MLB Trade Talk: Ranking the Most Valuable Players on the Market
Memorial Day weekend is upon us, and we're starting to get a sense of which MLB teams may be putting their valuable trade chips on the market as they fall out of contention in their respective leagues.
Though the trade deadline is still over two months away, it's not too early for potential playoff contenders to address some of the holes on their rosters. With guys like Cole Hamels and Johnny Cueto being mentioned as players who can find themselves in new uniforms down the stretch, let's take a look at the 10 most impactful trade candidates in baseball.
When compiling this list, I took into consideration not only each player's ability to influence their prospective team's World Series chase this year, but the impact they may have for years to come.
So let the conversation begin.
Honorable Mentions
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Either because of their performance to this point or because I don't think their teams will ultimately try to move them, these players didn't crack the list:
- Troy Tulowitzki
- Adrian Beltre
- Chase Utley
- Ryan Howard
- Carlos Gonzalez
- Jean Segura
- Jose Tabata
No. 10 Ben Revere
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He's not the big name most fans are screaming for, but Revere would be a welcome addition to at least one team.
The Los Angeles Angels are showing interest in Revere, according to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.
Revere's .256 batting average and .300 OBP entering play Thursday are underwhelming, though he did hit .294 or better every year from 2012 to 2014.
But even his current level of production would be an upgrade for the Angels. Left fielder Matt Joyce is hitting .150 with a .205 OBP and his backup Collin Cowgill hasn't been much better.
Currently trailing the first-place Houston Astros in the AL West, the Angels could use all the help they can get.
Again, Revere isn't going to make any All-Star teams, but if he can help a team like the Angels improve, it's worth the move. There's also a chance he'll get his numbers back up to where they've been over the past three seasons.
No. 9 Daniel Murphy
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With the New York Mets positioning themselves for meaningful games in September, it's no sure thing they will trade Murphy.
However, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports said last weekend that the Mets are considering trading the second baseman.
According to Rosenthal, the Mets may call up Matt Reynolds from Triple-A to play shortstop, with Wilmer Flores shifting to second base once David Wright returns from the DL. In this scenario, there's no place for Murphy in the starting lineup, and the team could trade him.
While that all seems far-fetched, it's worth keeping an eye on because Murphy has been one of the better hitting second baseman in baseball for the last half-decade.
He's batting .245 after a sluggish start to the season, but history says that number will be much higher by the end of the year. Murphy's not going to provide much power, but his .287 career average makes him a valuable commodity if he is in fact available.
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No. 8 Alex Guerrero
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The addition of Cuban infielder Hector Olivera could mean the Los Angeles Dodgers will include a guy like Alex Guerrero in a package that lands them a much-needed starting pitcher, according to Mark Saxon of ESPN.com.
Guerrero is on this list based largely on potential, because he hasn't been given much of an opportunity to prove himself in the big league's yet.
Baseball America's Ben Badler had this to say about Guerrero when the Dodgers signed him from Cuba's Serie Nacional league in 2013:
"At 5-foot-10, 200 pounds, the righthanded-hitting Guerrero has been one of the top offensive players in the league for the last five seasons and has plus raw power, although scouts have questions about whether the power will translate. Those highest on Guerrero see him as a power-hitting second baseman, while others question whether his hitting will play against major league pitching.
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In limited playing time, Guerrero has shown he can handle major league pitching just fine.
After only 13 at-bats in 2014, Guerrero entered play on Thursday with a .990 OPS to go along with six home runs and 16 RBI's in 71 at-bats this season.
Yes, he's still an unknown, but there are signs that he can be a good major league ballplayer if given the chance. At the very least, he deserves the opportunity to play every day, and that won't come in Los Angeles.
If a team trades for him, they'd be getting a versatile 28-year-old with a ton of upside.
No. 7 Starlin Castro
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Remember when Starlin Castro was on the cover of Sports Illustrated and supposed to be the savior of the Chicago Cubs?
