Adrien Broner vs. Shawn Porter: Preview and Prediction for Welterweight Bout
Adrien "The Problem" Broner and "Showtime" Shawn Porter will meet Saturday night at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas in what's being billed as the Battle for Ohio.
NBA will televise the fight as part of the Premier Boxing Champions series, and it will take place at a catchweight of 144 pounds.
Broner, who is from Cincinnati, and Porter, who is from Akron, Ohio, were both born and bred in the Buckeye State, which makes it somewhat puzzling why this bout is taking place thousands of miles away.
Both men are young former world champions who are seeking to erase the sting of bad losses that set them back on their path toward boxing superstardom.
Broner has won three straight since Marcos Maidana manhandled him, while Porter has only fought once since dropping his welterweight strap to Kell Brook, knocking out Erick Bone in March.
This is a true crossroads battle between a pair of young fighters, so continue on for our full preview and prediction of the big fight!
Tale of the Tape
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| Adrien Broner | Shawn Porter | |
| Record | 30-1, 22 KO | 25-1-1, 16 KO |
| Age | 25 | 27 |
| Height | 5'6 ½" | 5'7" |
| Weight | 144 lbs | 144 lbs |
| Reach | 69 ½" | 69 ½" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown | Cincinnati | Akron, Ohio |
| Rounds | 156 | 150 |
| Last Fight | UD 12 John Molina (3/7/15) | KO 5 Erick Bone (3/13/15) |
All stats and information per BoxRec.
Main Storylines
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Broner remains one of the most marketable and recognizable names in the sport, despite his penchant for grinding away at people with his childish antics and often disrespectful nature. He's smart enough to know that controversy sells and that you need to be a little bit off-kilter to make it in this business.
"You got to understand I’m different,” Broner said, per Victor Salazar of Tha Boxing Voice. “They say I’m crazy and I probably am. They say you got to be crazy to be where I’m at and where I’m trying to go."
Where he's trying to go is the top of the sport and, more specifically, the seat occupied by his longtime friend and mentor, Floyd Mayweather Jr. This is his second shot on a prime-time PBC broadcast, and it's also his second chance to prove he can deal with a rugged pressure fighter in the welterweight division.
The first didn't go well.
Porter was on the bullet train to stardom after back-to-back wins over Devon Alexander and Paulie Malignaggi seemed to anoint him as the next big welterweight sensation. A loss to Kell Brook pumped the brakes on that train, but this is a huge opportunity to re-establish himself against a wordy—not a typo—opponent.
"He has a big mouth for a gimmick,” Porter said, per Andreas Hale of the Ring Magazine. "I don’t have a gimmick; my gimmick is what I do in the ring. Whatever he says, there will be no backlash. All of the backlash will take place on June 20 because that’s when it matters.”
Porter would seem to be at something of a disadvantage by having to drop three pounds to make the catchweight limit. But he doesn't seem worried, and it'll be interesting to see how his attacking, swarming style works against Broner, who has struggled with that type of fighter in the past.
Strengths
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Broner has tremendous physical talent, elite hand speed and natural boxing skills that you can't teach. He's the total package in many ways, and it's never been the physical tools that have come into question; it's been his mental focus and commitment to the sport.
The Problem has looked great in the three fights since his loss to Maidana, but none of those were against elite opposition.
Broner demonstrated a renewed commitment to his jab to set up his quick combination punches in a PBC victory over John Molina Jr. in March. That punch, combined with an edge in hand speed, will be the key to holding off the aggressive Porter.
Porter is at his best when he's able to swarm his opponent, get inside and overwhelm him with a high volume of powerful punches. He has tremendous physical strength and can be tough to handle once he gets into his preferred attacking range.
He's been described as a swarmer or grinder, which doesn't work against every opponent but should serve him well against Broner.
Porter has tremendous natural power and great athleticism. He's able to get in and out, switching gears without much of a problem, and he likes to overwhelm his foes with activity.
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Weaknesses
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Broner looked far out of his depth the last time he faced a pressure fighter within the orbit of the welterweight division. Maidana roughed him up, physically manhandled him on the inside and landed big, looping shots almost at will.
Mental focus in the ring hasn't always been his strong suit. It's hard to not keep bringing up Maidana, given the similarities in styles and Broner's lack of high-level opposition since. The Problem had a big problem that night, and it began and ended with his inability to adapt, even when his game plan clearly wasn't working.
