Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Top 10 Pickups for Week 11
For the second straight weekend, a blue-chip MLB prospect received a call to the majors.
After the Houston Astros introduced Carlos Correa last week, the Minnesota Twins followed the trend by promoting Byron Buxton, baseball's No. 1-ranked prospect by MLB.com. Perceived as a future five-category superstar, the 21-year-old hit .283/.351/.489 with six homers and 20 steals in Double-A this season.
While owners shouldn't expect another Mike Trout from the start, Buxton can at least provide speed with some scarce pop. His sky-high upside makes him well worth an add, but he's not included in the top 10. Minnesota announced the good news on Saturday afternoon, meaning it's likely too late to snatch him on Monday or later.
Buxton would otherwise top the list, but his Yahoo ownership rate jumped to 49 percent by Sunday night. That puts him right on the cusp of becoming ineligible for a list focusing on guys available in over half of the site's fantasy leagues.
Honorable Mentions
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Justin Smoak, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays (1 Percent Owned)
Danny Espinosa, 2B/SS, Washington Nationals (9 Percent Owned)
Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians (17 Percent Owned)
Mark Canha, 1B/OF, Oakland Athletics (10 Percent Owned)
Yovani Gallardo, SP, Texas Rangers (38 Percent Owned)
Kyle Hendricks, SP, Chicago Cubs (19 Percent Owned)
C.C. Sabathia, SP, New York Yankees (12 Percent Owned)
Joe Ross, SP, Washington Nationals (2 Percent Owned)
10. Steven Matz, SP, New York Mets (10 Percent Owned)
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In somewhat surprising news reported by the New York Post's Mike Puma, "The consensus among team officials is Steven Matz will be wearing a Mets uniform at some point before the All-Star break."
The New York Mets already have a crowded rotation after calling up top prospect Noah Syndergaard in May. They initially planned to embrace that surplus with a six-man rotation, only to nix the plan but then throw Dillon Gee back into the fold for a "light" six-man grouping.
So where does Matz fit into the mess? Barring an injury, he'd likely have to replace Gee in the six-man rotation unless the Mets trade him and/or Jon Niese. Or maybe Matz debuts for another team, with the Mets exchanging him for offensive help. The fact that their lack of need isn't preventing them from looking his way shows the 24-year-old lefty's ability to make an immediate impact.
In 78.1 Triple-A starts, Matz has issued a 2.30 ERA with 81 strikeouts, all the more impressive in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Since arriving in 2012, he has posted a 2.31 ERA with 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings in the minors.
Despite Puma's report, the young lefty could get stuck in purgatory, perhaps earning a late-season promotion to upgrade the bullpen. Still, he'll give New York another outstanding arm upon his arrival, and the chance of that day coming soon makes him an intriguing stash in leagues with a spacious bench.
9. Kevin Pillar, OF, Toronto Blue Jays (18 Percent Owned)
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Likely more a hot hand than a long-term fixture, Kevin Pillar's jubilant June earns him immediate consideration, even if it's just to ride out his streak.
The 26-year-old is hitting 16-for-42 (.381) with two homers this month, which brings his season average to a passable .251. Although he hasn't run as much over the past two weeks, he has swiped nine bags this year after poaching 27 bases trough 100 Triple-A games last year.
Pillar has the foundations to pull off a 10-20 campaign with a decent average. Enjoying the spoils of a loaded Toronto Blue Jays lineup, he has crossed home 38 times in 63 games, a gaudy pace for someone with a .288 on-base percentage.
Also offering hope, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) has dipped from .333 to .285 despite improving his line-drive percentage and contact rate. He could prove useful in five-by-five rotisserie leagues that start five outfielders.
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8. Jaime Garcia, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (40 Percent Owned)
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Much like Brett Anderson last week, Jaime Garcia often teases gamers with success before vanishing to the disabled list. He has thrown 133 innings since 2012 and has never reached 200 innings in a single season.
But he's healthy now, so enjoy the ride. Showing no rust following a shaky, delayed debut, Garcia has generated a 2.08 ERA and 65.3 ground-ball percentage through five starts. Although never a strikeout artist, the 28-year-old hasn't allowed a walk since yielding five during his first outing back.
