UFC Fight Night 68: Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions
At UFC Fight Night 68, Dan Henderson will clash with Tim Boetsch in a bout that could decide his future or lack thereof in MMA.
Since a come-from-behind win over Mauricio Rua in March 2014, Henderson has posted an 0-2 record. The former Pride FC champion has also lost in five of his past six outings. At 44 years old, that could signal that the end is near.
After becoming a middleweight contender with wins over Yushin Okami and Hector Lombard, Boetsch has settled into the lower end of the Top 15 by alternating wins and losses over his past five appearances. Coming off a loss, though, he may need a win over Henderson in order to maintain his No. 13 position.
With another UFC event coming up, here is a look at the betting odds along with predictions for all the UFC Fight Night 68 main card bouts.
Francisco Rivera (-120) vs. Alex Caceres (-110)
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Following a five-bout winning streak, Francisco Rivera has gotten some tough matchups and has now lost two in a row. Losses to Urijah Faber and Takeya Mizugaki weren't overly damaging to Rivera's standing, but he'll need to win on Saturday to remain a contender.
Opposite Faber and Masanori Kanehara, Alex Caceres has also met some tough opposition. However, a big win over Rivera could get Caceres back into the Top 15 bantamweight rankings.
Should this bout go to the ground, Caceres will have a big advantage and might be able to lock up a submission. However, The Ultimate Fighter 12 contestant doesn't have the greatest offensive wrestling and could get overpowered by Rivera.
If Rivera can keep this standing long enough, he may hand Caceres his first knockout loss.
Prediction: Rivera
Play: 1 percent bankroll on Rivera
Joe Soto (-185) vs. Anthony Birchak (+150)
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Due to some Renan Barao weight-cutting issues, Joe Soto made an unexpected UFC debut against bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw. Though Soto came up short, he impressed against the UFC titleholder and showed he has the ability to be a 135-pound contender.
Anthony Birchak was initially supposed to debut against Soto, but his first trip to the Octagon got delayed by Soto's promotion to the title bout with Dillashaw. Instead, Birchak met Ian Entwistle and was submitted in the opening round.
Based on their first UFC performances, it seems apparent that Soto is the better fighter. Crazy things happen in MMA, but I'd bet big that Soto picks up his first UFC win at UFC Fight Night 68.
Prediction: Soto
Play: 2 percent bankroll on Soto
Thiago Tavares (-185) vs. Brian Ortega (+150)
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With a win over Robbie Peralta in his 145-pound debut, Thiago Tavares might be on to something with his move to the featherweight division.
In July 2014, Brian Ortega made his UFC debut against Mike De La Torre and recorded a submission in the opening round. That victory, though, was overturned when Ortega failed his UFC on Fox 12 drug test.
Ortega's performance against De La Torre was impressive, but he hasn't competed in the past 10 months. That and Tavares' experience should add up to a statement win for the Brazilian.
Prediction: Tavares
Play: 2 percent bankroll on Tavares
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Dustin Poirier (-185) vs. Yancy Medeiros (+150)
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When Dustin Poirier made the move to 155 pounds following a loss to Conor McGregor at 145 pounds, I questioned whether he was making the right decision. However, The Diamond impressed in his UFC lightweight debut against Carlos Diego Ferreira, recording a knockout win.
Following an 0-2 start to his UFC career, Yancy Medeiros has rebounded well. With submission wins in two straight outings, he is making a run at title contention and could take that next step with a win over Poirier.
Both Poirier and Medeiros have the ability to finish from all positions. Given his longer track record against top competition, Poirier should be a step ahead of Medeiros in all areas.
Prediction: Poirier
Play: 1 percent bankroll on Poirier
Ben Rothwell (+160) vs. Matt Mitrione (-200)
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Coming off knockout wins over Alistair Overeem and Brandon Vera, Ben Rothwell is on the verge of becoming one of the top contenders in the heavyweight division. However, he hasn't competed in nine months and has lost some momentum for that reason.
With three straight knockout wins, Mitrione might have more momentum going than any other heavyweight contender. Looking better than he ever has, his skill might finally be catching up with his athleticism.
This matchup will come down to which man lands the big punch before the other. It could go either way, but I'll give Mitrione the nod based on his speed.
Prediction: Mitrione
Play: 1 percent bankroll on Mitrione
Tim Boetsch (-210) vs. Dan Henderson (+170)
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While Boetsch has remained a contender in the middleweight division, he's had trouble gaining enough momentum to push into the Top 10. The Barbarian hasn't won back-to-back contests since July 2012 and will again look to avoid losing two in a row this weekend.
Henderson, meanwhile, has lost five of his past six fights and could have lost six in a row had the referee decided to stop the bout when Hendo was badly hurt. He always has his one-punch knockout power to fall back on, but Henderson appears to be fading quickly.
It's hard to count Henderson out, as he can end any fight out of nowhere. However, his punches have been coming slower and slower and his wrestling isn't what it used to be, so there's a good reason Boetsch is running as the favorite right now.
Prediction: Boetsch
Play: 1 percent bankroll on Boetsch
Odds per Odds Shark.
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