2009 New York Jets NFL Football Predictions

2009 New York Jets Predictions
Preview courtesy of Ted Sevransky, An award-winning professional football handicapper featured on Touthouse.com. If you are interested in football betting this season, be sure to buy Ted Sevransky’s football picks at Touthouse.com

Overview:
When the Jets were sitting at 8-3 last November, coming off back-2-back road wins at New England and Tennessee, some enthusiastic pundits were calling New York the ‘team to beat’ in the AFC. That public enthusiasm for the Jets tailed off quickly as New York collapsed on both sides of the ball down the stretch, losing four of their last five and missing out on the playoffs for the second consecutive season.

The late season collapse cost head coach Eric Mangini and most of his staff their jobs. Quarterback Brett Favre moved on to retirement, then to the Vikings, ending his short stay in New York. New head coach Rex Ryan was known for his aggressive blitzing schemes as the defensive coordinator in Baltimore. Jets fans are hoping that Ryan’s defense will be strong enough to compensate for their new rookie starting quarterback, Mark Sanchez out of USC, as was the case for the Ravens last year.

Offense:
Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has several positives to work with as the Jets break in their rookie signal caller. First and foremost is the offensive line, a stout unit bolstered by a bevy of high draft picks and free agent pickups in recent years. Center Nick Mangold earned a pro bowl berth last February; the talent around him is stellar. Depth is a big concern, however – the Jets cannot afford injuries to their marquee linemen.

Schottenheimer also has a trio of outstanding running backs. Thomas Jones led the AFC in rushing last year, while scatback Leon Washington is an exceptional change of pace back, averaging 5.9 yards per carry in ‘08. Shonn Greene, the powerful, between-the-tackles rookie runner from Iowa provides some much needed depth. Much like Baltimore last year, the Jets are hoping that all three backs get an ample share of the workload.

Last year, we saw Joe Flacco have great success in Baltimore thanks to a powerful defense and a strong running game. Matt Ryan had similar success in Atlanta with a strong offensive line and running game forcing defenses to stack eight in the box, giving Ryan open receivers downfield to throw to. Rookie quarterbacks do not generally enjoy that kind of success in their first season – Peyton Manning’s Colts went 3-13 in his first year behind center, just one of dozens of examples.

Mark Sanchez has shown tremendous arm strength and an ability to improvise through the first three games of the preseason, earning the starting nod. Sanchez does not have much to work with in terms of downfield targets, as wide receiver depth and talent is the single most glaring hole on the roster. Jerricho Cotchery, Chanci Stuckey and Dustin Keller look to be the primary downfield threats for this run based attack. The Jets are likely to use a ‘Flacco’ approach in ’09, with downfield throws few and far between, as long as the running game can move the chains.

Defense:
The Jets were very active in free agency this past offseason, bringing in Ryan’s type of aggressive playmakers on the defensive side of the football. The Jets ranked #7 in the NFL against the run last year, but #29 against the pass, despite sacking opposing quarterbacks 41 times (also #7 in the NFL). Ryan raided his former team, bringing in Marques Douglas on the defensive line, Bart Scott at linebacker and Jim Leonhard in the secondary. They also traded for two-time pro bowler Lito Shepard to start at cornerback, although his poor showing in the preseason could indicate signs of decline.

New defensive coordinator Mike Pettine was a defensive assistant under Ryan in Baltimore for the past seven seasons, getting his first shot at the coordinator position. He’ll need to overcome some early season suspension problems, with linebacker Calvin Pace scheduled to serve a four game suspension beginning Week 1, and Shaun Ellis joining him on the sidelines at Houston in Week 1.

Nose tackle Kris Jenkins is the key to the 3-4 defense; a 350 pound run stuffing machine. Former first round picks Vernon Gholston and Bryan Thomas, along with two year veteran David Harris give the Jets all kinds of speed on the outside. And with returning talent like CB Darrelle Revis and safety Kerry Rhodes in the secondary, this pass defense can only get better compared to last year’s poor numbers. With an aggressive, defensive minded head coach, don’t be surprised if the Jets defense finishes this season ranked among the elite teams, not the mediocre ones.

Schedule:
The bad news for Jets fans is that last year they faced one of the easiest schedules in the entire league and they still couldn’t make the playoffs. New York faced only two playoff teams after September, and found ways to lose against weaklings like Oakland, Denver, San Francisco and Seattle, with three of those four losses coming by double digit margins.

This year, the Jets schedule is considerably tougher – they don’t have the AFC West and NFC West to kick around anymore. Those two divisions have been replaced by the AFC South and the NFC South, with seven of the eight teams in those two divisions lined at eight wins or higher. That being said, the betting marketplace has soured on this team. With their strength in the trenches on both sides of the football, New York has the potential to overachieve in ’09, even with a rookie QB behind center.