That gives him 21 strikeouts and no walks over his last 28 innings, most recently impressing against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Kansas City Royals. It's easy to forget due to his constant string of injuries, but Garcia wields a career 3.42 ERA and 3.39 fielding independent pitching (FIP).
With Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn hurt, the St. Louis Cardinals need Garcia to stay healthy in the worst way. Fantasy owners, however, can move on to the next surging starter if any complications arise.
7. Ben Paulsen, 1B, Colorado Rockies (5 Percent Owned)
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A late scratch last week due to Correa's call-up, Ben Paulsen makes the cut this time around. If it takes the obligatory "His name is Ben Paulsen" Fight Club reference to remember him, so be it. Personally, the .590 slugging percentage serves as a helpful reminder.
Given his concerning history with head injuries, don't expect Justin Morneau to return from a concussion too soon. That leaves the Colorado Rockies' first-base job open to Paulsen and Wilin Rosario, whose 1.9 walk percentage and poor defense make him better served to take the smaller piece of a lefty-righty platoon.
Hitting .295 with a .345 on-base percentage, Paulsen stands far out as Colorado's superior option. While he likes Coors Field as much as anyone, he has mounted a .586 slugging percentage away from the hitting-friendly stadium.
Still, he'll likely make his biggest impact at home going forward. For those not yet sold on the 27-year-old, give him a test run starting Wednesday, when Colorado commences an eight-game home stretch. By the time the Rockies hit the road, he'll have far more believers.
6. Wilmer Flores, SS, New York Mets (22 Percent Owned)
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Wilmer Flores doesn't walk, run or play strong defense. Despite his flaws, he's a shortstop with 10 home runs.
Let's count the shortstops with more deep flies than Flores this season. Hanley Ramirez. End of list. Take that, Mets fans who spent months calling for the Mets to clear the farm system for Troy Tulowitzki.
Then again, he also has a .285 on-base percentage due to drawing just eight walks all season. But seriously, he's a shortstop hitting .249 with 10 home runs, and he's just kicking the can in 78 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Only Tulowitzki, Ian Desmond and Jhonny Peralta offered 20-plus bombs at the position last year, and the 23-year-old is on pace to cement his place on that 2015 list. Think of him as 2012-13 J.J. Hardy: a nice middle infielder in standard formats without on-base percentage.
5. Ken Giles, RP, Philadelphia Phillies (36 Percent Owned)
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Before the season began, Ken Giles oozed breakout potential on the promise of the Philadelphia Phillies trading closer Jonathan Papelbon. Over two months into the season, the veteran is still handling ninth-inning duties in Philly.
Keep an eye on that changing before Aug. 1. According to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark, the Phillies "have stepped up their efforts" to move Papelbon:
"Over the past week, according to industry sources, the Phillies have called a number of contenders with potential need for a closer and told them the club would be willing to eat a portion of Papelbon's $13 million salary for this year, along with a portion of his $13 million vesting option for next season, if it brought them a better return in players.
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It took them long enough to realize that the worst team in baseball has no need for a highly paid, 34-year-old reliever. While the vesting option has complicated a potential transaction, Philadelphia should find a suitor if it absorbs most of it.
Giles has not slayed hitters like last year, with 13 walks through 27 innings leading to a 1.37 WHIP. Yet the 24-year-old remains the logical choice to usurp Papelbon on the strength of his 2.00 ERA and 30 strikeouts.
He no longer looks like the second incarnation of Craig Kimbrel, but Giles would still serve as a top fantasy asset with saves attached to his name. And don't assume he won't get any chances for the downtrodden Phillies; Papelbon has notched a dozen.
4. Maikel Franco, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies (34 Percent Owned)
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Last year, Maikel Franco killed his prospect buzz by hitting .179/.190/.214 in 16 MLB games. His inability to impress made him an afterthought this year, during which the third baseman has delivered on earlier hype.
Through 28 games, Franco is hitting .282/.325/.527 with six home runs. The 22-year-old no longer looks lost at the plate, striking out a reasonable 16 times during 117 plate appearances.
Following a dreadful May, he recorded a hit in every June game before Sunday, going 19-for-48 (.396) with four long balls. With that, Philadelphia's hot corner belongs all to him. He has even moved his way up to the middle of a weak batting order, enhancing his chances of producing runs.
