Fantasy Football Meets Math: QB, RB, WR Compared

It's here! The day I'm sure you have been waiting for! My analysis of Positional Averages for QB, RB & WR compared and broken down!

As a way of reminder, here are the previous articles with some preliminary analysis. Also, available below are full rankings of each position (as opposed to only the Top 51 previously provided).

Article: QB Breakdown PDF: QBs (Full)

Article: RB Breakdown PDF: RBs (Full)

Article: WR Breakdown PDF: WRs (Full)

So, as the numbers began to pour in, I let myself soak in the task at hand and prepare to provide useful analysis of what was in front of me. The main purpose of this entire expedition was to build off the Average Scoring article I wrote last month.

I'm not concerned about the actual scoring average of a player but instead their ranking compared to others at their positions. What I'm digging for are the players that most consistently outscore other players at their position. And on the larger scale, I want to find the position that provides me with the most stability from year to year.

This is THAT project. So, as a start, comparison situations were formulated to better understand the truth behind the numbers. What good are top-10 and top-20 numbers if their true meaning can't be cracked?

Three categories were created: Consistency, Drop Out & One Year Wonders.

Each of these categories was broken into specific cases & the total number of these cases for each position. Here is analysis for each of those positions. All "leaders" of a category will be marked bold.

Consistency (Note: In this section top 20 includes top 10)

		QBs	RBs	WRs
2 Years Consecutive Top 10:		10	10	9
3 Years Consecutive Top 10:		4	3	3
4 Years Consecutive Top 10:		3	1	1
5 Years Consecutive Top 10:		2	1	0

The first area of consistency is within the top 10. Perhaps to the surprise of some, the two-year numbers are all very consistent. The staggering drop off to three-year numbers is felt across each position and RBs, WRs complete the drop off into the four-year numbers.

The only five-year stud at RB is none other than LT2. Given the "hot air" media opinion on him is not very good, he is being treated as a lower (mid if lucky) first round pick. But he is the only player other than Peyton Manning & Drew Brees who has been able to finish within the top 10 each season. Looking into the top 20 numbers provides us with a even stronger look at the QB position.

		QBs	RBs	WRs
2 Years Consecutive Top 20:		26	22	19
3 Years Consecutive Top 20:		11	10	9
4 Years Consecutive Top 20:		7	4	4
5 Years Consecutive Top 20:		5	2	1

Once again, QBs come out on top in this category. It is interesting to note that five QBs could claim top-20 finishes through all five years yet only two WRs could claim a similar status.

Now this doesn't explain the complete story, some younger players have not been in the league long enough to make it much past three or four consecutive years but that will be left as analysis for a future article (trying to predict future long term studs). Right now, simply absorbing information is the goal. The WR & RB position seem neck and neck in the race for second place at the end of the consistency race. Looking into the drop-out rate however might shed more light on the two positions.

Drop Out (Note: In this section top 20 does not include top 10)

The Drop Out numbers provided below come in multiple forms: 1) Ranked players falling lower and 2) unranked players rising higher. Both these numbers are important because it shows how often top players fall to lower tiers & how often unranked players rise to the upper tiers.

		QBs	RBs	WRs
Top 10-Drop to Top 20:		11	11	9
Top 10-Drop Out:		7	10	16
Top 20-Drop Out:		19	18	23

These numbers to me showed one of the most interesting trends, WRs were the lowest in top-10 to top-20 drops. But they greatly exceeded both the QBs & RBs in the top 10 to unranked category (classified as a Drop Out).

WRs also led the way in top 20 to unranked but this time by much slimmer numbers. Although, the high numbers at every position should serve as a reminder to all who think any player is a sure thing.

It is also important to keep these numbers in perspective. While top 20 at QB includes almost half fantasy "backup" QBs (some of which go undrafted), top 20 at WRs/RBs include WR2/RB2 type players. The turnover rate at these positions is felt much more drastically then at the QB position.

		QBs	RBs	WRs
Top 20-To Top 10:		9	5	7
Out-To Top 10:		10	14	17
Out-To Top 20:		16	14	23

Interestingly enough RBs lead the charge in all of these areas. At first this could look like a high compliment to them as a less random position. But then you realize all the rookies that easily place as an unranked to top 10 or top 20, and these results get even more interesting.

The RB position starts to look like a reasonably steady position, especially when the proper rookie RBs are drafted in later rounds. WR again shows its true colors with more unranked players making into the top 20 than any other position. This points to a very muddy WR2 class every year. QB is not far behind the RBs, seeming to support late QBs are a dime a dozen.

One Year Wonders

Finally the stat most people are interested in...One Year Wonders. These were broken up into players who achieved top-10 status for only one year (either were a top-20 or unranked the season before or after) and players with only one year as a top 20 (unranked seasons before and after).

		QBs	RBs	WRs
1 Year Top 10:		7	10	10
1 Year Top 20:		8	6	12

These numbers don't point to any on position being stronger than another. Given the few QBs that are startable in fantasy football, the comparative numbers at QB could be seen as a discouraging sign.

In the end, how each Fantasy Football Owner favors each category defines how they view each position. I think the numbers clearly support both QBs & RBs as more favorable and stable compared to WRs. However, RBs are not far off.

And remember, this information is suppose to be used in correlation with Average Position Scoring. So if larger advantages can be found when selecting the No. 1-No. 5 WR, they should be selected while ignoring the positions stability (got to trust your gut right?).

However, the growing trend or idea that Top WRs are becoming consistent is probably a year or two early. Lets wait another two years to see if the young studs can bring some consistent production to the table.