Predicting Fantasy Football's Biggest Draft-Day Steals in 2015

Value.

It's the name of the game in fantasy football. Get good value with your fantasy draft picks, and you'll be setting your team up nicely for a playoff run.

Get great value, and that playoff run could become a fantasy championship.

With OTAs underway and fantasy draft season just around the corner, fantasy owners far and wide will be scouring player rankings and average draft position data trying to find draft-day targets with the potential to vastly outperform their price tag.

Well, we've already done the legwork for you. And the homework. Even the drywall work.

OK, maybe not that last one. Believe me, as a drywall hanger I'm a fine sportswriter.

I may not be able to finish your man cave, but I can help you add a trophy to the case in it, and with that in mind, here are some of the biggest potential fantasy value picks of 2015.

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Average Draft Position: QB8 (60th overall)

The 2014 season wasn't overly kind to Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton.

Ankle surgery early in 2014 wiped out most of Newton's offseason. It showed once the fifth-year pro hit the field. In addition to missing two games, Newton's 3,127 passing yards were a career low. So was his 18 touchdown passes. And his 539 rushing yards. And Newton's five rushing scores.

Newton also finished 17th among fantasy quarterbacks in NFL.com default scoring, easily the worst fantasy campaign of his career.

Well, Newton's healthy as OTAs get underway this year in Charlotte, and he told ESPN.com's David Newton that he's confident he'll rebound in 2015:

"

I say this with the most humility, but I don’t think nobody has ever been who I’m trying to be. Nobody has the size, nobody has the speed, nobody has the arm strength, nobody had the intangibles that I’ve had.

I’m not saying I’m the one-on-one type of person that this league will never see again. No, I’m not saying that. Hear me out. I’m just saying that so much of my talents have not been seen in one person.

"

OK, so he's really confident.

That confidence aside, there's plenty of room for optimism where Newton is concerned. A healthy Newton means a more mobile Newton, and running the ball has always been a big part of the big man's fantasy value.

The Panthers also added another weapon in the passing game for Newton with the selection of Michigan wideout Devin Funchess in the 2015 NFL draft.

Add in the fact that prior to last season Newton had never finished lower than sixth among fantasy quarterbacks in a season, and at his current price tag the 26-year-old looks like a great target for fantasy owners who like to wait to draft a starter under center.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Miami Dolphins

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Average Draft Position: QB13 (97th overall)

In many respects, the savvy fantasy owner is a speculative fantasy owner.

Granted, tabbing fantasy breakouts before they happen can be an inexact science. However, with some players the writing is on the proverbial wall.

Take Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill, for example. In each of Tannehill's three seasons in the National Football League, both his productivity and his level of play have improved.

Last year, Tannehill passed for over 4,000 yards, posted a passer rating of over 90 and finished as a top-10 fantasy option at QB.

This year, Tannehill gets a completely overhauled cadre of receivers to throw to. Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline and Charles Clay are out. Greg Jennings, Kenny Stills, rookie DeVante Parker and Jordan Cameron are in.

As former Dolphins quarterback David Garrard told the NFL Network (via Keith Beebe of SB Nation), he expects to Tannehill to continue his ascension in 2015:

"

When I hurt my knee after being named the starter (in 2012), he was a rookie. And I remember coming into the offensive meeting room the next day, and he was just taking everybody through plays; he was in command; he was strong. I really have a lot of respect for him and his ability. He's a great athlete.

"

If Garrard is right and Tannehill continues to improve in his fourth NFL season, then that high-end QB2 fantasy asking price is going to look plenty good in hindsight.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

Average Draft Position: RB30 (75th overall)

2014 was a tale of two very different seasons for running back LeGarrette Blount.

It started off rocky, to say the least. Blount was arrested for marijuana possession before the season. The 28-year-old didn't fit in with the Pittsburgh Steelers, and after 11 games, 65 carries and one sideline tantrum, Blount was shown the door.

The sixth-year veteran landed back in New England, where he spent the previous season, and by the time the dust had settled Blount's between-the-tackles banging was a key part of the Patriots' run to a win in Super Bowl XLIX.

Now, after both Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen departed in free agency, Blount appears to be the unquestioned lead back in Beantown. And in the opinion of Bleacher Report's David Guidera, that bodes well for fantasy owners:

"

He is a lock for New England’s RB1 with Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen out of the picture. Brandon Bolden and Jonas Gray are purely backups who will only be fantasy-relevant on opening night while Blount sits out.

He is currently coming off the board at the start of the seventh round in 12-team standard leagues. Take Blount confidently in the fifth or sixth, especially if you spent earlier picks on other positions.