This torrid stretch won't last, but he also appears well past his rookie doldrums. With Adrian Beltre and Ryan Zimmerman out, Franco makes a solid injury replacement in shallow leagues and an intriguing power source in all formats.
3. Carson Smith, RP, Seattle Mariners (36 Percent Owned)
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Carson Smith frequented this list two weeks ago on the hopes of snatching the Seattle Mariners' closing gig from the slumping Fernando Rodney. He has since secured two saves, and his ownership rate has jumped from 16 to 36 percent.
That's a start, but what is everyone doing in the other 64 percent of Yahoo leagues?
Seattle manager Lloyd McClendon has changed his tune since the last time. After weeks of sticking to his experienced, proven closer, he recently told the Tacoma News Tribune's Bob Dutton that Rodney isn't ready to take his job back.
On the down side, that indicates McClendon wants Rodney to earn back the ninth inning. Given his 6.49 ERA and 1.70 WHIP, it should take a long string of success before Rodney ousts the newly minted Smith, who has submitted a 1.67 ERA and 0.78 WHIP.
Even if that's the case, add Smith, take the short-term saves and worry about job security later. While he sits on the waiver wire, Addison Reed remains owned in 44 percent of leagues despite his 4.84 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and middle-relief role.
2. Justin Turner, 2B/3B/SS, Los Angeles Dodgers (24 Percent Owned)
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A blind stat test seems necessary to convey Justin Turner's unappreciated productivity this season.
Player A: 151 PA, .319/.391/.496, 5 HR, 1 SB
Player B: 237 PA, .282/.339/.429, 6 HR, 2 SB
Player C: 248 PA, .290/.377/.493, 8 HR, 1 SB
Player D: 209 PA, .304/.336/.490, 7 HR, 0 SB
You see where this is going. Player A is Turner, performing at a star level in limited playing time. Player B is teammate Howie Kendrick, who despite enjoying a fine year at second base trails Turner significantly in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Player C? Matt Carpenter, a top-10 fantasy third baseman who has upped his power game this season. Player D is Troy Tulowitzki, who has bounced back from a rough start to re-establish his seating among baseball's best shortstops.
By the way, Turner is eligible at second base, third base and shortstop in Yahoo formats. Before ruling his early start a fluke, he's hitting .333/.400/.494 in 161 games since joining the Los Angeles Dodgers. While a .404 BABIP aided last year's breakout, he's earning every bit of success this season.
The former journeyman has generated a career-high 31.0 line-drive percentage while pulling 38.1 percent of his batted balls, a sign of pursuing power rather than spreading the field for singles. If he keeps this up, he'll easily register a double-digit homer tally for the first time in his career.
Even in a timeshare, Turner deserves rostering in most leagues, especially for those that count OPS. As he continues to rake, however, his days off are becoming few and farther between. Despite playing Alberto Callaspo on Sunday, Dodgers manager Don Mattingly told the Los Angeles Times' Dylan Hernandez that "It's pretty much Justin" at third base.
1. Mat Latos, SP, Miami Marlins (44 Percent Owned)
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Returning from the disabled list to repair an aching knee and a case of the awfuls, Mat Latos delivered his sharpest start of the season. Following three weeks of rest, the struggling veteran registered a season-high 11 strikeouts through seven innings, yielding one run against the Colorado Rockies.
Time to forgive the typically trustworthy starter, who has never forged an ERA below 3.50 since 2009? One start didn't repair his 5.44 ERA, but his 3.08 FIP suddenly looks pretty good.
That's not to dismiss his early struggles as a fluke. Opponents teed him off with a 37.0 hard-hit percentage, but a healthier Latos hit his spots and avoided a similar pounding. After suffering a strikeout exodus last year, he has compiled 47 punchouts through 49.2 innings.
At the very least, he's better than the dude who got decimated for seven runs before escaping the first inning of his 2015 debut. Since that catastrophe against the Atlanta Braves, his ERA stands at 4.22, which isn't nearly as nauseating as the full picture.
The terrible inning caused many to abandon ship, and owners who stuck around lost their patience when the Miami Marlins placed him on the disabled list. Yet the absence looks to have done the trick, so see if the rejuvenated Latos sticks around for three-and-a-half months.
Note: Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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