NBA Finals 2015: Position-by-Position Matchup Preview
Every matchup matters as the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors prepare to stage a best-of-seven battle for rights to the NBA's Larry O'Brien Trophy.
It is these advantages and disadvantages that will determine who walks away as a champion, and who leaves as a historical footnote.
Nothing is off limits here. In addition to the five starters, we're taking a gander at benches and coaches.ย
Again, everything matters.
Both regular-season and playoff performances will play a part in determining which team is awarded the edge in each area. Statistics are our basis for everything, and they will be supported by other mitigating factors such as health, reputation and big-time moments, games or entire series from past postseason matchups.
To the position-by-position drawing board!
Point Guard: Kyrie Irving vs. Stephen Curry
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Remember when this would have been an actual debate?
Neither does Stephen Curry's freshly polished Maurice Podoloff Trophy.
Kyrie Irving is great. Playing beside LeBron James has allowed him to blossom as a No. 2 option, and his 48.1 percent clip from downtown in these playoffs is outstanding. But he's still injured.
โWeโre hoping to help him to come into the series in the best possible way,โ Cavaliers coach David Blatt said, per the Akron Beacon Journal's George M. Thomas. โHeโs still not where he was prior to his foot and knee issues. Slowly but surely heโs making some progress.โ
Spot-up shooting is his greatest weapon right now. And though it's a pretty darn good weapon to haveโhe is putting in 68.2 percent of his catch-and-shoot treysโa limited Irving is no match for Curry. Heck, a fully able Irving is no match forย this Curry.
Not only is Curry the reigning MVP, but he's second in postseason player efficiency rating. He has already shattered the record for three-pointers made and attempted during a single playoff campaign, and his stat lines continue to boggle the mind.
Only two other players have averaged at least 29 points and six assists with a true shooting percentage north of 60 throughย more than five postseason contests: James and Michael Jordan.
(Related: Holy crap.)
That nasty fall and subsequent blow to the head in Golden State's Game 4 loss to the Houston Rockets initially had some running scared. But Curry returned to that game and then put forth a 26-point, eight-rebound, six-assist and five-steal effort in the Warriors' Western Conference-clinching Game 5 win.
Curry is fine.
He's also the best point guard in this series by far.
Edge:ย Warriors
Shooting Guard: Iman Shumpert vs. Klay Thompson
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This matchup is Klay Thompson's to lose.
After being diagnosed with a concussion on the heels of Golden State's Game 5 win over Houston, Thompson's status for Game 1 against Cleveland was up in the air. But he has since returned to practice and will be ready to rock in time for the Finals, according to CSN Bay Area's Monte Pool.
Good thing, too. Thompson still draws some of the toughest defensive assignments. At 6'7", he'll see time on LeBron James. He'll also be asked to guard the likes of Kyrie Irving, Iman Shumpert, J.R. Smith and anyone else on Cleveland's roster who isn't taller than 6'10".
Shumpert assumes a similar role for the Cavaliers, and like Thompson,ย he too is holding opponents to under 41 percent shooting in the playoffs. But he doesn't even come close to rivaling his counterpart on the offensive end.
Chasing around James Harden for long stretches took a lot out of Thompson in the Western Conference Finals, and his offensive energy was visibly drained. He cleared 45 percent shooting just once in five contests, and when he was finally rolling in Game 5, he took a knee to the head.
Thompson is no longer a three-and-D specialist. He posts up, attacks off the dribble and moves the ball far more than he did while playing under Mark Jackson. And, yeah, he's still a spot-up killer.ย
More than 43 percent of his shot attempts are coming as standstill opportunities, of which he's drilling 48.1 percent.
Basically, this individual sparring pits a two-way star against a specialist who isn't even shooting 40 percent from the floor. Identifying the victor isn't rocket scienceโor even a matter of second-grade math.
Edge: Warriors
Small Forward: LeBron James vs. Harrison Barnes
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With all due respect to postseason Harrison Barnes, a completely different animal compared to regular-season Harrison Barnes, LeBron James is LeBron James.
Injuries to Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving have forced James to ferry the Cavaliers in ways reminiscent of his first go-round in Cleveland. His 36.4 percent usage rate ties a playoff career high, and he's logging more than 40 minutes per postseason tilt for theย ninth time of his career.
Bearing that cross has seldom looked pretty. And that's what makes it so special.ย
James is shooting a career-worst 17.6 percent from beyond the arc. He's grappled with his mid-range game as well, connecting on just 32.7 percent of his long twos.
But he's also averaging an unfathomable 27.6 points, 10.4 rebounds and 8.3 assists through 14 playoff outings. The only other player to match those statistical benchmarks: Oscar Robertson.
Defenses are throwing two, three, sometimes four bodies on him just to impedeโnot stop, but impedeโhis forays into the paint.ย When they succeed, James is punishing them by firing bullets to one of Cleveland's orbiting marksmenโgenerally wide-open opportunities his running mates are nailing.
Barnes, in all fairness, poses an interesting defensive matchup. He'll be one of many different looks the Warriors give James, and at 6'8", he's artfully strong, boasting just enough mass to provide some pushback on post-ups.
Counterpoint: LeBron James is still LeBron James.
Edge: Cavaliers
Power Forward: Tristan Thompson vs. Draymond Green
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Tristan Thompson has provided an unexpected impetus since Kevin Love went down. He doesn't have the same offensive range, but he's jumped into the starting lineup alongside Timofey Mozgov and set well-placed screens that have helped the Cavaliers create separation on and off the ball.
Beyond that, he's been a relative beast on the glass, grabbing nearly 10 rebounds per game, including four on the offensive end.
Draymond Green is just, you know, better.
