Belmont Stakes 2015: Predictions for Top Underrated Contenders in New York
It might come as a surprise, but American Pharoah won't run a race against himself at the 2015 Belmont Stakes.
Just as California Chrome did last year at this point, Bob Baffert's horse is hogging all the attention. He came from behind to win the Kentucky Derby, then went wire to wire at Pimlico in the rainy mud of the Preakness Stakes, meaning the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years is one lengthy dash away.
When folks think of the Belmont Stakes in New York, early names such as Frosted and Materiality come to mind.
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There are other underdogs, at least according to Las Vegas, to keep an eye on, though.
Projected Horses and Odds
| American Pharoah | 1-1 |
| Frosted | 5-1 |
| Materiality | 15-2 |
| Carpe Diem | 16-1 |
| Madefromlucky | 22-1 |
| Mubtaahij | 14-1 |
| Divining Rod | 25-1 |
| Keen Ice | 25-1 |
| Tale of Verve | 28-1 |
| Conquest Curlinate | 33-1 |
| War Story | 33-1 |
| Frammento | 50-1 |
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark as of May 23.
Underrated Contenders to Watch
Mubtaahij
It's a tad surprising there isn't more hype around Mubtaahij, as international horses tend to fare well over lengthy races, and the Belmont is akin to a marathon at 1 ½ miles.
Maybe the hype's quiet because the Mike de Kock-trained colt fell short at Churchill Downs, coming in eighth place after folks picked him as a sneaky underdog. Mubtaahij sat out the Preakness and will make his second American start with a new jockey up top, as Mike de Kock Racing captures:
The change might be just what Mubtaahij needs, too, as Irad Ortiz is far from a household name, but he touts a Breeders' Cup win on his resume.
With a new jockey up top and fresh legs, Mubtaahij should be able to keep pace with the leaders around the final bend, where his habitual late pushes could see him land as high as fifth as the rest of the field fades.
Prediction: Mubtaahij finishes fifth.
Carpe Diem
When it comes to top trainers, Todd Pletcher's plan might just pay off in New York.
Pletcher chose to keep his horses out of the Preakness Stakes, instead gunning for the Belmont. He seems pleased with most of his horses after strong practice sessions, too.
"I think the track was fast, from what I gathered," Pletcher said, per Karen Johnson of BloodHorse.com (via ESPN.com). "It was a good and fast work. They both did well. Both were enthusiastic and weren't asked hard for what they did. They both galloped out strongly."
Carpe Diem is the top name to watch from the legendary trainer's stable.
A winner at the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes, Carpe Diem is the typical Pletcher horse who posts a ho-hum performance at Churchill Downs, where he finished 10th, before exploding in the long-distance event.
Carpe Diem touts the fresh legs and endurance to keep pace for the duration of the event, which should put him in contention to land in the top three.
Prediction: Carpe Diem finishes third.
Keen Ice
Even American Pharoah needs to be wary of Keen Ice, no matter what Las Vegas seems to think.
Keen Ice, trained by Dale Romans, put on a surprising, strong late push in the Kentucky Derby to finish seventh, displaying the sort of closing speed a horse needs to keep up with the best of a winded field in New York.
It sounds like all systems are a go, too, as Alicia Wincze Hughes of the Lexington Herald-Leader captures:
With a pedigree suggesting great success at long distances and habitual come-from-behind strategies, Keen Ice might be the shocker of the field.
If contenders such as American Pharoah start to lose gas down the stretch around the time Keen Ice hits his stride, it will make the finish in New York much more entertaining than the Preakness.
Prediction: Keen Ice finishes fourth.
Stats and information via Preakness.com unless otherwise specified.
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