Re-Evaluating Mets' Top Draft Picks from the Past Decade
Every June, the MLB draft occurs, and that's when teams can select among the best high school and college talent in the country to add to their minor league systems. Some first-round picks will turn out great, while others will become busts and may not even make the major leagues.
Jon Matlack, Lee Mazzilli, Darryl Strawberry, Dwight Gooden and David Wright have been among the Mets' greatest first-round draft picks, while the biggest draft busts include Steve Chilcott, Shawn Abner, Paul Wilson and Lastings Milledge.
Over the past decade, the Mets have had some first-round draft picks turn out great, while others never made it to the major leagues. Here are some re-evaluations of the Mets' last 10 drafts' worth of first-round picks.
2005: RHP Mike Pelfrey
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In 2005, the Mets used the ninth overall pick on Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey quickly rose through the Mets' system and was in the major leagues by 2006. Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza and Clay Buchholz were among the eventual first-round picks whom the Mets passed on.
Pelfrey went 2-1 with a 5.48 ERA in four starts in 2006 and struggled in 2007 with a 3-8 record and a 5.57 ERA. He made 13 starts that year and 15 total appearances.
Pelfrey's breakout season came in 2008, which included a 13-11 record and a 3.72 ERA in 31 starts. He took a step back in 2009 with a 10-12 record and a 5.03 ERA.
Pelfrey's pattern of pitching well in even-numbered years continued in 2010. He went 15-9 with a 3.66 ERA in 33 starts. His number of wins and his ERA were career highs for him.
Pelfrey then struggled in 2011, going 7-13 with a 4.74 ERA in what would be his final full season with the Mets. He made three starts in 2012 before getting hurt and requiring Tommy John surgery, which ended both his season and his time with the Mets. He had a 2.29 ERA in the three starts and no decisions.
Pelfrey signed with the Twins prior to the 2013 season and went 5-13 with a 5.29 ERA in 29 starts. After the season, he re-signed with the Twins for two more seasons. In 2014, he was 0-3 with a 7.99 ERA in just five starts, as once again, he was slowed by injuries. So far in 2015, Pelfrey is 4-1 with a 2.77 ERA in nine starts.
Pelfrey had a few nice seasons for the Mets, but his career has not gone as well as others that were picked later in the draft.
Did Pelfrey's career pan out better than his draft-class peers? No.
2007: RHP Eddie Kunz, LHP Nathan Vineyard
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The Mets did not have their original 2007 first-round draft pick due to the signing of Moises Alou, but they gained two other picks for losing both Chad Bradford and Roberto Hernandez to free agency.
The first of those two picks was used on pitcher Eddie Kunz. Kunz only ended up making four major league appearances in his career, all with the Mets in 2008. In 2.2 innings pitched, he had a 13.50 ERA.
Their second pick was another pitcher, Nathan Vineyard, who has yet to make it to the major leagues. In fact, he has been out of baseball since 2008.
The Mets clearly could have done better in the first round of the 2007 draft.
Did Kunz's and Vineyard's careers pan out better than their draft-class peers? No.
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2008: 1B Ike Davis, 2B Reese Havens, RHP Brad Holt
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The Mets had a few first-round picks in 2008. The first came from the Braves after the Mets lost Tom Glavine. That pick would lead to the Mets selecting first baseman Ike Davis 18th overall. Four picks later, the Mets used their own first-round pick, 22nd overall, to take shortstop Reese Havens. Losing Glavine to the Braves helped the Mets gain a supplemental pick, as well, and they used it to select pitcher Brad Holt.
Davis was the Mets' primary first baseman from 2010-2013. He had a solid rookie season in 2010 with a .264 average, 19 home runs and 71 RBI. He finished seventh in NL Rookie of the Year voting. Davis then got off to a great start in 2011 with a .302 average, seven home runs and 25 RBI before suffering what would turn out to be a season-ending ankle injury.
Davis came back in 2012 and had what has been his career season thus far. Davis hit just .227 but set career highs with 32 home runs and 90 RBI. The future looked bright for Davis, but he struggled in 2013 with a .205 average, nine home runs and 33 RBI. He even was demoted midway through what was a lost season for him.
In 2014, Davis was traded to the Pirates. He ended up hitting .233 with 11 home runs and 51 RBI in 360 at-bats as the Pirates' primary first baseman.
In the 2015 offseason, Davis was traded again to the A's and is now their first baseman. He has been hitting .282 with two home runs and 11 RBI in 103 at-bats so far.
Both Havens and Holt never made it to the major leagues. Havens had retired by 2014, and Holt was released by the Mets in 2013.
Andrew Cashner, Jordan Lyles, Lance Lynn and Wade Miley were among the other 2008 first-round picks whom the Mets passed on.
For what was a rather weak 2008 draft, the Mets did reasonably well with Davis. They did not have the same luck with Havens and Holt.
Did Davis' career pan out better than his draft-class peers? Yes (to a certain degree).
Did Havens' and Holt's careers pan out better than their draft-class peers? No.