Well, the former Cubs phenom hasn't quite lived up to the hype, and the surplus of young talent in the infield makes him expendable. Top prospect Addison Russell has played second base since his call-up because Castro's blocking him from his natural position.
David Just of the Chicago Sun-Times suggested trading Castro, allowing Russell to play shortstop and calling up Javier Baez to play second base. This can let the Cubs address other areas of need, like their bullpen.
The team that could potentially acquire Castro, meanwhile, would be receiving a 25-year-old player who hasn't quite met expectations. But it's not like Castro has been a colossal failure.
He's a .284 career hitter whose on-base percentage has suffered because he lacks plate discipline, which can be fixed with proper coaching.
Despite issues in the field over the years, he's an athletically gifted shortstop with the ability to get to almost any ball and make difficult throws.
The Cubs can afford to part ways with Castro due to their glut of infielders, but that's not to say he isn't an immensely talented shortstop with room for improvement if placed in the right situation.
No. 6 Kyle Lohse
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You're probably wondering why Kyle Lohse and his 5.53 ERA are so high on this list, and rightfully so.
I just find it hard to believe his ERA is going to be approaching six come season's end, considering the right-hander's ERA from 2011 to 2014 was 3.28.
Furthermore, there aren't many known commodities out there as far as starting pitchers are concerned, and the teams that miss out on top guns could use a guy like Lohse, who has postseason experience.
Two first-place teams—the Dodgers and New York Yankees—are in need of rotation help. Yankees starter Chase Whitley is expected to undergo Tommy John surgery, while Hyun-Jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy will miss the rest of the season for the Dodgers.
Both teams would probably rather have Cueto or Hamels, but they might have to settle for a middle-of-the-rotation veteran like Lohse.
A few weeks ago, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports wrote that the St. Louis Cardinals may also make a run at Lohse, as they continue their search for Adam Wainwright's replacement.
Wouldn't it be so Cardinals to trade for Lohse just before he turns things around, fortifying their rotation on their way to another World Series?
No. 5 Jonathan Papelbon
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Papelbon has gotten off to an outstanding start this season, and his performance so far may land him on a playoff contender.
The Philadelphia Phillies haven't been shy about their willingness to part with pricey veterans as they attempt to rebuild, and Papelbon meets the criteria.
They should get some phone calls as the deadline approaches, thanks to Papelbon's 1.50 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 18 innings pitched. He also has 11 saves for a not-so-great Phillies club, although they've played better of late.
A team like the Cubs, who rank 22nd in bullpen ERA as of Thursday, could really use Papelbon's services.
MLB.com's Dan O'Dowd proposed the idea of the Cubs trading for Papelbon and moving closer Hector Rondon to a setup or middle-relief role, thus bolstering the team's bullpen depth.
A move for a shutdown closer like Papelbon could really impact the NL playoff picture.
No. 4 Scott Kazmir
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At 14-29, the Oakland Athletics possess the worst record in baseball, and their brutal start may force them to trade some of their veteran players to get some value in return.
Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported this week that the A's are "almost certain" to trade Ben Zobrist, Tyler Clippard and Kazmir if they don't turn things around.
So Kazmir—no stranger to switching teams—may be on the move again. He's pitching well, too, so the A's should have no problem finding him a new team.
The left-hander has a 3.08 ERA and has pitched a quality start in all but one of his eight outings this season.
Though his postseason numbers are subpar—a 5.20 ERA in seven starts—Kazmir is a reliable veteran, something a lot of contenders can use in the middle of their rotations.
One team potentially looking for an upgrade is the Boston Red Sox. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe believes that Kazmir could be a good fit in Bean Town.
The teams that lose out on the Hamels and Cueto sweepstakes would no doubt happily settle for the next-best pitcher on the market.
No. 3 Carlos Gomez
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While his name hasn't been mentioned all that much in trade rumors, there's a chance Carlos Gomez is dealt for the third time in his career at some point this summer.
The Milwaukee Brewers are an NL-worst 15-27 and are expected to be big-time sellers as the trade deadline approaches.
