Belmont Stakes 2015: Predictions for Outcome If American Pharoah Fails

American Pharoah looks like a super horse, but the same could be said for the 12 other horses that won the first two legs of the Triple Crown before falling short in the Belmont Stakes since Affirmed captured the prestigious honor in 1978.

A solid win in the Kentucky Derby followed by a much stronger, seven-length victory in the Preakness Stakes would seem to indicate that the Bob Baffert-trained colt is peaking and prepared to run a sensational race at Belmont Park on Saturday. But there are no guarantees in horse racing.

Spectacular Bid appeared to be in top form 36 years ago as he approached the final jewel of the Triple Crown, but he stepped on a safety pin in the days before the race and that seemingly small injury prevented him firing and he finished out of the money. 

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Trainer Bob Baffert watched American Pharoah gallop at @ChurchillDowns Sunday. Now you can watch: https://t.co/UZYj2G01FB @BelmontStakes

— Churchill Downs (@ChurchillDowns) May 31, 2015"

So what happens in this year's race if American Pharoah (5-6, according to OddsShark) steps on a pin? What if he runs poorly or struggles for any reason? How will the race play out if the Belmont Stakes favorite is not a factor once the gate opens?

It would be foolish to overlook Frosted (11-2) in this race under any circumstances after he rallied to finish fourth in the Kentucky Derby after getting shuffled back in the pack and finding himself in 15th place. If Frosted can get off to a better start and find himself in the middle of the pack by the half-mile mark, this Kiaran McLaughlin-trained colt should find himself in an excellent position to launch a winning run.

The problem is the 1 ½-mile distance of this classic rate. If all goes well for Frosted, he could get to the top by the 1 ¼-mile mark, but will he last that final 440 yards? If the answer is yes, Frosted has an excellent chance of winning this race. 

Frosted had a sharp half-mile workout May 29 that impressed veteran horse racing analyst Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form. "This was the best I've seen of Frosted either prior to or since the Derby," Welsch wrote.

Horse	Odds
American Pharoah	5-6
Frosted	11-2
Materiality	13-2
Carpe Diem	12-1
Mubtaahij	16-1
Madefromlucky	16-1
Taleofverve	22-1
Keen Ice	28-1
Frammento	40-1
The Truth or Else	50-1

Todd Pletcher once again has a serious contender in the Belmont in the form of Materiality (13-2). Like Frosted, Materiality ran poorly in the Kentucky Derby, as he did not like being part of the huge 18-horse field and looked uncomfortable early in the race. However, despite the poor start, Materiality rallied to finish sixth in the race.

The big advantage for Materiality and Frosted is that both of them are well-rested, since they did not travel to Baltimore and race in the Preakness. Pletcher felt removing the horse would give him the best chance of winning at Belmont Park, so Materiality should be ready to run his best race on Saturday.

Pletcher will also send Carpe Diem (12-1) to the post in the Belmont Stakes, and while this long shot had a poor race in the Kentucky Derby, in which he finished 10th, he should not be overlooked. Carpe Diem has won a couple of impressive races, such as the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes, and he has the pedigree to run the long-distance race without losing his grip down the stretch.

Additionally, Carpe Diem has the kind of tactical speed that should allow him to stay fairly close to the leaders before making his move. Horses that don't have to rally from far behind are more likely to finish strongly than those who get used up on the far turn or at the top of the stretch.

Madefromlucky (16-1) is the third Pletcher horse in the race, and if all circumstances break right in the race, he could have a chance. Madefromlucky is a grinder, which means he should be able to work his way from the back of the pack and get himself into contention.

However, for that to happen, he needs a speed duel to take its toll on the leaders in the first half of the race. He can run past tiring horses, but if the early front-runners don't burn themselves out, Madefromlucky will have a difficult time catching them.

Rob Carr/Getty Images

Mubtaahij (16-1) is another horse who was unimpressive in the Kentucky Derby. He was able to save ground throughout the race, but he never made a move to get close to the leaders. Mubtaahij should be fairly close to the lead through the first half of the race, but he does not appear to have the pedigree to stay in contention for 1 ½ miles.

Tale of Verve (22-1) finished second to American Pharoah in the Preakness, as he was not bothered by the rain and messy track at Pimlico. If he is going to run another impressive race here, he is probably going to need another poor day weather-wise to show off his talent. Tale of Verve can run with the early leaders in those conditions, and if he gets out in front, he will have a chance to put a scare into the other contenders.

This should be American Pharoah's race, since his current form is strong. However, if he fails to run at his best, long-shot players will have their day with this finish in the Belmont Stakes:

1. Frosted

2. Materiality

3. Carpe Diem