Velasquez vs. Werdum: A Complete Guide to UFC 188 Fight Card
The man who could be the greatest heavyweight in the history of mixed martial arts is finally returning. Only, we don't know if he's the greatest ever, because Cain Velasquez can't seem to stay healthy for long enough to prove it.
But after 18 months away from the Octagon, Velasquez is back, and he's facing the man who claimed an interim title in his absence. Fabricio Werdum, the Brazilian who speaks multiple languages and has endeared himself to the Mexican people through his work as part of the Spanish broadcast team, has emerged as a true threat to Velasquez and his grip on the title.
Or has he?
There's only one way to find out. And with the UFC returning to what will surely be a boisterous Mexico City audience with a card that features several potentially thrilling fights, we could be in store for a good Saturday night of combat.
Let's take a look at the entire UFC 188 card, from the first prelim all the way to that main event we've been waiting so long to see.
Albert Tumenov vs. Andrew Todhunter
1 of 12
Division: Welterweight
Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass
Tumenov is a National Master of Sport in both boxing and hand-to-hand combat for Russia. He has multiple gold Russian Championship medals in both hand-to-hand combat and boxing. We’ve seen how his fellow Masters of Sport have fared in mixed martial arts competition; they’re pretty good. Tumenov may not be as good as, say, Khabib Nurmagomedov, but he’s racked up a career 15-2 record that includes three UFC wins (and one loss).
Todhunter is making his UFC debut as a replacement for the injured Hector Urbina. He has seven career wins, and all of them came by submission. In fact, five of them were in the first round. Needless to say, the former U.S. Army sniper has the tools to grapple.
The problem here is that Todhunter is taking a fight against a tough opponent, and he’s doing it on eight days' notice. He’s also never competed at 170 before; all of his previous fights were at middleweight. And he competed in a boxing fight at 197 pounds just three weeks ago. All of that adds up to what might be a short night for Todhunter against Tumenov, but at least he got his foot in the UFC door by stepping up on short notice.
PREDICTION: Albert Tumenov
Gabriel Benitez vs. Clay Collard
2 of 12
Division: Featherweight
Where to watch: Fight Pass
This may seem familiar by now: Benitez has just one fight in the UFC, and it happened during the UFC’s last trip to Mexico City. The featherweight sports a 17-4 career record, though nearly all of his fights have happened against subpar competition for regional Mexican fighting promotions.
Collard made his UFC debut last August against a tough opponent, losing to Max Holloway by TKO in the third round of their “UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs. Dos Anjos” bout. But he rebounded with a win over Alex White at UFC 181 in December.
It’s hard to gauge just how good Benitez is, but we know Collard is solid enough to take home the win.
PREDICTION: Clay Collard
Augusto Montano vs. Cathal Pendred
3 of 12
Division: Welterweight
Where to watch: Fight Pass
Montano has competed professionally since 2008, and his only career loss came at the hands of burgeoning UFC star Sam Alvey in 2011. Montano is undefeated since that loss, and won his UFC debut over Chris Heatherly at UFC 180 the last time the promotion visited Mexico City. He has finished every fight he’s ever won.
Pendred, born in Boston, has been adopted by the Irish faithful as one of their own. He trains alongside Conor McGregor and others at Straight Blast Gym in Dublin and made his first UFC appearances as part of The Ultimate Fighter 19. He lost a controversial decision to eventual winner Eddie Gordon. Since making his official UFC debut last July, Pendred has scored three straight wins, though his last win over Sean Spencer was highly controversial.
Montano is a slight favorite over Pendred, but the pseudo-Irishman seemingly always finds a way to win. I’ll take him here in the upset.
PREDICTION: Cathal Pendred
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Francisco Trevino vs. Johnny Case
4 of 12
Division: Lightweight
Where to watch: FX
The 33-year-old Trevino sports an undefeated record in career MMA bouts. He made his UFC debut in March of 2014, beating Renee Forte by unanimous decision. He trains with the Macaco Gold Team, and his 12 career victories are divided evenly, strangely enough, by manner of stoppage; he has four submissions, four knockouts and four decisions.
Case began wrestling at a young age but started training in mixed martial arts almost immediately upon his graduation from high school. He began competing professionally shortly after he began training; that early start has allowed him to amass a 20-4 career record, despite being just 25 years old. He has two UFC victories in two appearances, beating Kazuki Tokudome and Frankie Perez.
Case is the heavy favorite here and for good reason. He has more tools in the arsenal than Trevino. He is younger. And he has more experience. I expect something of a showcase fight for Case here.
PREDICTION: Johnny Case
Alejandro Perez vs. Patrick Williams
5 of 12
Division: Bantamweight
Where to watch: FX
Perez is the bantamweight winner of The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America. This will be his second UFC bout; the first came in the finals of TUF: Latin America, when he beat show teammate Jose Alberto Quinonez at UFC 180. He also scored a victory in the house over Fredy Serrano.