CBS Sports Insider Jon Heyman reported two weeks ago that rival GM's believe Milwaukee will make Gomez available.
One would have to figure it's going to take a few highly touted prospects to deal for a player of Gomez's caliber, but he's worth it. Over the last two season's he's proven to be one of the best all-around center fielders in baseball.
Per fangraphs, his 7.5 WAR in 2013 was good for fourth in the majors. He finished 10th in MLB with a 5.7 WAR in 2014.
Gomez hit a combined 47 balls out of the park and drove in a total of 146 runs, while hitting .284 in 2013 and 2014, primarily as a leadoff man.
He's pretty good on defense, too, and has a gold glove to show for it.
Gomez missed time earlier this year with a nagging hamstring injury and was batting .287 with a modest .309 OBP in just 23 games entering play Thursday.
It's tough to predict how Gomez will impact the playoff race without knowing exactly which teams are interested in the two-time All-Star, but he's undoubtedly one of the more valuable players on the market.
If his prospective new club isn't a playoff team this year, he gives the front office an exciting superstar player to build around.
If Gomez goes to a playoff contender, watch out.
No. 2 Johnny Cueto
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The team that lands Cueto is getting a bona fide ace who will instantly change the dynamic of their rotation.
Pitching for an 18-22 Cincinnati Reds team that probably doesn't want their soon-to-be free agent to walk away for nothing, Cueto continues to put up solid numbers.
Last year's NL Cy Young runner-up is 3-4, but has a 3.03 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, while striking out 8.27 batters per nine innings. An ERA above 3.00 is a bit unusual for a guy who hasn't finished a season with an ERA higher than 2.82 since 2010.
On that note, there should be no shortage of potential landing spots for the right-hander.
According to Michael Cronin of the Los Angeles Sun Times, the Dodgers are probably in search of a new starting pitcher in the wake of Ryu's injury. Cronin quoted ESPN's Buster Olney in regards to a possible connection between the Dodgers and Cueto.
Olney wrote this about the Dodgers, per Cronin:
"Now they might be cornered into making a significant starting pitching investment, either this summer or in the fall. A number of industry folks believe they'll take a run at Johnny Cueto.
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The thought of adding Cueto to a rotation that already includes Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke should frighten the rest of the National League.
But whoever acquires the All-Star pitcher would immediately improve their chances come October.
The thing is, unlike the next guy on this list, Cueto has a limited sample size of just three postseason starts in his career.
No. 1 Cole Hamels
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After two shaky April starts against the Boston Red Sox and Washington Nationals in which Hamels allowed four and five runs, respectively, it appeared as if he might be on the decline and the Phillies wouldn't be able to get much back for him.
That notion has quickly been put to rest, because since that start against Washington, Hamels has allowed two runs or less in five of six outings, going at least six innings each time.
The southpaw's ERA is currently at 3.24, and he's striking out 9.57 batters per nine innings.
Philadelphia has been openly shopping Hamels for some time now, they just haven't been offered an adequate haul for the former World Series MVP, Rob Maaddi of Philly.com wrote recently.
Phillies President Pat Gillick said the team is still trying to find a deal that would be fair for both parties, per Maaddi:
"We're not trying to make the perfect deal. In any deal we make, to put it bluntly, both sides have to be winners.
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Given Hamels' track record, it's fair to assume that whichever team acquires him will be satisfied with the trade. The three-time All-Star is signed through the 2019 season—Cueto is a free agent after this season—and is still performing at a high level.
Usually, the objective of a midseason blockbuster trade is to make a deep postseason run, so Hamels is the ideal candidate for any contender looking to bolster its rotation.
In 81.2 innings pitched in his playoff career, Hamels has a 3.09 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He's also struck out 77 batters while walking just 21. In 2008, he made five starts and finished with a 1.80 ERA en route to a Phillies World Series title.
The Cueto-Hamels debate comes down to this: Hamels has proven himself in the playoffs.
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