Either way, the relatively fresh 28-year-old will be a solid RB2 in 2015 for a bargain RB3 price.

"

Yes, trusting any Patriots running back in fantasy football requires a certain level of intestinal fortitude, and Blount's one-game suspension to start the year is a concern.

However, any running back that can be had for less than retail price is worth taking a hard look at.

Joseph Randle, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Dave Martin/Associated Press

Average Draft Position: RB31 (82nd overall)

In 2014, the Dallas Cowboys won the NFC East for the first time since 2009, thanks in large part to a ground game powered by DeMarco Murray, who led the NFL with 1,845 rushing yards.

Well, Murray left for Philadelphia in free agency, and the Cowboys surprisingly did very little to replace him in either the draft or free agency.

Yes, the team did sign a pair of running backs in Darren McFadden and Ryan Williams, but when OTAs began it was third-year pro Joesph Randle who took the first-team reps. As Rob Phillips of the team's website reports, offensive coordinator Scott Linehan thinks big things could be in store in 2015:

"

I don’t think there’s any reason he can’t have a real productive year for us. It’s really too hard to say what the production’s going to be and who’s going to get it. We’ll let that play itself out as the year goes on, but certainly he’s going to have more opportunities to have a more significant role for us and I can’t wait to see him do it. He’s really working hard and doing a great job of getting himself prepared, and I think the competition we have at the running back position is really healthy and is really going to help us.

"

Randle, for his part, certainly isn't shying away from the long shadow cast by Murray's big year in 2014:

"

[Murray] had a good year last year. But I got to sit back and watch a lot and I felt like there was a lot of meat left on the bone. I’m going to try to go out there and grind as hard as I can.

"

The idea that Randle could somehow one-up Murray's record-setting season is just kooky. Almost as kooky as believing that McFadden—who has made it through 16 games once in seven years and hasn't averaged even 3.5 yards per carry since 2011—is somehow miraculously going to morph into the back who topped 1,000 yards on the ground in 2010.

If you want a piece of the Dallas backfield in 2015, Randle is the player to target.

Ryan Mathews, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

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Average Draft Position: RB43 (123rd overall)

Granted, at first glance there isn't a whole lot to get excited about with Philadelphia Eagles running back Ryan Mathews.

After all, the 27-year-old Mathews missed 10 games a season ago with a knee injury. In the City of Brotherly Love, Mathews is left staring up at DeMarco Murray, who will serve as the Eagles' lead back after pacing the NFL with 1,845 rushing yards last season.

However, Murray also took one heck of a pounding racking up that yardage. Murray carried the ball a staggering 392 times in the regular season alone last year, and the track record of running backs the year following a season with over 370 carries, is, um, well—they have a name for it.

"The Curse of 370."

So long as Murray stays healthy, Mathews' main job will likely be to spell him. There may be a big game or two if the Eagles get staked to a lead and just pound away on the ground, but Mathews' fantasy value will be minimal.

However, if the curse claims another victim and Murray (who has a fairly extensive injury history) goes down, then we're talking about a player who topped 1,200 yards on the ground as recently as 2013 carrying the ball for an Eagles offense that was ninth in the NFL in rushing last season.

At the very least, fantasy owners who attempt to buck the curse with Murray would be well-served to acquire Mathews as insurance.

Unless, of course, a shark comes along and snatches up Mathews first.

Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Average Draft Position: WR25 (55th overall)

Two years ago, San Diego Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen finished as fantasy football's top rookie receiver, topping 1,000 yards and reeling in eight touchdown passes.

Last year, however, Allen's receptions were up, but his yardage and touchdown totals were way down. So was his fantasy value. In 2013, Allen finished the season 18th in fantasy points among wide receivers in leagues that awarded a point for catches. Last year, that number free-fell to 35th.

Allen himself admitted to Ricky Henne of the team's website that his play last year was subpar:

"

I was average. From what I expect of myself, it was average. My focus this offseason was just getting back to the basics. Focusing on fundamentals and doing what I do. Playing my ball and not trying to do too much. It was tough being out at the end of last year when the guys were fighting, but everything happens for a reason. I will definitely do whatever is best for the team, and that could mean more in the slot. That would be good. Stevie (Johnson) and I can do some work there, so I will try to do the best I can be. For me, the biggest difference when I get in the slot is that you don’t have just a one-way option. You can go pretty much both ways on the release, and on the outside, if you have an outside route you go outside and inside route you go inside.

"

Mind you, this isn't to say that Allen is going to finish as a top-10 fantasy wideout in 2015. That would be pushing it, especially given Philip Rivers' penchant for spreading the ball around.

