Preview and Predictions for the 2015 FedEx St. Jude Classic
The tour is one stop closer to the U.S. Open at Chambers Bay.
The St. Jude Classic, won last year by Ben Crane, is the final tuneup for players to iron out any wrinkles that could conceivably creep up in the year’s second major.
Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson and Billy Horschel contend in this latest renewal of the St. Jude, where one spot still remains in the U.S. Open field if they can just crack into the top 60 in the Official World Golf Ranking. You better believe Padraig Harrington (91st in the world) will be playing his guts out this week.
The tour is in Tennessee before the golfers head west for the second major. Read on for this week’s preview and prediction from Memphis.
Where to Watch and Tournament Info
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Defending Champion: Ben Crane
Where
TPC Southwind (Memphis, Tennessee)
7,239 yards, Par 70
What
Total Purse: $6,000,000
Winning Share: $1,080,000
FedEx Points to Winner: 500
When
Thursday-Friday
4-7 p.m. ET, Golf Channel
Saturday-Sunday
1-2:30 p.m. ET, Golf Channel; 3-6 p.m. ET, CBS
The Biggest Storylines
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Lefty Tries to Fine-Tune Game
Phil Mickelson plays for the second week in a row in an attempt to tighten the screws on his game. He has played well at this tournament, as he was the runner-up in 2013 and finished in a tie for 11th in 2014.
Mickelson comes off a Memorial tournament in a tie for 65th, after finishing in a tie for fourth in the Wells Fargo Championship, after missing the cut at the Players. You get the idea. Mickelson’s game looks like an EKG.
Lefty was atrocious Saturday at the Memorial hitting, just 38.89 percent of his greens. His putter did him no favors either.
If he’s to win that elusive U.S. Open and become a career winner of all majors, he has some karma on his side. It helps to leave a $99 tip to kids selling lemonade.
Ben Crane Goes for Title Defense
Crane, a five-time winner on tour, looks to defend his title from a year ago.
In last year’s St. Jude he went wire-to-wire, surfing an opening-round 63 and holding off Troy Merritt to win his first tournament since 2011.
"I did not expect the hole to open up like that and just start making putts from everywhere," Crane said, according to the Associated Press (h/t Golf.com). "Just hit a lot of quality shots and obviously built a nice lead to start out with."
Crane has had a rough go of it in 2015. In 15 events he's made just six cuts. His best finish was at the Tournament of Champions (a tie for 29th) way back on January 12.
It doesn’t look promising for Crane.
Is Billy Horschel Peaking?
The reigning FedEx Cup champion nearly scored a top 10 at the Memorial by finishing in a tie for 11th in Dublin, Ohio.
Horschel’s game, which was spotty early in the year, is rounding into good form. His strokes gained total and putts per green in regulation were tied for 11th and 12th, respectively, in Dublin. When his approaches stick, he’s rolling the ball well.
After taking third place in the Valero Texas Open, he went on a skid where he missed the cut at the Masters and tied for 51st and 48th in the next two events.
Since then, he has three top 20s and looks like the player who charged through the FedEx Cup playoffs in 2014.
The Favorites
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Dustin Johnson
Dustin Johnson reprises his role as one of the favorites this week at the St. Jude.
He won this tournament in 2012 and is a threat to win every time he sets foot on a golf course this year. He finished in a tie for 13th at the Memorial despite shooting a double bogey in each round. That’s eight strokes he coughed up.
Alec Brzezinski of SportingNews.com wrote, “TPC Southwind is a longer course for a par-70 (7,239 yards) and favors longer hitters who can shape the ball. DJ will be licking his wounds a bit after posting some big numbers at Muirfield Village last week but is still a force to be reckoned with.”
Just like he did at Doral, Johnson’s bombs off the tee should put him in great position to go low and be in the top five come Sunday.
Phil Mickelson
Mickelson’s game may be a touch erratic these days, but given his past performances in this tournament, he’ll be a contender come Sunday.
Following the 2014 St. Jude, Lefty said, per the Associated Press (h/t Golf.com):
"The way I drove the ball last two rounds I had an opportunity to shoot really low. My iron play was poor, and my putting was pathetic. I'll have to make some changes and to get ready for next week. But the game is not far off because I'm driving the ball very well and putting it in play.
"
There’s little else Mickelson wants in his golf career more than a win at the U.S. Open, and playing well in this event will give him the confidence he needs to go low at Chambers Bay.
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Dark Horses
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Ryan Palmer
Ryan Palmer’s name rarely surfaces when it comes to winning golf tournaments, but it should. It ultimately boils down to a simple question: Which Palmer will show up Thursday?
He’s the same player who finished in a tie for second at the Phoenix Open and then missed two cuts in a row at the Players and Crowne Plaza Invitational. After that he registered his fourth top 10 of the year at the Byron Nelson.
If top-10 Palmer shows up—the guy who is 13th in strokes gained tee-to-green—then, yes, he is a strong contender at Southwind.
Camilo Villegas
Camilo Villegas is, as PGATour.com’s Rob Bolton says, “a horse for a course” at Southwind. Back in 2011, Villegas grabbed a third-place finish at this tournament.
“I think if you can learn to just be a little more in the present and just forget that I’ve done this or I should do this, that’s not going to do much,” Villegas said after the event in Stuart Hall’s Golf Press Association story (h/t CBS DFW). “You just have to say ‘I am going to hit this shot the best I can’ and keep plugging.”
To date Villegas hasn’t been hitting his best shots. He finally snapped a nasty stretch of six tournaments where he either missed the cut (five) or withdrew (one) by finishing in a tie for 40th at the Memorial.
Villegas isn’t exactly trending, but as far as dark horses go, they don’t get much darker than Villegas.
Padraig Harrington
Harrington will be going after it hard at the St. Jude, since this is his final shot to qualify for the U.S. Open.
He’s 91st in the world and needs to get into the top 60 for a ticket to Washington. As he sees it, he needs 25 world ranking points to make it to Chambers Bay.
In order to do so, he’ll have to win this event that has just one top-10 player (Johnson).
Now, he already won an event on tour this year, taking the Honda Classic in a playoff. Since? His best result is a tie for 42nd at the Players, and he missed three cuts.
Harrington is a gamer who will throw his entire arsenal at this tournament.
Prediction
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Henry David Thoreau wrote in Walden, “The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation.”
Harrington will be playing desperate this week, and that can go in either direction on the leaderboard. Looking at his results in 2015 doesn't inspire confidence.
Like Mickelson, maybe Harrington is just waiting to gear up for the majors, and the St. Jude will play out like a major for him. It's a single-elimination tournament.
A bogey on the final hole at the Walton's Health Old Course cost him a chance at qualifying for the U.S. Open over a week ago. This is his last chance, and he won't squander it.
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