Williams made his UFC debut nearly a year ago, at UFC 172 in Baltimore. His debut ended in highlight-reel fashion, but he was unfortunately on the wrong end; Chris Beal finished him with a spectacular flying knee knockout that was one of the best KOs of 2014.
Perez’s experience level will likely be the deciding factor here. He’s a slight betting favorite, and I think he has what it takes to edge Williams.
PREDICTION: Alejandro Perez
Efrain Escudero vs. Drew Dober
6 of 12
Division: Lightweight
Where to watch: FX
Escudero has been in the UFC since 2008. That’s when he beat Phillipe Nover to win Season 8 of The Ultimate Fighter. Since then, he has bounced in and out of the UFC while moonlighting for other regional promotions (and even Bellator) between UFC runs. He’s 1-1 in his latest stint, losing to Leonardo Santos before rebounding with a win over Rodrigo de Lima in February.
In Dober, Escudero is facing a tough opponent. He dropped his first two fights in the UFC to Sean Spencer and Nick Hein but rebounded by sending Jamie Varner into retirement in December. He was involved in a weird incident in March when he was apparently submitted by Leandro Silva; that result was changed to a no-contest, however, after the Brazilian commission ruled that the stoppage was a mistake by the referee.
One never really knows what to expect from Escudero. Sometimes he looks like the veteran he is, but he occasionally looks lost in the Octagon. I’ll take Dober here but also recognize that this is a winnable fight for Escudero, and his veteran experience may pay off.
PREDICTION: Drew Dober
Chico Camus vs. Henry Cejudo
7 of 12
Division: Flyweight
Where to watch: FX
This is one of my most anticipated fights on this entire card.
Cejudo, a former Olympic gold medalist in wrestling, is a dynamite prospect at flyweight and is making his way up the ranks. We know all about his wrestling, which is the truest definition of “world class” in a sport where that term is thrown around far too often. But what makes Cejudo truly exciting is his striking game, which has improved leaps and bounds since his mixed martial arts debut. He is technical and packs a lot of power into both hands.
When a true world-class wrestler has the ability to do damage standing, without even mixing in his wrestling game, he becomes someone you simply have to watch.
Camus earned the biggest win of his career when he beat Brad Pickett last November. He is the toughest test of Cejudo’s career. But he is also a bit of a journeyman, and this is a fight that Cejudo should own from beginning to end. A win for the gold medalist could secure him a fight with one of the division's bigger names like Joseph Benavidez.
PREDICTION: Henry Cejudo
Tecia Torres vs. Angela Hill
8 of 12Division: Strawweight
Where to watch: Pay-per-view
Torres and Hill are both products of the UFC’s strawweight season of The Ultimate Fighter. Torres was a known commodity going into the show, but Hill—with almost no professional mixed martial arts experience—might have been the fighter to gain the most from her time in the house.
Torres is just 5-0 in an MMA career that began in 2012, but she has faced some of the best her division has to offer (outside of Angela Magana, of course). She has wins over Paige VanZant, Felice Herrig and Rose Namajunas, all of which came in Invicta. She’s a dynamo on the feet and is thrilling to watch.
Hill is also a stand-up fighter, with a muay thai style that makes her one of the division’s most exciting fighters. While she doesn’t have the same MMA experience as many of her strawweight compatriots, she does have a lengthy history in Thai fighting that gives her plenty of confidence on the feet.
If this fight stays standing, we could see an upset brewing. Despite her good striking game, the best option for Torres will be on the ground. If she can’t get Hill there, she could be looking at a short night.
PREDICTION: Angela Hill
Yair Rodriguez vs. Charles Rosa
9 of 12Division: Featherweight
Where to watch: Pay-per-view
Rodriguez was the featherweight winner of The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America. If you didn’t see the show, don’t worry; you are not alone. It is difficult to keep up with the many region-specific variations of the reality show now airing across the world.
This is Rodriguez’s second official UFC bout. He faced Leonardo Morales in the UFC’s debut in Mexico City last November, winning by decision. He has just five professional fights but owns a black belt in taekwondo.
Rosa was raised in a family of boxers; his grandfather, father and uncle were all professionals. He began training karate at a young age and made his MMA debut in 2012. Since that time, he has amassed a 10-1 record, including a big win over Sean Soriano in his last UFC bout with a nice D’Arce choke.
Rosa earned Fight of the Night honors in his UFC debut loss to Dennis Siver last October. At the very least, you can expect him to push the pace here and put on an exciting fight. All 10 of his pro wins have come by submission or TKO; the lone decision in his career was the Siver loss. I expect Rosa’s experience level and pace to be the difference-maker here, and he’ll finish Rodriguez before the final bell.