Broner showed great improvement in his jab against John Molina Jr., but it's never been his biggest weapon. He has a bad tendency to not make an opponent pay while getting inside, often allowing him to just walk him down. Both are dangerous against a guy like Porter.
Porter had fits with Brook, a taller, rangier boxer with a good jab who kept him at bay and neutralized his offense on the inside. Like Broner, he didn't show much in the way of an ability to adapt on the fly when his preferred tactics weren't getting their desired results.
Sometimes, a loss is a blessing for a young fighter, but we don't have much to go on yet in determining whether that's the case for Showtime.
Porter leaves a lot of openings for counters when he swarms into action. Brook was able to pick those holes apart with his long jab and strength inside that allowed him to smother Showtime. Whether Broner can do the same remains to be seen, but it's proved to work in the not-so-distant past.
Adrien Broner Will Win If...
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Lest we forget, for all the criticisms against him, Broner is still a good fighter when he's on his game and focusing his attention in the right places.
His victories over Carlos Molina, Emmanuel Taylor and John Molina Jr. aren't wins on par with the skill level he'll see Saturday night against Porter, but they did represent a clear attempt by the Cincinnati native and his team to refine some areas of his game that were lacking.
He primarily worked on his jab, which was largely nonexistent in many of his prior fights.
And that's the key weapon coming into this bout.
Broner needs to jab and pop that punch with conviction if he's going to win this fight. He simply cannot allow Porter to walk into scoring range without paying a price.
Porter is the type of fighter who can work comfortably on the outside before bursting in and exploding with powerful, mauling combinations at close range.
Broner' will need to utilize the jab, which comes packed with a significant natural speed advantage, to disrupt Porter and keep him from getting comfortable and set. That should buy him the time to dart in and out with quick combinations of his own before his foe can catch up.
So, for The Problem, the equation is simple: Jab and dart in and out on the outside, tie up and don't get pushed around on the inside.
Shawn Porter Will Win If...
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Porter's path to victory is to take every post-Maidana nightmare Broner had and turn those into reality in the ring at the MGM Grand.
He has the style and power to maul, manhandle and physically wear down his man, but he'll need to do that by turning this one into less of a technical boxing match and more of a dogfight.
The blueprint is definitely out there now.
Maidana's aggression is a bit more naked, and that allowed him to catch Broner off guard with an unconventional attack. But Porter has physical tools and gifts that exceed Chino's by a fair measure.
Porter needs to keep this fight on the inside and bully Broner.
That's his primary objective, and it's where he can outmuscle, maul and thrash his way to a victory.
On the outside, Broner's speed and improved jab will make it difficult for Porter to get the time necessary to work his offense before The Problem is on his horse and out of Dodge.
Porter will win if he spends more time on the inside than the outside.
He's stronger, and we know that Broner doesn't really like the action outside his comfort zone.
So that's exactly where the Akron native needs to bring this fight.
And the Winner Will Be...
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Showtime will prove to be too big a problem for The Problem to solve Saturday night.
Broner looked downright pedestrian in his two prior fights above 140 pounds—hence the need for a 144-pound limit here—struggling to a narrow split decision over Paulie Malignaggi before being dropped and pushed around by Maidana.
Porter blitzed Malignaggi and stopped him in the fourth round, and he has the style and physicality necessary to replicate many of the finer points of the Argentine's attack with far more natural talent and athleticism than the rugged-but-raw Chino.
He's not as powerful, but he makes up for that with a far greater degree of skill and precision on his punches.
Broner doesn't like to be bullied.
He's uncomfortable with a fighter who can outmuscle him on the inside.
Porter should be able to do both, so long as he doesn't have any problems dropping the extra three pounds to get within the catchweight limit.
The Problem was a fierce puncher at 130 pounds, but he hasn't carried much of that with him north to 140, let alone to 147. Even with an improved jab, it's going to be hard for Broner to find the zip on his shots that allowed Brook to hold Porter at distance and neutralize his attack.
No, this fight will be fought on the inside, and that's right in Porter's wheelhouse. He wants this one more—he's more mentally focused on boxing and not outside concerns—and it will show when he drops Broner once and wins by unanimous decision.
Prediction: Porter UD 12 Broner
Kevin McRae is a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. You can follow him on Twitter @McRaeBoxing.
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