2010: RHP Matt Harvey
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In 2010, the Mets selected Matt Harvey with the seventh overall pick. Harvey is one of just 12 first-round picks from that draft to reach the major leagues. The Mets passed on players like Chris Sale and Christian Yelich. However, at this point, the Mets clearly made a great choice with Harvey.
Harvey reached the major leagues in 2012 and went 3-5 with a 2.73 ERA in 12 starts. He then had a sensational season in 2013 with a 9-5 record, 2.27 ERA and 191 strikeouts in 26 starts and 178.1 innings pitched. He was an All-Star and even got to start the game for the National League.
Unfortunately, Harvey's season ended in late August with an elbow injury that would require Tommy John surgery. As a result, Harvey missed all of the 2014 season. He finished fourth in the 2013 NL Cy Young Award voting but certainly could have won had he stayed healthy the entire season.
In his 2015 comeback, Harvey is 5-2 with a 2.91 ERA. He has 60 strikeouts in 58.2 innings pitched and has allowed just 10 walks. Clearly, Harvey has not missed a beat since the Tommy John surgery.
The Mets made an awesome selection with Harvey in 2010, who should be the Mets' ace for years to come.
Did Harvey's career pan out better than his draft-class peers? Yes.
2011: CF Brandon Nimmo, RHP Michael Fulmer
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The Mets selected outfielder Brandon Nimmo with their own first-round pick in 2011, which was 13th overall. Nimmo is currently playing for Double-A Binghamton and should be on track to make his major league debut within the next two or three seasons. After a breakout season last year that included a .278 average, 10 home runs, 51 RBI and 86 walks, Nimmo right now is hitting .297 with two home runs, nine RBI and 12 walks.
Nimmo was drafted right before the Marlins selected 2013 NL Rookie of the Year Jose Fernandez. Nimmo has yet to prove what he is capable of doing for the Mets in the future. For right now, the Mets clearly missed a golden opportunity to possibly have a second ace alongside Harvey.
Michael Fulmer was selected with a pick the Mets got for losing Pedro Feliciano to the Yankees. Like Nimmo, Fulmer is also on the Mets' Double-A Binghamton team and is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA in five starts this season. He went 6-11 with a 4.39 ERA in 2014.
Neither Nimmo nor Fulmer has made the major leagues yet, so concrete evaluations can't really be made about how they've done in comparison to their draft-class peers.
Did Nimmo's and Fulmer's careers pan out better than their draft-class peers? Too early to tell.
2012: SS Gavin Cecchini, C Kevin Plawecki
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In 2012, the Mets' first-round pick (12th overall) was used on shortstop Gavin Cecchini. The Mets passed on pitcher Michael Wacha, among others. However, Cecchini could turn into a solid shortstop in the future if all goes well.
With the Mets' current lack of major league depth at shortstop, the organization could possibly be counting on Cecchini to be a big part of the future. He is currently on the Mets' Double-A Binghamton team and is hitting .291 with four home runs and 20 RBI in 134 at-bats this season.
The Mets also had an additional pick for losing Jose Reyes to free agency. The Mets chose catcher Kevin Plawecki with that pick. Travis d'Arnaud's finger injury resulted in Plawecki being called up earlier than expected to the major leagues. Plawecki has struggled at the plate so far with a .214 average, two home runs and 10 RBI in 84 at-bats, and he will likely be demoted once d'Arnaud is healthy. As for Plawecki's future, he could become a trade chip if the right deal is presented to the Mets.
It's too early to see how Cecchini and Plawecki rank compared to others in their draft class, because only a handful of the draftees have even reached the major leagues.
Did Cecchini's and Plawecki's careers pan out better than their draft-class peers? Too early to tell.
2013: 1B Dominic Smith
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In the 2013 draft, the Mets selected first baseman Dominic Smith 11th overall. Smith right now is playing for the Mets' Single-A St. Lucie team. He is hitting .234 with 19 RBI in 124 at-bats. In 2014, he hit .271 with one home run and 44 RBI.
It's clearly too early to rank how well the Mets did with choosing Smith over others, being that very few players from the 2013 draft are even in the major leagues right now.
Did Smith's career pan out better than his draft-class peers? Too early to tell.
2014: LF Michael Conforto
10 of 10In the Mets' most recent draft, they selected outfielder Michael Conforto 10th overall. Conforto hit very well last season with Single-A Brooklyn. He batted .331 with three home runs and 19 RBI in 163 at-bats.
This season, with Single-A St. Lucie, Conforto is hitting .291 with seven home runs and 27 RBI in 175 at-bats. The 6'1" outfielder has a very bright future and should continue to rise rapidly through the Mets' farm system.
None of the 2014 first-round picks have reached the major leagues yet, so it's obviously too early to determine if the Mets did well in selecting Conforto, but with the numbers he is putting up, the Mets likely did well in this draft.
Did Conforto's career pan out better than his draft-class peers? Too early to tell.
All statistics shown are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
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