Belmont Stakes 2015: Predictions for Key Challengers to American Pharoah
The Belmont Stakes has seen 13 Triple Crown candidates fail to bring home the final jewel since Affirmed won the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont in 1978.
Many of those horses have been beaten by long shots, and that remains a possibility in this year's race.
However, if American Pharoah does not reach his goal, it's more likely that he will get beaten by one of the four other legitimate betting candidates in the race. The other six horses scheduled to run June 6—War Story opted out of the event Tuesday—all have odds of 22-1 or higher and don't appear to have the talent to beat the even-money favorite, per Odds Shark.
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However, Frosted (5-1), Materiality (15-2), Mubtaahij (14-1) and Carpe Diem (16-1) would all seem to have a more legitimate chance of stopping American Pharoah. Perhaps not a good chance because he appeared to improve in the Preakness off his Derby-winning performance, and recent reports in Blood-Horse indicate that American Pharoah's preparations for the Belmont are going extremely well.
Trainer Bob Baffert labeled American Pharoah's May 26 workout as "pretty spectacular."
| Horse | Odds | Inside Track |
| American Pharoah | 1-1 | Showed marked improvement in Preakness and has been training sharply |
| Frosted | 5-1 | Can chase front-runners down |
| Materiality | 15-2 | Tactical speed with strong trainer in Pletcher |
| Mubtaahij | 14-1 | Distance could be an issue in Belmont |
| Carpe Diem | 16-1 | Throw out Derby; distance runner could impress |
| Madefromlucky | 22-1 | Will try to grind down front-runners |
| Keen Ice | 25-1 | Beware the closer |
| Divining Rod | 25-1 | Has not distinguished himself to this point |
| Tale of Verve | 28-1 | Runs well in the rain |
| Conquest Curlinate | 33-1 | Excellent pedigree for the distance |
| Frammento | 50-1 | Trainer Zito should not be overlooked |
In this piece, we will look at the serious contenders and examine how they can challenge American Pharoah and keep him out of the winner's circle June 6.
Frosted had a very impressive run at the Kentucky Derby after getting shuffled back at the start. He was in 15th with just a half-mile to go when he started to turn it on. He ran on the extreme outside and passed horses on the far turn and down the stretch and ended up finishing fourth.
Frosted should not have as many horses to pass in the Belmont Stakes. He would seem to have an excellent chance if American Pharoah engages in any kind of speed duel or leaves the gate at too rapid a pace and starts to tire in the later stages of the race. If American Pharoah is allowed to run freely and easily at or near the front of the pack, it will be tough for Frosted to mount a serious challenge.
However, Frosted showed in some of his earlier races that he does have decent early speed, so he has a good chance of being closer to the front than he was in the Derby. If he is and he likes the Belmont Park track, he may have a shot at winning the race.
Materiality had won all three of his previous races before the Kentucky Derby, but he struggled to find his stride and was far back in the field for the majority of the race. However, even though it looked bad for him, he rallied with a powerful final quarter-mile and finished sixth.
In his three winning races, Materiality ran close to the front. He is not likely to get shuffled back in this race, and when he starts to hit his top gear, he may be a lot closer to the front-runners than he was in the Kentucky Derby.
Materiality also has distance running in his blood lines and a trainer in Todd Pletcher who has had a history of success in the Belmont Stakes. Eight of his horses have finished in the top three since 2006.
Mubtaahij had a dull effort in the Kentucky Derby, as he finished eighth and never made a real move to get close to the leaders. The crowded field is often a major obstacle for many horses in that race, so he should be far more comfortable in Belmont.
If Mubtaahij can run with the leaders for the first half of the 1 1/2-mile race, he just may gain the confidence to finish the race. However, Mubtaahij may not be able to remain at full speed in the closing stages of the stretch run, because he does not appear to be a great distance runner.
Carpe Diem is another Pletcher trainee, and he has had success this year in winning the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes. He did not fire in the Derby, but his earlier wins mean he should not be ignored.
He also has distance running in his background, and while the Belmont Stakes has favored those with tactical speed over late runners in recent years, the long stretch run could be inviting for him.
Bettors who are looking to beat American Pharoah would be strongly advised to consider Carpe Diem.
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