UFC Fight Night 68: B/R Main Card Staff Predictions
Dan Henderson has had an outstanding MMA career, but his future could depend on a win over Tim Boetsch in the UFC Fight Night 68 main event this weekend.
The former Pride FC champion has lost two in a row, but it could have been six in a row had he not come back from being essentially unconscious in a UFC Fight Night 38 bout with Mauricio Rua.
With a loss to Boetsch on Saturday, Henderson's title hopes would be dashed. And if he has little to no chance of winning a UFC belt, Henderson really wouldn't have any reason to continue competing seeing as he's accomplished everything else there is to accomplish in MMA.
As this pivotal bout in Henderson's career approaches, it's time for us to get the crew back together for some main card predictions. Riley Kontek, Craig Amos, James MacDonald, Scott Harris and Sean Smith are back to provide their picks for UFC Fight Night 68.
2015 Staff Records
1 of 7
James MacDonald can keep that top spot warm for me for now.
There is still plenty of time left in 2015, and Riley Kontek and I are only two correct picks behind. Meanwhile, we are eight correct picks above last-place Scott Harris.
I'm not too sure what Harris is planning down there. Maybe some kind of comeback like UFC Fight Night 68 headliner Tim Boetsch had against Yushin Okami years ago.
| W | L | |
| James MacDonald | 57 | 29 |
| Riley Kontek | 55 | 31 |
| Sean Smith | 55 | 31 |
| Craig Amos | 49 | 37 |
| Scott Harris | 47 | 39 |
Francisco Rivera vs. Alex Caceres
2 of 7
Riley Kontek
Alex Caceres is an enigma. He wins fights he shouldn't and loses fights that he should win. Then there's Francisco Rivera, a hard-nosed power puncher who can end anyone's night with one punch. Caceres is quicker and flashier, but Rivera is extremely aggressive and big on damage. I think he can snag a finish late.
Rivera, TKO, Rd. 3
Craig Amos
This is a tough one to call. Caceres is inconsistent but talented, while Rivera is steady but limited. I lack all confidence in making a pick either way, but I'll settle on Caceres. I guess.
Caceres, Unanimous decision
James MacDonald
Caceres has lots of talent, but he is extremely inconsistent. He’s a more flamboyant fighter than Rivera, but I’m not sure that he’s the more effective fighter. Rivera packs a wallop, and Caceres is very hittable, so I expect the former to eventually get the stoppage.
Rivera, TKO, Rd. 2
Scott Harris
This is going to be a better fight than most people seem to be expecting. Both are dynamic strikers, and neither will want to go to the ground. Rivera's heavy fists will spell the difference.
Rivera, TKO, Rd. 2
Sean Smith
I wouldn't be shocked to see Caceres win this one on the ground. That said, I'm not sure he has the offensively wrestling to get the bout there early. One of the heavier hitters in the bantamweight division, Rivera won't need to stand upright very long to hurt his opponent.
Rivera, TKO, Rd. 2
Joe Soto vs. Anthony Birchak
3 of 7
Riley Kontek
I was very high on Anthony Birchak until his brief encounter with Ian Entwistle in his UFC debut. That cast a shadow on a promising prospect and leaves us with question marks. Joe Soto is better than a lot of people think and tough as nails. On the feet, he is better than Birchak and should be able to thwart his takedowns.
Soto, Unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Soto's first UFC match came on short notice against champion T.J. Dillashaw. Given the circumstances, he acquitted himself quite well. Now is his chance to do more than acquit himself well. Now it is time for him to notch his first UFC win. He should do so by outpointing Birchak en route to a clear-cut decision victory.
Soto, Unanimous decision
James MacDonald
Joe Soto is a criminally underrated fighter, while Birchak is a decent talent. Look for this to be a fun scrap then. I tend to lean toward Soto, however. The former Bellator featherweight champion is the superior striker and should get this one done on the feet.
Soto, Unanimous decision
Scott Harris
A year ago, before Soto got the call to replace Renan Barao against TJ Dillashaw at UFC 177, these two were set to fight on the undercard. Now, a year later, both with one extra loss on their records, and here they are on the main card. You do the math. Anyway, Soto pulls out a close one.
Soto, Unanimous decision
Sean Smith
I'll complete the clean sweep for Soto. He was too competitive against Dillashaw to pick against in a matchup with an opponent like Birchak.
Soto, Submission, Rd. 1
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Thiago Tavares vs. Brian Ortega
4 of 7
Riley Kontek
Thiago Tavares is a monster at 145. He is a gargantuan in terms of size. He is also a good, overlooked fighter because of his lack of consistent activity. That said, Brian Ortega is likely a big underdog here. That's hard to believe to hardcore fans, who know how talented he is. As Scott Harris would say, sound the upset alarms.
Ortega, Unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Ortega draws a tough matchup here. He likes to shoot the takedown and work for submissions, but there aren't too many mixed martial artists who fare well implementing that strategy against Tavares. The Brazilian has also exhibited excellent clinch work on the feet lately, should Ortega rethink his approach. Tavares has all the angles covered here.
Tavares, Submission, Rd. 2
James MacDonald
Most people would probably lean toward Tavares here. Ortega has loads of potential, though. His striking is coming along, and his jiu-jitsu is always dangerous. I expect T-City to get the fight to the ground and control the action to earn the decision.