Although Green can't buy a three-pointer on offense (26.4 percent shooting from deep), his playmaking (5.3 assists) remains instrumental. He's flinging passes from the high post and whipping the ball around the perimeter when stationed behind the rainbow.
That poses a problem for Thompson on the defensive end, as Fear the Sword's Justin Rowan writes:ย
"Green possesses a skill-set that Thompson hasn't had to contend with much in the playoffs. While Paul Millsap possessed some of the same abilities to stretch the floor as Green, he didn't have the same vision as a passer and is not nearly as mobile. He also plays more of an inside-out game, whereas Green will likely play outside more. This negates Thompson's height advantage and lures part of Cleveland's rim protection out of the paint.
"
Guarding multiple positions has admittedly stifled Green's ability to hassle shots. Opponents are shooting 44.7 percent against him, up from 39.1 percent during the regular season.
But his defensive value has never truly relied on conventional metrics. That he can switch to each one of the five positions makes life so much easier on his Warriors brethren.
Which isn't to say conventional metrics don't like Green.
In the 163 minutes he's been on the bench, Golden State is being outscored by 8.5 points per 100 possessions. He is the only player the Warriors have a negative net rating without.
Not Klay Thompson. Not Stephen Curry. Green.
Edge: Warriors
Center: Timofey Mozgov vs. Andrew Bogut
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Timofey Mozgov is playing sensational basketball ahead of the Finals.
No, he's not filling up the box score with double-doubles. But the Cavaliers' defensive revivalโmisleading though it may beโis made possible by his staunch rim-protection.
Opponents are shooting 40.7 percent at the iron when he's in the vicinity and just 39.2 percentย against him in general. And when he steps off the hardwood, that newly alive Cavaliers defense turns to mush.
Anything Mozgov can do, however, Andrew Bogut does better.
Plus, he does some stuff Mozgov cannot.
Bogut is holding opponents to 39.5 percent shooting at the rim while contesting more point-blank opportunities overall. The Warriors' stingy defense doesn't regress to disastrous consequence without him, but his rotations on dribble drives, as well as off-ball slashes, keep the team from having to abandon rival shooters.
Unlike Mozgov, Bogut is versatile enough to eliminate the shot-blocking prowess of his positional adversary.ย He doesn't shoot a ton of jumpersโ7.5 percent of his attempts are coming outside of 10 feetโnor is he especially efficient when he lets one fly. But his passing from inside the elbow will force Mozgov to play him straight up rather than chase blocks.
Coach Steve Kerr is also wont to use him as a secondary playmaker off high screens. Bogut will draw Mozgov out of the paint when he runs up to create separation for Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson.
Both centers will see their playing time limited if their respective coaches decide to run small or, in the Warriors' case, super small.ย And as far as the Cavaliers are concerned, anythingย that gets Bogut off the floor is a good thing.
Edge: Warriorsย
Benches
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Reason No. 8,994 why the Warriors are so scary: They have depth. Serious depth. The kind of depth at which Cleveland can only look longingly and begrudgingly.
Matthew Dellavedova and J.R. Smith are legitimate weapons, and each has come up big at different times through the first three rounds. James Jones has even caught fire for a couple of seconds.
Let's be real, though: Ray Allen isn't walking through that door. The Cavaliers bench ranks in the bottom five of offensive and defensive efficiency, according to HoopsStats.com, and it doesn't even begin to rival the proven commodities riding Golden State's pine.
Shaun Livingston is long and fast and wily and will probably spend time guarding LeBron James.
Andre Iguodala is still finding nylon on spot-up threes and saw more time on James than any other Warriors player during the regular season, according to SportVU matchup data (h/t John Schuhmann of NBA.com).
Festus Ezeli is actually playing and grabbing 14.1 percent of his team's own misses when on the floor.
Kind-of-sort-of Sixth Man of the Year candidate Marreese Speights is nearing a return after suffering a strained calf muscle, per the San Jose Mercury News' Jeff Faraudo.
David Lee is a two-time All-Star and doesn't play.
So, yeah, let's move on.
Edge: Warriors
Coaching
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Two rookie head honchos collide in this NBA Finals matchup, suggesting that both sides are on equal footing.
They're not.
David Blatt is officially underrated. Coach/general manager/owner/star player LeBron James gets a lion's share of the credit for what the Cavaliers are doing, as he should. But Blatt has made phenomenal adjustments through and through and been flexible enough to deviate from his passing-packed ideals to let James run the show.
Dating back to the regular season, he's made decisions not even veteran sideline wanderers would dare to make. From benching Kevin Love during key fourth-quarter runs to sitting James and limiting his minutes, he's walked the walk.
As James told reporters, per ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin: "Being a rookie coach in the NBA, being able to take his team to the Finals, I think he's done a hell of a job."
Indeed, Blatt's understated sideline sagacity makes this a fightโone that Steve Kerr still wins.
Golden State's chief is a whiz at making mid-game and -series adjustments himself. He's tinkered with the Warriors rotations more than any other coach charged with the well-being of a 67-win contender would, and those off-the-cuff changes have proved effective.
Look back no further than the Warriors' Round 2 win over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies packed the paint and pounded the ball down low, slaughtering the pace and displacing the Warriors from their offensive comfort zone.
Kerr responded by trotting out Draymond Green at center and evicting Memphis' bigs from the restricted area. The Warriors rattled off three straight victories and won the series.
It doesn't hurt that, in addition to employing defensive maven Ron Adams, the Warriors now technically have two head coaches. Associate head coach Alvin Gentry will assume control of the New Orleans Pelicans after the Finals, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein.
Mostly, though, Kerr and his staff have earned their standing as the brains behind this year's championship favorite.
Edge: Warriors
Stats courtesy ofย Basketball-Reference.comย andย NBA.comย unless otherwise cited.
Danย Favaleย covers theย NBAย for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter:ย @danfavale.ย
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