Belmont Stakes 2015: Analyzing Odds for Favorites and Longshots
The 2015 Belmont Stakes is less than a week away and the Triple Crown buzz is strong. Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner American Pharoah is the heavy favorite to win the race and break the 37-year Triple Crown drought.
Here's a look at the latest odds, per Odds Shark:
- American Pharoah 5-6
- Frosted 11-2
- Materiality 13-2
- Carpe Diem 12-1
- Mubtaahij 16-1
- Madefromlucky 16-1
- Tale of Verve 22-1
- Keen Ice 28-1
- Frammento 40-1
- The Truth or Else 50-1
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By now, most of us know American Pharoah outlasted Firing Line and fellow Bob Baffert-trainee Dortmund to win the Kentucky Derby. We also know that American Pharoah overcame a rail position and a muddy track to run away with the Preakness Stakes.
The variety of ways the horse has won is what likely has oddsmakers tabbing him as the favorite to make history. However, there are notable contenders near the top and bottom of the odds table.
Frosted 11-2
After winning the Wood Memorial, hopes were fairly high for Kieran McLaughlin's horse heading into the Kentucky Derby. Frosted finished a mildly disappointing fourth, but one could suggest that the late-charging horse could get a better result on a longer track.
That could be the reason Frosted is seen as one of the primary threats to thwart American Pharoah's run at history. His recent work in preparation for the Belmont is also likely playing a role in his favorable odds.
"Ahead of the June 6 Belmont Stakes, Frosted, fourth in the Kentucky Derby, may have impressed the most. Moving in company for the second straight week with Tamarkuz, the Kiaran McLaughlin trainee finished just ahead of his older workmate. The pair went four furlongs in 47.84 seconds.
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McLaughlin was pleased with his horse's work as well. Per Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form, the horse's trainer added:
"It couldn't have gone better. We're all set.
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Considering Frosted didn't run in the Preakness, he should have fresh legs.
Materiality 13-2
Materiality is one of three Todd A. Pletcher-trained horses in the field. The Belmont will be just the fifth race the horse will run this year, and he's won all but one of those starts. The only exception was the Derby, where he finished sixth.
Pletcher's horses are routinely held out of the Preakness if they don't win the Derby, and like Frosted, the additional rest could make Materiality all the more formidable.
Pletcher will be hoping Materiality can produce a performance more in line with what he did prior to falling way short of the top three at Churchill Downs.
Carpe Diem 12-1
Another Pletcher horse that fell flat at the Derby is Carpe Diem. While not as impressive leading up to Triple Crown season as Materiality, Carpe Diem won his first two races as a three-year-old leading up to the Derby.
Unfortunately, he was 10th at Churchill Downs and didn't run at the Preakness.
The talent is there, but it's hard to get behind this horse after such a disappointing showing to kick off the Triple Crown season. Still, he might be worth a slight investment as a 12-1 underdog to at least show in Elmont, New York.
Tale of Verve 22-1
Known primarily as a sprinter, Dallas Stewart's Tale of Verve is a live underdog at 22-1. The horse finished second at the Preakness and could really surprise people if he displays a bit more endurance than expected.
Per the Baltimore Sun, Tale of Verve went five furlongs in 59.02 seconds during his prep work for the Belmont. That was the fastest time at that distance.
He could gas out shortly after the 1 1/16 mile he's used to running, but he could also shock us with a performance that lands him one of the top three spots.
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