Belmont Stakes 2015: Predictions for Longshots to Beat American Pharoah
Longshot players know that the Belmont Stakes has been their opportunity to make a big score.
Especially when the Triple Crown is at stake. Thirteen horses have gone to the post having won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness since Affirmed completed the Triple Crown successfully in 1978, and all of them have failed. Many of those failures have resulted in eye-opening, longshot winners crossing the line first at Belmont Park.
Some of the better-known Belmont Stakes longshot winners include 30-1 Lemon Drop Kid, who defeated Triple Crown candidate Charismatic in 1999, Commendable, who won the race in 2000 at odds of 19-1, Ruler on Ice, who won in 2011 at odds of 24-1 and Birdstone, who won the 2004 Belmont States at odds of 36-1 and kept Smarty Jones from winning the Triple Crown.
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American Pharoah is the odds-on favorite to win the Belmont Stakes this year, and 11 competitors are scheduled to go forward June 6. Nine of those horses have odds of 14-1 or greater according to OddsShark, and if anyone of them could find a way to win the race, it would mean huge payoffs for win bettors, as well as those who use that horse in any of the exotic betting opportunities.
| Horse | Odds |
| Mubtaahij | 14-1 |
| Carpe Diem | 16-1 |
| Madefromlucky | 22-1 |
| Keen Ice | 25-1 |
| Divining Rod | 25-1 |
| Tale of Verve | 28-1 |
| Conquest Curlinate | 33-1 |
| War Story | 33-1 |
| Frammento | 50-1 |
Here's our look at the longshots who have the best chance of coming away with the win in the longest of the Triple Crown races June 6.
Carpe Diem (16-1) may be the best of the longshot opportunities in this year's race. Carpe Diem won the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes earlier this year and he is trained by Todd Pletcher. That's significant because Pletcher has a history of coming through in the Belmont Stakes with horses that struggled in the Kentucky Derby.
Carpe Diem fits that bill because he finished 10th at Churchill Downs and generally ran a dull race. Carpe Diem's bloodlines suggest he should be effective at the 1 1/2-mile distance of this testing race, and he's also fast enough at the start that he should be able to gain good position early in the race.
Conquest Curlinate (33-1) will be among the longest of the long shots on the board at Belmont Park. He deserves to be considered because he finished as the second-place finisher in both the Illinois Derby and the Peter Pan Stakes, which was run at Belmont Park. Conquest Curlinate showed a great rally in the Peter Pan, and that means he should be in good form at the Belmont Stakes. He also has outstanding distance bloodlines, and that makes him worthy of possible backing.
Keen Ice (25-1) showed a rally in the Kentucky Derby and finished seventh in that race. While that's not a lot to recommend, his lineage suggests he will love the distance because he is by Curlin out of an Awesome Again mare. Keen Ice likes to drop back and come from way off the pace. That could be a problem in this race because American Pharoah likes to get close or to the front of the pack quickly and he has not shown any inclination to fade. However, if a real speed duel emerges, it could benefit Keen Ice.
Mubtaahij (14-1) won the United Arab Emirates Derby, but he did not run his best race in the Kentucky Derby and finished eighth. He did not run in the Preakness, so that should be of some benefit, but he will have to come close to matching the pace of the leaders so he doesn't fall too far behind. If he is close at the top of the stretch, he is going to have to show that he can handle Belmont Park's long finishing run.
Tale of Verve (28-1) is a true longshot player's horse. He was considered a huge outsider in the Preakness, but he rallied to finish second in the rain. Prior to that race, there was little to recommend this horse, but ifr he can pick up where he left off he has a chance to be a factor in the race. It would probably help if the Belmont Stakes also is run during a cloudburst because Tale of Verve seemed to enjoy the sloppy conditions.
Top five longshots with best chance to upset American Pharoah, ranked in order:
1. Carpe Diem
2. Conquest Curlinate
3. Keen Ice
4. Mubtaahij
5. Tale of Verve
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