Early Predictions for San Francisco 49ers' 2015 Training Camp Battles
We don’t know who’s winning, but the San Francisco 49ers’ roster battles already have begun.
The Niners had a voluntary minicamp in April and a rookie minicamp in mid-May, both closed to the press. The first open practice of the offseason will be this Thursday.
Soon, we’ll learn things. General things like which players rise to the competition and which players don’t, and specifics like which player is the third-best wide receiver on the Niners' roster. The media will monitor every catch, every drop, every one-on-one battle and every rep during team drills. And we will learn.
Until we do, here are five early predictions for who will win the 49ers’ biggest roster battles this offseason.
5. No. 3 Receiver
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Competitors: Jerome Simpson, Quinton Patton, Bruce Ellington, Dres Anderson, Issac Blakeney, Darius Davis, DiAndre Campbell, DeAndrew White
Every wide receiver on the roster not named Anquan Boldin or Torrey Smith has a legitimate chance to be the 49ers’ No. 3 receiver next season.
The favorite to win the job probably is Jerome Simpson, a veteran who has made 36 starts in the NFL. But he didn’t play at all last season, and he’s 29. Is he still fast? Is he still a deep threat? If not, then who will be the No. 3 receiver?
Probably not Quinton Patton or Bruce Ellington. They’re talented former fourth-round picks, but they’re slot receivers. And when the Niners use three receivers, Boldin typically lines up in the slot.
The Niners need another deep threat on the outside to complement Boldin and Smith. Undrafted free-agent wide receiver Dres Anderson was one of the best deep threats in the Pac-12 the past few years. He averaged 18.9 yards per catch in 2013.
In October, Anderson tore his meniscus, but he recently ran a 4.43 at his pro day, according to Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun. Anderson's knee seems healthy. If it remains healthy, Anderson should win this competition.
Projected Winner: Dres Anderson
4. Left Guard
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Competitors: Brandon Thomas, Erik Pears
Erik Pears is accustomed to starting.
Out of a career 101 games in the NFL, Pears has started 86 of them. Since 2009, he has started every game in which he has played.
In 2015, Pears will earn $2.85 million from the 49ers—not much less than the $3 million starting right guard Alex Boone will earn from them next season. Those two would make a solid starting tandem of guards.
Pears hasn’t given up more than four sacks in a season since 2007, when he gave up five sacks. Mike Iupati, the Niners’ starting left guard last season, gave up seven sacks last season.
Pears’ weakness is run blocking. He’s more of a finesse back-peddler than a power run-blocker. Meaning he isn’t a great fit in the Niners’ power-running offense.
Second-year guard Brandon Thomas is a better fit. Thomas is an exceptionally strong player who missed his rookie season with a torn ACL. He should edge out Pears if his knee holds up.
Projected winner: Brandon Thomas
3. Right Cornerback
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Competitors: Shareece Wright, Chris Cook, Dontae Johnson, Keith Reaser, Kenneth Acker
This one is Shareece Wright’s job to lose.
Of all the cornerbacks in this competition, only Wright started more than three games last season. Johnson started three. Cook started zero. Reaser started zero. Acker started zero. Wright started 14.
Based on solely on experience and dependability, Wright probably will receive almost all of the first-team reps at right cornerback during OTAs, minicamp and training camp. And if Wright is halfway decent, he probably will win the job.
Things could get interesting if he gets burned a few times during the preseason. If that happens, the Niners might feel compelled to give one of their talented young corners the starting job.
Johnson was a fourth-round pick in 2014, and Reaser was a fifth-round pick. He had a torn ACL when the Niners picked him, so he probably would have been a third- or fourth-rounder without the knee injury.
Wright should be able to hold off those two in 2015.
Projected Winner: Shareece Wright
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2. Left Defensive End
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Competitors: Arik Armstead, Quinton Dial
When Arik Armstead wins this job, he probably will keep it for 10 years or more.
But will he win it as a 21-year-old rookie? That's the question.
The 49ers’ left defensive end has to be a powerful run-stopper. The Niners’ previous left defensive end, Ray McDonald, was one of the strongest players on the defense. He could drive back some of the strongest NFL offensive linemen.
Right now, Armstead probably is one of the weakest players on the 49ers defensive line. And that’s not his fault—he’s young and has been a full-time football player for just one year. He has time to get stronger.
Quinton Dial is already strong. He spent the past two seasons in the 49ers’ weight-training program. He’s an ascending player who is ready to contribute now.
Projected Winner: Quinton Dial
1. Right Defensive End
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Competitors: Glenn Dorsey, Darnell Dockett, Tank Carradine
According to Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee, the 49ers plan on starting Glenn Dorsey at right defensive end, Justin Smith’s old position. And they plan on replacing Dorsey with Tank Carradine in the sub-packages. Darnell Dockett probably will be a backup as he continues to rehab a torn ACL.
Dorsey is an outstanding nose tackle and an outstanding run-defender at any position on the defensive line. But he is just a run-defender. In 82 NFL games, he has made just six sacks.
The opposing offense doesn’t always run on 1st-and-10. When they pass, the 49ers will get no pass rush from Dorsey, their right defensive end. That’s not good. The right defensive end should be more than just a run defender. Justin Smith was more than just a run defender.
Third-year player Carradine is more than just a run defender. He's a much better pass-rusher than Dorsey. Carradine should win this job if he stuffs the run during the preseason.
Projected Winner: Tank Carradine
Stats courtesy of ProFootballFocus.com unless otherwise noted.
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