Belmont Stakes 2015: Latest Odds and Predictions for Favorites and Sleepers
Since Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978, a total of 13 horses have entered the Belmont Stakes with the same intentions only to leave empty-handed. American Pharoah will be the 14th, and he'll need to battle fatigue and a field of fresh-legged contenders in a lengthy 1 ½-mile race to buck that trend.
Pharoah showed his ability to overcome obstacles during his sparkling runs at Churchill Downs and Pimlico. His endurance was magnificent in the Kentucky Derby, as he covered plenty of additional ground by running the race on the outside. The colt's acceleration was second to none in the Preakness, as he jolted from the No. 1 gate to avoid traffic and move to the front, resulting in a wire-to-wire win.
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Those two attributes will be crucial to Pharoah's success at Belmont Park. But will they be enough to outlast the likes of Frosted and Materiality—two impressive colts that are rested after skipping the Preakness—over such a long distance? Let's predict the answer to that question and take a peek at the race's updated odds for each contender.
Belmont Stakes Odds and Predictions
| 1 | American Pharoah | 1-1 |
| 2 | Materiality | 15-2 |
| 3 | Frosted | 5-1 |
| 4 | Tale of Verve | 28-1 |
| 5 | Divining Rod | 25-1 |
| 6 | Carpe Diem | 16-1 |
| 7 | Mubtaahij | 14-1 |
| 8 | Madefromlucky | 22-1 |
| 9 | Conquest Curlinate | 33-1 |
| 10 | Keen Ice | 25-1 |
| 11 | Frammento | 50-1 |
All odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
Predictions Analysis
There we have it. American Pharoah goes on to take the Belmont Stakes. The reasoning behind this impressive colt ending the 37-year Triple Crown drought is simple: Through two races, he only seems to be getting stronger.
Many horse racing enthusiasts thought Pharoah wouldn't have enough left in the tank to take the Preakness following a grueling Kentucky Derby. Well, not only did he win at Pimlico, but he did so by seven lengths from a terrible starting position on a muddy track. Fatigue doesn't appear to be an issue going forward.
With the experience of trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Victor Espinoza in Pharoah's corner, we should expect an expertly prepared horse for the Belmont. It's likely that Pharoah will be pushed in the Triple Crown's third jewel, but there's no reason to go against the favorite at this point.
Materiality will likely give Pharoah a run for his money at Belmont Park. This Todd Pletcher-trained colt had a rough run in the Kentucky Derby, getting off to a slow start but finishing strong to take sixth place. Pletcher then elected to hold Materiality out of the Preakness in an effort to focus strictly on the Belmont.
The Florida Derby winner has shown an ability to maintain a brisk pace while salvaging enough stamina to make a big late-race run. With that in mind, Materiality's biggest advantage in the Belmont is his lack of racing—this will only be his fifth career appearance. Entering the Belmont well-rested makes this colt extremely dangerous.
Frosted rounds out the top three. This colt has been phenomenal at times; however, he remains a wild card due to inconsistent performances. In eight career races, he's accumulated two wins—most notably in the Wood Memorial—four runner-ups and two fourth-place finishes, including the Kentucky Derby.
The reason for Frosted's fourth-place finish in the Derby was his inability to get out front early—a tendency he's shown on several occasions. After falling well behind the lead pack early, Frosted had way too much ground to make up on his talented opposition. Despite his excellent closing ability, Frosted's slow starts will keep him from crossing the finish line first at Belmont Park.
Two sleepers to keep a keen eye on are Tale of Verve and Divining Rod. Both colts were impressive in the Preakness, finishing second and third, respectively. Divining Rod showed an ability to keep up with the lead pack over the majority of the race, while Tale of Verve's closing speed was incredible, rallying from way behind to finish second.
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