What If...What Could Be: The Real Key to the Buffalo Bills' 2009 Season

As the Buffalo Bills' season looms ever so close, with 10 days sandwiched between the preseason finale against the Detroit Lions and the MNF encounter with the mighty New England Patriots, much analysis and prognostication has cluttered the minds of Bills fans far and wide.

Whether you've come to believe that the consecutive poor preseason showings foreshadow another gloomy season in the Queen City or you've remained hopelessly optimistic, history may be the determining factor for the Buffalo Bills' 2009 season.

If history can be left behind, the Bills may find themselves battling for a playoff spot at years' end. 

If you ask the casual football fan what he thinks of when he hears "Buffalo Bills," words like "choke," "disappoint," and "inconsistent" pop into his head. 

He'd be right.

Outside of the greatest comeback in league history in 1993 (who can forget) and a few time-expiring FG winners sprinkled over the past decade, Buffalo's late game catastrophes have far outweighed its triumphs. These fourth quarter disasters have gone on to ruin several seasons for the Bills.

To refresh your memory (diehards, you might want to scroll past):

1991|Super Bowl XXV

Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas orchestrate a beautiful two minute drill and Scott Norwood misses a 47-yard field goal. Yes, we know—wide right.

He makes the kick, and we're not talking about Dan Marino and Jim Kelly as the best quarterbacks not to win a Super Bowl.

1999|WildCard Playoffs

The Bills ride the shoulder of a young Rob Johnson, who starts in the year of the Flutie Flakes.

Johnson delivers and has the game won in Tennessee, where the Titans didn't lose all season. Then, the Music City Miracle happens (most recent playoff game, may I remind you).

2004|Home Opener

Buffalo opens against the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars and in a defensive battle, Byron Leftwich leads his team down the field in the game's waning moments and hits Ernest Wilford for the game-winning touchdown as time expires.

The Drew Bledsoe-led Bills would go on to finish 9-7 and miss out on a berth in the playoffs by a game.

2004|Season Finale

As alluded to above, the Bills would miss out on the playoffs by a single game, but the opening loss to the Jaguars would have been erased from fans' memories had the Bills defeated the Steelers second-teamers at home in January.

2006|Season Opener (2006 is a bit of a stretch because the Bills did finish 7-9 that season, but hear me out)

The Bills charged into Foxboro and took a 17-7 lead into halftime. After an early third quarter 4th-and-1 attempt that was stopped short, the Patriots rallied to win, 19-17, not on a Tom Brady touchdown, but a Ty Warren safety of J.P. Losman. Odd way to lose.

2006|Week 10

The Indianapolis Colts played host to the Buffalo Bills and had a very un-Colts like game. Peyton Manning was limited to dump offs as the Bills held the eventual Super Bowl champions locked down for the most of the game.

Although not a last second miss, Rian Lindell failed on what may have been a game winner inside the RCA dome with 6:27 to go. The Bills lose, 17-16, in another unusual heart breaker.

2006|Week 17

Following the close call loss against the Colts, the Bills did win back-to-back games late over Houston and Jacksonville, respectively. Those games didn't matter after a playoff-hungry Titans team came into the Ralph in one of the wackiest games I've ever attended.

Vince Young scampered 36 yards for a score to leave one second remaining before halftime, and after a defensive penalty on a Hail Mary attempt, the Bills were able to kick a field goal with no time on the clock.

The only catch—instead of being up three, they were down one going into the locker room. The Bills were unable to hold a nine point lead they had entering the fourth quarter and a Rob Bironas field goal with under nine minutes to play sealed the deal for the Titans.

That 7-9 record turns into 9-7 quickly.

2007|Season Opener

Roscoe Parrish and Marshawn Lynch ignite a raucous crowd in Orchard Park as the Bills looked to have the game won against the young Jay Cutler and the Broncos.

A deep fire miss on third and short from J.P. Losman to Lee Evans gave the Broncos a chance late. Without any timeouts, following a completion to Javon Walker, Mike Shanahan hurries his field goal unit onto the field and Jason Elam kicks the ball through the uprights as time expires. Broncos win, 15-14.

2007|Week 5

On a night many Bills fans still remember as one of the best in recent memory (that ended in defeat), Buffalo was host to the Dallas Cowboys in its first home Monday Night Football contest in over a decade.

The team rode the ecstatic crowd to five interceptions of Tony Romo and a dynamic kick return touchdown by Terrence McGee. A Terrance Newman "pick six" put the Cowboys back in the game, but after a Jabari Greer breakup of a two-point fade attempt to Terrell Owens, the game was seemingly over.

Not so fast. Dallas' onside kick attempt ricochets off a Bills uniform and the 'Boys recover.

Rookie placekicker Nick Folk then launches a 52-yard bomb to give Wade Phillips and the Cowboys the victory, 25-24.

Still hurts.

2008|Week 11

The NFL was kind enough to award Buffalo another home MNF game, this time against its Lake Erie rival, the Cleveland Browns. In another weird but classic game, Rian Lindell sprays a 47-yard field goal with 43 seconds left. Wide right. This came minutes after Phil Dawson booted a 56-yarder which turned out to be the game winner.

Seven and nine easily went to 9-7, but Buffalo still would have fallen short of the postseason.

Wow. That's a lot. Sorry if the summaries were a little excessive, but I needed to get my point across that these games are so very critical.

I know what you're thinking. You can remember games when the Bills pulled off some late game heroics of their own—games against Washington, Jacksonville, and Oakland to name a few. You also may be thinking that every team loses a few close ones.

These contests are different—games the Bills should have certainly won. No questions asked—the majority of the good teams in the NFL win these games.

Why am I pointing this out?

Because to be honest, I don't see a Bills team that dissimilar from the squads of a few seasons ago or even last year.

The offense most likely won't be lightyears ahead of where it's been. Terrell Owens definitely helps, but don't expect anything in the top 10 of the league. 

The line won't be as bad as advertised, as we've seen strides even through three preseason contests. The five games before New England helps immensely.

The defense lingers in tentative mode, willing to give up yards between the 20s while putting the onus on keeping teams off the board, something they aren't necessarily great at.

Because of this, I see the Buffalo Bills' 2009 season coming down to the close games, and there will be some close ones—the ones that they've found the most odd, heartbreaking ways to lose. They've made all the difference recently.

I'm looking at games against the Texans, Dolphins, Jets, Colts, Titans, and Jags as pivotal matchups. Throw in a game where the Bills either play up or down to their competition; they do that from time to time.

If Buffalo can come out victorious in the nail biters and win the close games they should, they could be looking at a winning record and a trip to the playoffs for the first time in a decade.

What do you think?