Ortega, Unanimous decision
Scott Harris
All the good will Ortega found in that epic RFA battle with Keoni Koch and a win in his UFC debut evaporated after a positive steroid test. He has great grappling, but Tavares has a heavier control game and won't fall into one of Ortega's aggressive submission plays. Ground-and-pound coming your way.
Tavares, TKO, Rd. 2
Sean Smith
I know Ortega looked good in his last appearance, but I'm surprised to see people picking him in this matchup. He hasn't competed in 10 months and is returning against an experienced opponent with ground skills to match him. I see Tavares grinding this one out.
Tavares, Unanimous decision
Dustin Poirier vs. Yancy Medeiros
5 of 7
Riley Kontek
Dustin Poirier's move up to lightweight has looked to be a good move for him. He's quicker, fresher and just as powerful as he was before. However, Yancy Medeiros is criminally underrated. He's a big 155 pounds and well-rounded. This is a coin toss, in my opinion, and I think Poirier can make the home crowd happy in this card's Fight of the Night.
Poirier, Unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Medeiros is one of the most underrated fighters on the UFC roster. This Saturday he'll get the chance to step into contention, but Poirier makes for a tall order. If Poirier fights tactically, he should win, but he is inclined to slug it out from time to time. And if Medeiros can goad him into trading, he just may well pull off the upset.
Medeiros, Unanimous decision
James MacDonald
This should be a decent test for Poirier. Medeiros is a skilled opponent, and he’s big at the weight. Still, Poirier has more tools he can rely on. It won’t be easy, but look for him to continue his winning ways at 155 pounds.
Poirier, Unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Medeiros appears to finally be putting it all together. He's a dangerous opponent, but I don't see him beating the same Poirier who re-emerged as a lightweight a few months ago. With the bayou breeze at his back, Poirier puts on the performance of the evening.
Poirier, Unanimous decision
Sean Smith
Initially, I wasn't a fan of Poirier's decision to move to 155 pounds, but he looked excellent against Carlos Diego Ferreira. Medeiros is more well-rounded, but Poirier has proven himself against tougher competition and should be a step ahead in all areas.
Poirier, Submission, Rd. 1
Ben Rothwell vs. Matt Mitrione
6 of 7
Riley Kontek
I am tempted to take Matt Mitrione, but here's why I can't. Ben Rothwell can stand with him, has an iron jaw and has a better ground game. Mitrione's quickness and athleticism could serve him well here, but I trust the well-roundedness of the Wisconsin native.
Rothwell, Unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Rothwell is a well-rounded fighter. He hits hard, he can grapple and he can take a shot. But Mitrione has been on some kind of roll lately. His MMA skills seem to be catching up to his natural athleticism, and he is emerging as a remarkably dangerous heavyweight. He'll keep the ball rolling with another quick finish.
Mitrione, KO, Rd. 1
James MacDonald
Tough fight to call. Mitrione is the more talented fighter and is certainly more fluid on the feet. Rothwell carries plenty of power, though. If he connects, The Ultimate Fighter veteran might be in trouble. I’m just not sure he will. Mitrione moves too well for someone as flat-footed as Rothwell, and I expect him to coast to a decision.
Mitrione, Unanimous decision
Scott Harris
I've gone back and forth a bit on this one. Heart says Rothwell, but the head says Mitrione. Mitrione is the better athlete here, he's a little lighter on his feet and he'll outlast Rothwell in a battle that will be a power-striking stalemate.
Mitrione, Unanimous decision
Sean Smith
I can't decide who is going to win this bout. It really could come down to whoever lands the first big shot. With a noticeable speed advantage, I'll just go ahead and say that Mitrione gets to Rothwell before the alternative happens.
Mitrione, TKO, Rd. 1
Tim Boetsch vs. Dan Henderson
7 of 7
Riley Kontek
Dan Henderson is a shell of his former self, but I am a diehard Hendo follower. I rarely can pick against him. In terms of matchups, Tim Boetsch is the type of guy Henderson is capable of besting.
Henderson, TKO, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
Henderson still has power and is still capable of beating opponents on Boetsch's level. But, and there tends to be a numbers of "buts" when we talk about a 44-year-old with five losses in his last six fights, Boetsch could turn this one into a grind and grind out the victory. Though both men are wrestlers, neither is effective at defending against takedowns, so it may be whoever exploits that weakness more often gets the win. And of the two, Boetsch is more likely to pursue such a game plan.
Boetsch, TKO, Rd. 4
James MacDonald
Henderson might be a little long in the tooth, but he’s still got the beating of the likes of Boetsch. The Barbarian doesn’t have any real weapons to hurt Hendo and arguably lacks the tools to even grind out a victory. Henderson will connect with his right hand eventually, and that should be lights out for Boetsch.
Henderson, TKO, Rd. 2
Scott Harris
Oh, man. I don't want to pick this fight any more than I want to watch it. Hendo won't have the speed to catch up and land the H-bomb, even against an opponent as plodding as Boetsch. Boetsch is going to get the better of clinch exchanges and will be the better athlete than the former great 10 years his senior.
Boetsch, Unanimous decision
Sean Smith
As hard as it is to do to a fighter who got me into MMA to begin with, I'll drop the hammer on Henderson in this bout and, effectively, on his career. Henderson's punches come too slow nowadays, and his wrestling has diminished too much. I think we've seen his last win over a contender in either the light heavyweight or middleweight divisions.
Boetsch, Unanimous decision
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