Harrison Barnes Playing His Way into Larger Role Than Warriors Can Offer
If Harrison Barnes played for a bad team, he’d launch 15 shots a night and defend the opposing squad’s most lethal weapon. He’d be tasked with creating offense off the dribble, running pick-and-rolls and reading defenses geared to shut him down.
Barnes' coach's playbook would have more than a couple sets designed to get him open. He’d struggle—a ton—but it’d be worthwhile hardship, a mud race to increase his odds of becoming the star whom most expected him to eventually become when he entered the league three years ago.
But Barnes doesn’t play for a bad team. He’s instead on the Golden State Warriors, a cog on the Bay Area’s most unstoppable machine. Here, his polished offensive game and positional versatility are much better reserved to complement real stars, like Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.
He has a relatively minor role but he crushes inside it, crashing the glass, knocking down unfairly open shots and seeking out open driving lanes against defenses that are rightfully obsessed trying to stop the NBA’s MVP and all Golden State's many other insanely good players.
Here’s what Warriors head coach Steve Kerr said about Barnes’ ability to do just about anything he’s asked, particularly on defense, courtesy of the San Jose Mercury News’ Daniel Brown: "That's what makes Harrison unique: The fact he's strong enough to guard a guy like Zach Randolph -- obviously, with help. He’s strong enough to hold off some of the league's best power forwards for periods of the game. He's quick enough to switch onto a point guard."
Barnes is no slouch. The 22-year-old (his birthday is in about a week) was one of 11 players in the entire league to start all 82 games this season. He’s shooting 50.5 percent from the floor in these playoffs and is reliable enough to be on the court in the fourth quarter.
The Warriors were marginally better with him on the floor than off during the regular season (they put a blow torch to the competition regardless), but in the postseason they’re 12.7 points per 100 possessions better when Barnes plays and 1.7 points per 100 possessions worse than the other team when he doesn’t, per NBA.com.
Some of this is because he mostly operates beside Curry and Draymond Green, but Barnes’ ability to finish from anywhere is extremely useful. He can post up, drive and create his own shot whenever necessary. Of all players who've isolated at least 10 times in the playoffs, nobody is more efficient than the Black Falcon.
But the Warriors aren’t immune to bad news. Barnes is a restricted free agent next summer, and barring the unlikely event both he and the team can agree on an extension before the cap spikes, there’s a good chance he cashes out with a sizable pay raise.
We know approximately how high the salary cap will rise over the next few years, but we don’t know how potential changes to the collective bargaining agreement in 2017 will affect player movement and contract values.
"New salary cap projections sent out to NBA teams: 2015-16: 67.1 million, tax 81.6, 2016-17: 89 million, tax 108. 2017-18: 108, 127 tax
— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) April 17, 2015"
Even under the assumption, for the sake of argument, that everything remains stagnant beyond 2017, it’s still so difficult to predict how much money Barnes will command on the open market. Is he the product of his environment or a budding star in need of more opportunity? Will any teams try to lure him away with a max contract? Would the Warriors match something that large, or near it? Are those last two questions utterly ridiculous?
Assuming Golden State uses Green’s Bird Rights to sign him to a four-year maximum contract (it’s just as possible Bird Rights won’t be a factor if the Warriors let Green sign an offer sheet elsewhere and then simply match it), the Warriors will already have roughly $74 million locked into six players (Shaun Livingston’s non-guaranteed deal is at least $3 million in 2016-17), per Basketball Insiders.
That still leaves about $15 million to fill out the roster and puts the Warriors about $34 million under the luxury tax. That's before they take care of Barnes and after David Lee's awful contract finally goes away.
There’s a strong chance I’m over-inflating Barnes’ market, but a max contract at 25 percent of an $89 million salary cap would make him Golden State’s highest-paid player in the 2016-17 season, by a very wide margin. (This sounds crazy but just happened to Chicago Bulls guard Jimmy Butler.)
If the Warriors win the championship this season, then run it back next year (entirely possible), Barnes’ stock will be enormously high. Forget about all he tangibly brings to a basketball team on both ends of the floor, Barnes will be drenched in a magical, irresistible fragrance called “winning.”
Teams will try to poach him away, and given the fact that the Warriors will have a right to match anything, the offers will be exorbitant—either to force Golden State’s hand and make them overpay or simply to increase the odds of actually landing him.
Andrew Bogut, Andre Iguodala and Curry all expire that summer, and in the 2014-15 MVP's case, the Warriors will literally pay as much as they're allowed. Keeping everyone and staying under the tax won't be easy.
For now, Barnes is a role player. But all his athleticism and ability just beg for more responsibility. The Warriors probably can't keep all their ridiculous talent without flirting with the tax line every single year. And if they have to let anyone go, Barnes seems like the safest bet.
This is pleasant news for whichever team tries to pry him away. He's already pretty good, and getting better by the day.
All statistics are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com unless otherwise noted.
Michael Pina is an NBA writer who lives in Los Angeles. Follow him on Twitter @MichaelVPina.
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