PREDICTION: Charles Rosa
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Nate Marquardt
10 of 12
Division: Middleweight
Where to watch: Pay-per-view
Gastelum’s issues with making the welterweight limit earlier this year have forced him to move up a weight class. It wasn’t his decision; he was essentially told that he was no longer a welterweight, at least if he wanted to be in the UFC.
As a prospect, Gastelum seemed to come out of nowhere. During his season of The Ultimate Fighter, all focus was on Uriah Hall and his terrifying knockout power. But then Gastelum beat Hall in the finals, and then he began dispatching tough opponents: Brian Melancon, Rick Story, Nico Musoke and Jake Ellenberger.
Gastelum is undersized for the middleweight division. But he is also facing a man who is certainly on the downward slope of his career. Marquardt has lost four of his last five fights, and his time at welterweight was mostly a disaster. His chin has failed him repeatedly, and that is bad news against a fighter who hits hard, as Gastelum does.
If Gastelum is the prospect everyone still believes him to be—despite the loss to Tyron Woodley following his weight-cut snafu—he should be able to dispatch Marquardt with ease. I think that’s exactly what we’ll see here.
PREDICTION: Kelvin Gastelum
Gilbert Melendez vs. Eddie Alvarez
11 of 12
Division: Lightweight
Where to watch: Pay-per-view
In a way, this feels like a fight that’s about five years too late. But that doesn’t mean it won’t be a classic.
Melendez and Alvarez have been circling each other for years, dating back to when Melendez was in Strikeforce and wanted a co-promoted bout with Alvarez, who was the reigning Bellator champion. That co-promotion never happened, and it was unfortunate, but at least we’re finally getting the fight.
Melendez is still one of the best lightweights in the world. His only losses since 2008 came at the hands of Anthony Pettis and Benson Henderson when both men were UFC champions. Outside of those losses, he has beaten some of the best competition the division has to offer and has continually been near the top of the rankings.
Alvarez stumbled in his UFC debut last September, losing to Donald Cerrone. Many took this as a sign that Alvarez would reign supreme in lesser promotions with easier competition but would fail to beat top-level UFC talent. I don’t think that’s the case at all. I think Alvarez ran into a surging version of Cerrone that was going to be quite difficult to beat for just about anyone, and the striking matchup fell in Cerrone’s favor.
Regardless of what it means for the division, this should be a thrilling bout. I hate using the term “warriors,” because I believe it is overused, but that’s the perfect description for both of these men. And fighting in front of the crowd in Mexico should give them a surge of adrenaline that leads to an odds-on favorite for Fight of the Night.
Alvarez is an awesome fighter, but Melendez has more tools. If they elect to stand in the pocket and trade punches, this could go either way. But if Melendez uses his wrestling to control Alvarez, he should be able to score a decision win.
PREDICTION: Gilbert Melendez
Cain Velasquez vs. Fabricio Werdum (UFC Heavyweight Championship)
12 of 12
Division: Heavyweight
Where to watch: Pay-per-view
I’m sitting here knocking on wood, because (at the time I’m writing this) we’re still more than a week away from Cain Velasquez returning to the Octagon, and all signs are that he’s healthy and ready to go. But I’m knocking on wood because Velasquez has a terrible injury history, and I guess we can never entirely feel comfortable with the notion that he’s going to fight until he’s actually in the Octagon.
But if he does make it to the Octagon on Saturday night, we’ll finally have the chance to see the best heavyweight of this generation. It has been far too long, and we have been robbed of far too many chances to see him because of his injuries. I think we tend to forget just how good Velasquez is, because in mixed martial arts, absence doesn’t make the heart grow fonder; absence makes us forget. And then he comes back, and he reminds us of just how gloriously violent he is, and we remember what he has done to so many other heavyweights.
I think that’s what we’ll see here. Fabricio Werdum has made improbable strides since his first go-around in the UFC, and today he is the second-best heavyweight on the planet. But I believe there is a wide gulf between Velasquez and Werdum, and you will see it on Saturday night. Observers talk about Velasquez being away from the Octagon for so long, and they wonder how he’ll be able to perform after being on the shelf for so long. But he’s been on the shelf for lengthy amounts of time before and performed as he always does when he came back.
Werdum has developed a very good striking game to go with his otherworldly submission game, but he has never faced anyone with the pressure Velasquez brings into the Octagon. Velasquez has the ability to go nonstop for 25 minutes, to get in his opponent’s face and push him against the Octagon and drag him to the canvas at will. He is a force of nature. There is nobody in mixed martial arts with better cardio, and he is a heavyweight.
And I think that will be the difference-maker against Werdum, as it so often is against everyone else Velasquez faces. I believe you’ll see Velasquez push Werdum until he breaks, likely by the end of the third round (if not earlier), and then he’ll either score a TKO or win a lopsided decision.
PREDICTION: Cain Velasquez
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