and plenty of fescue surrounding them, a solid short game will be necessary to remain in the mix. Lefty has arguably the best short game on tour, and if he can keep his driver in check and get hot with his putter, he'll have a chance to finally complete his career Grand Slam.
Henrik Stenson
Considering Chambers Bay has the looks of a links-style course, we could see plenty of Europeans in contention given their familiarity with that type of layout. Of those players, world No. 6 Henrik Stenson has one of the best chances to come away with the title.
The Swede hasn't produced any remarkable performances on either the PGA Tour or European Tour this season, entering 11 tournaments, missing one cut and notching three top-10 finishes, including a runner-up showing in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Despite his lack of results, Stenson remains a very consistent player in several aspects of the game.
Perhaps Stenson's best attribute—and most important quality for Chambers Bay—is his ability to hit greens in regulation. He currently ranks tied for second on the PGA Tour with a 72.22 greens-in-regulation percentage. That's translated to a rank of third in total strokes gained—behind just McIlroy and Spieth.
Stenson's accuracy and ability to hold greens will be key at Chambers Bay. Factoring in his extensive experience on links-style courses, there aren't many reasons to discount the Swede's ability to win his first major title.
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