San Francisco 49ers: Creating the Blueprint for Optimal Offense in 2015

The San Francisco 49ers’ new coaching staff presumably spent the first part of the offseason creating the optimal offense to fit their personnel.

I never received my invitation to the coaches’ meetings—a clerical error, I’m sure. But if I had attended those meetings, I would have made the following five suggestions:

1. Commit to a run-heavy offense.

Colin Kaepernick can’t carry an NFL team with his arm. When throws more than 30 passes in a game, his record is 4-8.

That’s not a major knock against him. Only a handful of NFL quarterbacks can win consistently without a running game—Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Elite pocket passers.

Kaepernick isn’t an elite pocket passer, so the 49ers shouldn’t adopt a pass-first offense. They should stick to a run-first approach. Because when Kaepernick throws 30 or fewer passes in a game, his record in 21-6. That’s a winning percentage of .778.

Opposing defenses can stop Kaepernick if they can focus all of their attention on him. But if they have to focus their attention on stopping a dominant running game, Kaepernick is tough to beat.

2. Use the read-option as a changeup.

The Niners should keep the read-option in their playbook as long as Kaepernick is their quarterback.

But the Niners should not build their offense around that play. The read-option should be the changeup, not the fastball.

The more the Niners ask Kaepernick to carry the ball, the more they expose him to potentially career-threatening hits. A team should not expose its quarterback too often. Exposing the quarterback is like a chess player exposing his king. He’s asking to pay the price.

The element of surprise is essential with the read-option. If a team uses that play at the right time, it can win the game. The Niners should save the read-option for the fourth quarter when the offense faces a third down it absolutely must convert.

That’s when the Seahawks tend to use the play. They protect Russell Wilson most of the game, then they let him keep the ball once or twice in key moments. That’s a sensible blueprint.

3. Emphasize the play-action passing game.

According to Pro Football Focus, in 2013 Kaepernick attempted 297 passes without play action and 119 passes with play action—a 2.5-to-1 ratio. His passer rating was 91.6, and he won 12 games during the regular season.

In 2014, per PFF, Kaepernick attempted a whopping 383 passes without play action and only 95 passes with play action—roughly a 4-to-1 ratio. His passer rating dropped to 86.4, and he won only eight games. Kaepernick’s success is tied to the play-action passing game.

The Niners had a good reason for dialing it back last season. Starting right tackle Anthony Davis missed nine games, and the Niners had a subpar running game without him. It averaged only 3.9 yards with Jonathan Martin at right tackle.

The running game must be a threat for the play-action passing game to work. As long as Davis is healthy, the Niners running game should be a threat. The coaches should make sure to call about one play-action pass for every two non-play-action passes next season.

4. Re-emphasize 22 personnel.

When the 49ers went to the Super Bowl in 2013, their best personnel grouping was “22”—two running backs, two tight ends and one wide receiver.

It was a kick-butt, power-running group. It could be slow and methodical, or it could score a touchdown in one play. The Niners' bruising 22 personnel grouping was a threat to score from anywhere on the field because both tight ends—Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker—were fast.

Walker signed with the Tennessee Titans in 2013. Without him, the Niners’ 22 personnel groupings were far less effective, because they had only one deep-threat—Vernon Davis.

This offseason, the Niners signed a second deep threat: wide receiver Torrey Smith. Smith is the perfect receiver for 22 personnel.

If the safeties cheat toward the line of scrimmage to stop the run, Smith will run right past them and catch a long touchdown pass—1-and-out. If the safeties respect Smith and line up deep, the Niners will bulldoze the opposing defensive front and run the ball at will.

This grouping allows the Niners to threaten the heart of the defense and the back end simultaneously. It’s football’s equivalent to a knight fork.

5. Move the quarterback’s launch point once every four pass plays.

Teams sacked Kaepernick 52 times last season. Unacceptable. An athletic quarterback should not get sacked 9.8 percent of the time he attempts a pass like Kaepernick did in 2014.

The Niners can cut down on the amount of sacks Kaepernick takes simply by changing his launch point more frequently. He dropped straight back too often under former head coach Jim Harbaugh.

University of Florida head coach Jim McElwain likes to move the pocket once every four pass plays, according to Josh Norris of Rotoworld. I like McElwain’s style. Keep the other team guessing. Make them anxiously search for the quarterback. Don’t let them rush to a spot knowing he’ll be there waiting for them.

The Niners can move the pocket by calling simple sprints-outs, rollouts, bootlegs and waggles—plays in which the quarterback “breaks contain” of the offensive line (runs outside the tackles) and has a run-pass option, meaning he can throw the ball or tuck it and run.

And those aren’t the only ways to move the pocket. The Niners can call partial rollouts (“p. rolls") and partial waggles, where the quarterback does not break contain. Instead, he rolls, stops, sets his feet behind the inside hip of the offensive tackle and throws.

Plays like these will unlock the full potential of Kaepernick and the rest of the 49ers offense.

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