However, when you can get the top wide receiver in a Rivers-led offense for the price of a fantasy WR3 in 10-team leagues, that's an opportunity worth exploring.

Torrey Smith, WR, San Francisco 49ers

George Nikitin/Associated Press

Average Draft Position: WR37 (95th overall)

Torrey Smith has never exactly been a fantasy gang-buster. Not once in the past four years has Smith finished a season among the top 20 fantasy wideouts in PPR formats. Of course, not once in the past four years has Smith finished a season outside the top 30 fantasy receivers either.

This year, the 26-year-old changed mailing addresses, bolting the Baltimore Ravens for their opponent in Super Bowl XLVII.

And according to Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee, the San Francisco 49ers are hopeful that Smith can help reverse some recent vertical ineptitude on the team's part:

"

Guess which NFL team attempted the fewest passes of 20 or more yards to wide receivers over the past four seasons? Drumroll ... it was the 49ers.

They had 133 such throws, according to statistics from Pro Football Focus, which is less than half the total for downfield-attacking teams like the Giants (277), Ravens (276) and Steelers (274).

That philosophy changed this year when the 49ers signed Torrey Smith, the most expensive free-agent acquisition in general manager Trent Baalke’s tenure. The hope is that the combination of Smith’s speed and Colin Kaepernick’s big right arm create more room for runners and pass catchers underneath.

"

Granted, this is one of the more speculative calls on this list, especially given how badly Kaepernick regressed throwing the ball last year.

However, if all Smith does is match his production from the past several years in Baltimore, he'll be a pretty good bargain.

If he can bump his yardage up over the 1,000-yard mark without a huge regression from last season's 11 scoring grabs?

Then Smith will be a steal.

Nelson Agholor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Average Draft Position: WR43 (119th overall)

2014 was a banner year for rookie wide receivers.

Mike Evans of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Sammy Watkins of the Buffalo Bills wasted no time in living up to their first-round price tags. Jarvis Landry came from nowhere to become a surprise star for the Miami Dolphins. Odell Beckham of the New York Giants took the NFL by storm.

Now, this year's crop at the position may not be quite as loaded, but they're a deep and talented group in their own right. And a few of those youngsters have a chance to make a real fantasy impact right out of the gate, among them Nelson Agholor of the Philadelphia Eagles.

As Zach Berman of The Philadelphia Inquirer wrote, Agholor is eager to begin the next chapter of his football career: "I think I understand the way life works. I don't feel like I'm entitled to anything. Work like a peasant. That's the mind-set. My parents have raised us to be very humble and to understand everything in life you have to earn."

Well, it shouldn't be that hard for Agholor to earn significant snaps right out of the gate. After Jeremy Maclin departed the Eagles in free agency, the team's depth chart at wide receiver is unsettled.

Assuming the 6'0", 198-pounder fares well in camp, it isn't hard at all to imagine Agholor starting opposite Jordan Matthews in Week 1 for Chip Kelly's high-octane offense in Philly.

And if that's the case, Agholor isn't going to have too much trouble sailing right past that low-end fantasy WR4 price tag.

Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati Bengals

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Average Draft Position: TE23 (202nd overall)

It's a rough year for the tight end position in fantasy football.

After Rob Gronkowski of the New England Patriots, there's a huge drop-off. There's another one after the first six or seven options.

Simply put, there are more teams in your fantasy football league than there are dependable weekly starters at tight end in 2015.

And that means that teams who can find one late in drafts will either be at a significant advantage over their opponents or will be in possession of a valuable trade commodity.

Apparently, the fantasy community doesn't think that late value is going to come in the personage of Cincinnati's Tyler Eifert, whose second NFL season was derailed by shoulder and elbow injuries.

However, Eifert told Jim Owczarski of Cincinnati.com that he expects to be a full go for the beginning of training camp:

"

It's just hard when you're starting over physically. I lost a lot of weight (about 15 pounds), a lot of muscle. I couldn't really do anything there for three or four months. So just getting that back, getting back in the groove of lifting and getting strong, that's probably been the hardest part. As far as the plays and being in here with the guys, it feels like I never missed a beat. Being out here on the field today, it's kind of like riding a bike. Once you get back out there its all the same.

"

The Bengals thought enough of Eifert to select him in the first round back in 2013, and with Jermaine Gresham no longer in town, Eifert could be in for a substantial uptick in targets.

Besides, for what amounts to an 18th-round pick in 12-team leagues, what do you really have to lose?

Average draft position data courtesy of Fantasy Pros.