Dan Henderson vs. Tim Boetsch: A Full Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC Fight Night 68 was supposed to feature Daniel Cormier vs. Ryan Bader, but after Cormier replaced Jon Jones at UFC 187, the company put a new main event in place.
Former PRIDE welterweight and middleweight champion Dan Henderson will take on No. 13-ranked contender Tim Boetsch in a middleweight tilt to headline the New Orleans card.
Henderson lost his last two outings to Daniel Cormier and Gegard Mousasi and will try to revitalize his career one last time Saturday night. Boetsch remains a ranked middleweight, but he is 2-4 in his last six fights. This would appear to be both men's last hope at significance in the division.
This is a fight between two men in desperate need of a win. It does not hold much divisional importance, but it will mean a lot for their careers.
Their backs are against the wall. Could that produce an exciting brawl? Let's break down the UFC Fight Night 68 main event between Henderson and Boetsch.
Striking
1 of 5
I should not lean Henderson here, but I do.
He often falls into being one-dimensional. He starts to look for a spot for his big right hand, and everything else goes out the window. On top of that, he has suffered knockouts in recent fights to Vitor Belfort and Mousasi.
Boetsch has had some bright spots with his striking in the past few years. Even still, it is mostly his power shots that are the focus.
Defensively, Henderson is a little bit better than Boetsch—or he can be, at least. Henderson has shared the cage with some of the most lethal strikers in MMA history and has held his own in many of those fights. That has started to change, as Father Time finally appears to be catching up to him.
I give Henderson a slight advantage on the feet because his defense should be a little bit better. Offensively, they are both power strikers without much flair. That should make it easier for Henderson to win the stand-up.
Edge: Henderson
Grappling
2 of 5
If you were to look at their credentials, you would immediately say Henderson is the better grappler. And if this were 1993, you would be right.
But it's not.
Henderson's MMA grappling is not great. It is as simple as that.
He has not kept up with the times, and his once Olympic-level wrestling is no longer up to snuff. Boetsch is a solid grappler in his own right, and he is a bit more athletic than Henderson at this stage in his career.
Their FightMetric numbers are close, and I'm essentially favoring the younger, more athletic fighter in this contest. Henderson may end up outgrappling Boetsch in this fight, but what has he done recently to make you think that is a foregone conclusion? Nothing.
Boetsch will be the one who starts looking for takedowns in this fight. Even if he fails, he will win the positional battle against the fence.
Edge: Boetsch
Submissions
3 of 5
Henderson is not a submission specialist. Throughout years of training he no doubt has some in his arsenal, but that isn't his game. Boetsch, on the other hand, actively looks for opportunities to finish by submission.
The last time Henderson won via submission was 1999, and that was by way of a knee to the body. His last legitimate submission? A 1997 win over Eric Smith by guillotine.
I don't expect Boetsch or Henderson to be successful with submissions this weekend, but Boetsch will be the one who tries to find the openings.
He is far more active with his jiu-jitsu from both top and bottom. If Henderson isn't careful, Boetsch could finish him with a submission. He has a tight grip. I don't expect a submission, but it should be a concern for Henderson.
Edge: Boetsch
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X-Factors
4 of 5
Boetsch's X-Factor: Athleticism
It's not often you can say Boetsch has an athletic advantage in the middleweight division, but on Saturday, he will have such an edge.
How big of a role will that play?
He doesn't get the credit he deserves a lot of the time, and this could be a chance for him to exploit Henderson's lack of movement. Boetsch won't be out there looking like Dominick Cruz or Demetrious Johnson, but he can outmaneuver a stationary Henderson.
Boetsch's quickness, in comparison to Henderson's, may be a key difference this weekend.
Henderson's X-Factor: His Chin
He once had one of the most fabled chins in MMA, but is that gone?
Everyone's chin goes at some point. Henderson has been knocked out twice in recent years and was hurt several times against Shogun Rua. It has to be a concern. Boetsch carries a lot of power in his hands, and if he connects flush, that could signal the end of the legend's career.
With his other skills diminishing, Henderson needs his chin to hold up. I am not sure it can.
Prediction
5 of 5
This will be a closely contested fight.
These two are evenly matched, and both will try to work their stand-up rather than seek takedowns. That plays a little more into Henderson's favor. And that is why I take him.
Both men have the power to finish the fight. We know that. Is it likely? No. This fight will end up being more about game plans and who can steal rounds. It shouldn't be this way, but judging in MMA still makes me favor a fan-favorite veteran on the scorecards.
I am not suggesting that the fix is in, or that there'll be a lot of chicanery with the judges. But I am confident that they will look at Henderson through rose-colored glasses.
Boetsch has to clearly win rounds. Henderson doesn't.
I'm not confident enough in Boetsch to win three of five in clear fashion. I'll take Henderson in a close and potentially controversial decision.
Prediction: Henderson defeats Boetsch by decision.
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