Fantasy 101: 2009 Top Sleepers

In our last article, we looked at the biggest bust candidates which means it is time to list our top fantasy sleepers for 2009. 

Sleepers fall into two categories: breakout candidates and deep sleepers. 

Breakout players are guys who are not considered a fantasy starter except in deep leagues but have the potential of to grow into fantasy starters or more.  A deep sleeper is a guy who is likely going undrafted in shallow leagues and late in deeper leagues who possess high upside but also the risk of being useless. 

When faced with the choice between a so-so veteran like Bobby Engram, Nate Burleson or Joey Galloway or a wide receiver with upside late in a draft, I recommend always take a flyer on the upside guy.  The veteran may get you points each week but if you can hit on a sleeper late in the draft it can be the difference between being a contender or pretender late in the season.

Lastly, to qualify as a breakout/comeback player he has to rank outside of the top 12 quarterbacks and tight ends, top 24 running backs, top 36 wide receivers in the Draft101.comrankings.  To qualify as a deep sleeper, they have to rank outside the top 20 quarterbacks or tight ends, top 40 running backs and top 60 wide receivers in the Draft101.com rankings.

QUARTERBACKS

Breakout:

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks (Draft101 rank: 16)—More of a comeback candidate than a breakout, Hasselbeck is coming off a miserable season last year and is coming off a back injury but he is falling in drafts and could easily bounce back to a 3,500+ yard, 20-25 TD season on a team without a running back. Has the ability to be a top 10 QB and a late round steal. To insulate yourself from the injury risk draft Seneca Wallace who played well in relief late last season.

David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars (Draft101 rank: 17)—Garrard was not the breakout star many expected from him a year ago but considering his poor protection and lack of receivers his fantasy year was solid if not spectacular.  Garrard came into camp in better shape, and the team upgrade the line and receivers setting the stage for a 3,600 yard 20+, 10-12 INT season plus solid rushing yards.  I love Garrard in two QB league.

Deep Sleepers:

Shaun Hill, San Francisco 49ers (Draft101 rank: 28)—No one gives Hill any credit but all he has done is complete 60 percent of his passes and throw for 1.5 TDs per game the past two years.  He will throw less without Martz around but he should throw for 3,000 yards and a good touchdown to interception ratio.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (Draft101 rank: 31)—You never want to bank on a rookie but if Stafford gets the starting job he could put up solid stats considering he gets to throw to Calvin Johnson and will be playing from behind a lot (Of course, he'll throw a lot of picks too).  Mark Sanchez is the safer rookie but Stafford is the one with the top 20 potential if he gets a chance to play.

RUNNING BACKS

Breakout:

(I love the depth at running back this season and sleeper options are plentiful)

Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals (Draft101 rank: 27)—Skeptics point to his 3.5 ypc and strong finish vs. weak opponents but anyone who watched the Bengals play saw a player with a good power/speed combination and unlike many higher ranked players Benson has a firm grip on the starting job and will get the goal line carries.  A 1,200 yard season with 8-10 TDs is possible.

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens (Draft101 rank: 34)—The Ravens three back committee is daunting but expect Rice to be the top fantasy producer this season as his role expands especially between the 20s. Think a poor man's Brian Westbrook. His value is best in PPR leagues.

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs (Draft101 rank: 35)—Draft101 has Charles ranked higher than most sites due to his speed and receiving ability not to mention Larry Johnson's decline.  Like Rice his value is best in PPR leagues.

Chris Wells, Arizona Cardinals and Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts (Draft101 ranks: 32 and 37)—Either of these guys could be the top rookie offensive player this season and a top 10 overall back (a rookie seems to emerge as a top 10 runner each season).  Both appear to be good scheme fits as the Cardinals need a power runner               and Brown's running/receiving skills appear to be an ideal fit for the Colts scheme. Do not overdraft them expecting the breakout season but be ready to swoop in if either drops on draft day.

Deep Sleepers:

Leon Washington, New York Jets (Draft101 rank: 50)—He has always had the talent and the new Jets coaching staff is looking to give the playmaking back increased opportunities.

Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants (Draft101 rank: unranked)—No running back has increased his stock more in the pre-season than Bradshaw.  He is in-line to replace Derrick Ward and his 1,025 yards and 41 receptions alongside Brandon Jacobs.

Michael Bush, Oakland Raiders (Draft101 rank: unranked)—Bush has the potential to be a LenDale White, LeRon McClain touchdown vulture.  He'll likely get past injury prone Justin Fargas on the depth chart and could add 800 yards and 8-10 TD.

James Davis, Cleveland Browns (Draft101 rank: unranked)—A pre-season star who could become the Browns starting running back if Jamal Lewis' decline continues.

Bernard Scott, Cincinnati Bengals (Draft101 rank: unranked)—Scott has playmaker potential and the Bengals coaching staff appears to know it.  If Scott gets an opportunity to show his burst, he could steal Benson's job.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Breakout: (It is not a great year to gamble for breakout wide receivers so draft your receivers early)

Ted Ginn, Jr., Miami Dolphins (Draft101 rank: 39)—Ginn has his detractors but don't forget he was still learning the position when he entered the NFL and is now entering his third season which is when many receivers begin to come into their own.  He'll be a little feast or famine from week to week but he has playmaking potential and could come into his own this year.

Earl Bennett, Chicago Bears (Draft101 rank: 45)—The Bears added Jay Cutler in the off-season and need a receiver to emerge.  Devin Hester will remain the playmaker but look for Bennett to lead the team in receptions as a possession receiver who moves the chains.

Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith, New York Giants (Draft101 rank: 41 and 44)—The Giants are looking for someone to step up in the passing game and Nicks and Smith are the top fantasy options on the roster.  Smith is the safer possession guy who should be good for 60-70 catches and 800 or so yards.  Nicks is the riskier play but has a much higher ceiling and is a better red zone option. 

Super Sleepers:

Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans (Draft101 rank: 61)—Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks and even the unsigned Michael Crabtree have garnered more fantasy support but Britt is a near equal in talent and could start on opening day due to an injury to Nate Washington.  Britt is a big, physical receiver who will be a red zone option who is worth a late round flyer on the hunch he makes an early impact.

Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings (Draft101 rank: 64)—All the talk in Minnesota is surrounding Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian but neither is much of a red zone option nor a chain moving possession guy.  QB Brett Favre always seems to like to throw to the chain moving possession guy making the failed breakout guy from 2008 a nice super sleeper in 2009.

Josh Morgan, San Francisco 49ers (Draft101 rank: 65)—Michael Crabtree's holdout has Morgan poised to seize the 49ers No.1 receiver job and build on the potential he showed last season.  A nice combination of size, strength and speed.

Jordy Nelson and James Jones, Green Bay Packers (Draft101 rank: 73 and 74)—Nelson and Jones are flying under the radar in most drafts because of their third and fourth receiver roles in the Green Bay offense but Donald Driver is in decline and the Packers offense is showing tremendous firepower thus far in the pre-season.  Jones has the higher ceiling but whichever one earns the No.3 receiver job for the Pack should be a useful fantasy player this season.

Chaz Schilens, Oakland Raiders (Draft101 rank: unranked)—Schilens was having a tremendous camp prior to incurring a foot injury that will cost him the first couple games of the season but keep him on your watch list or stash him on your bench because if a Raiders receiver is worth owning in 2009 its Schilens not Heyward-Bey.

Austin Collie, Indianapolis Colts (Draft101 rank: unranked)—Collie is working exclusively out of the slot in the pre-season for the Colts and is showing excellent hands and route running ability.  Look for him to put up numbers similar to Anthony Gonzalez did a year ago and should Gonzalez slip, Collie could steal a starting job.

Sammie Stroughter, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Draft101 rank: unranked)—A good route runner known for his toughness, the Bucs seventh round pick who has already earned the slot receiver job.

TIGHT ENDS

Breakout:

(it is a deep tight end class but lean on what I consider breakout guys as Brent Celek, John Carlson and Zach Miller were all ranked among Draft101's top 12)

Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota Vikings (Draft101 rank: 13): Shiancoe actually "broke out" last year but he could see his stock rise yet another notch with the arrival of Brett Favre who is known to look for his tight ends in the red zone.

Anthony Fasano, Miami Dolphins (Draft101 rank: 15): Fasano was the touchdown vulture of the tight end position last year with seven touchdowns out of just 34 catches.  This year he could put the whole package together and challenge for the top 10.

Super Sleeper:

Jared Cook, Tennessee Titans (Draft101 rank: 24):  Cook was only a third round pick but has amazed his coaches and teammates with his combination of size, speed and strength.  Even with Bo Scaife on the roster the Titans will find ways to take advantage of Cook's talent in the passing game. He may take a year to develop but if he is ready right away he could rank in the top 10. An ideal last round sleeper pick in a 12 team league.

Martellus Bennett, Dallas Cowboys (Draft101 rank: 29): Bennett is a tremendous athlete who averaged over 14 ypc as a rookie.  With the departure of Terrell Owens and a questionable collection of receivers expect the Cowboys to use enough two tight end sets to give Bennett value as a second tight end.

Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers (Draft101 rank: unranked): Finley did not play much as a rookie but he has the raw tools to be a top flight tight end.  The Packers offense is tight end friendly and the team does not appear enamored with the merely average Donald Lee which could present Finley with an opportunity.  If he starts he'll shine. 

Chris Maier is senior editor for Draft101.com.  He can be reached at [e-mail].